2020年全球经济展望.pdf

We expect the global growth slowdown that began in early 2018 to end soon, in nresponse to easier financial conditions and an end to the trade escalation. Although annual-average GDP growth is likely to rise only modestly from 3.1 in 2019 to 3.4 in 2020, this conceals a more pronounced sequential pattern of slowing growth this year andin our forecastgradually rising growth next year. The risk of a global recession remains more limited than suggested by the flat nyield curve, which partly reflects a structural decline in the term premium, and the low unemployment rate, whose predictive value for inflation and aggressive monetary tightening has fallen. We also take comfort from the absence of significant private sector financial deficits in all but a few advanced economies. Our confidence that growth will improve sequentially is highest in the US, where ndemand is most responsive to financial conditions, and the UK, where we expect the Brexit drag to reverse and fiscal policy to ease. We look for a more gradual pickup in Europe, where the fiscal boost is likely to remain too limited, and Japan, where we are watching carefully for a negative impact from the October consumption tax hike. We expect growth in China to slow modestly from just above 6 to just below, in line with gradually decelerating potential. Across many advanced economies, we expect continued labor market nimprovement and upward pressure on wage growth, which is likely to push unit labor costs above central bank inflation targets. However, the pass-through to core price inflation should remain limited because the price Phillips curve is much flatter than the wage Phillips curve given stable inflation expectations. In our baseline forecast, most DM central banks stay on hold in 2020. At least in nthe early part of the year, however, the risk is on the side of further easing, especially in the Euro area and Japan where growth is weak and inflation far below target. We also expect further cuts in a number of EMs and smaller DMs. Slightly better growth, limited recession risk, and friendly monetary policy should nprovide a decent background for financial markets in the early part of 2020. However, concerns about the impact of higher corporate taxes on profits could rise in the runup to the US presidential election. Even aside from politics, rising wage growth looks set to reduce profit margins over the next several years.Jan Hatzius 1212902-0394 | Goldman Sachs 1 or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/co-managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; for equity securities, market making and/or specialist role. Goldman Sachs trades or may trade as a principal in debt securities or in related derivatives of issuers discussed in this report. 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