2020年世界发展报告.pdf

A World Bank Group Flagship Report© 2020 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW , Washington, DC 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000; Internet www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 2 3 4 22 21 20 19 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of cutive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other ination shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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ISSN, ISBN, e-ISBN, and DOI Softcover ISSN 0163-5085 ISBN 978-1-4648-1457-0 e-ISBN 978-1-4648-1495-2 DOI 10.1596/978-1-4648-1457-0 Hardcover ISSN 0163-5085 ISBN 978-1-4648-1494-5 DOI 10.1596/978-1-4648-1494-5 Cover image The cover image is a screen capture of an interactive visualization depicting the flow of international trade, with each dot representing US1 billion in value. The interactive map was created by data visualization expert Max Galka, from his Metrocosm blog http// . Used with the permission of Max Galka; further permission required for reuse. Cover design Kurt Niedermeier, Niedermeier Design, Seattle, Washington. Interior design George Kokkinidis, Design Language, Brooklyn, New York, and Kurt Niedermeier, Niedermeier Design, Seattle, Washington. Library of Congress Control Number 2019952802Contents | iii xi Foreword xiii Preface xv Acknowledgments xvii Abbreviations xx Part I Overview 1 Overview 2 The expansion of GVCs could stall unless policy predictability is restored 3 GVCs boost incomes, create better jobs, and reduce poverty 3 The gains from GVCs are not equally shared, and GVCs can hurt the environment 4 New technologies on balance promote trade and GVCs 4 National policies can boost GVC participation 6 Other policies can help ensure GVC benefits are shared and sustainable 7 International cooperation supports beneficial GVC participation 8 Notes 9 References 12 Part II Global value chains What are they 14 Chapter 1 The new face of trade 16 What is a global value chain 19 The evolution of GVC participation 23 How are GVCs distributed across regions 26 Which countries have accounted for most of the GVC expansion 26 How are GVCs distributed across sectors 30 A few large trading firms account for most GVC trade 34 Notes 34 References 36 Chapter 2 Drivers of participation 39 Factor endowments matter 46 Market size matters 49 Geography matters 53 Institutional quality matters 54 Transitioning up the GVC typology 59 Notes 60 References Contentsiv | Contents 64 Part III What are the effects of GVCs 66 Chapter 3 Consequences for development 68 Economic growth 76 Employment 80 Poverty and shared prosperity 82 Distribution of gains 90 The gender gap 92 Taxation 93 Notes 96 References 102 Chapter 4 Macroeconomic implications 103 Synchronizing economic activity 105 Propagating shocks 106 Synchronizing inflation 107 Reducing the effect of duations 111 Mitigating trade diversion and increasing trade 112 The return of protectionism 115 Notes 115 References 118 Chapter 5 Impact on the environment 119 Scale effects of trade and growth 124 Changes in the composition of production 128 Relational GVCs and production techniques 130 Green goods 132 Notes 132 References 136 Chapter 6 Technological change 137 Declining trade costs 146 New products 147 Automation anxiety 153 Openness and innovation 153 Export-led industrialization 154 Notes 154 References 158 Part IV What domestic policies facilitate fruitful participation 160 Chapter 7 Policies to enhance participation 162 Facilitating participation 175 Policies to enhance benefits 186 Policies for upgrading 189 Notes 190 References 194 Chapter 8 Policies for inclusion and sustainability 195 Sharing the gains 202 Managing adjustment 204 Environmental sustainability 209 Notes 210 References Contents | v 214 Part V How can international cooperation help 216 Chapter 9 Cooperation on trade 218 The case for cooperation 221 Deepening trade cooperation 235 Notes 236 References 238 Chapter 10 Cooperation beyond trade 239 Taxes 242 Regulation 246 Competition policy 251 Infrastructure 254 Notes 255 References 259 Appendix A Databases used in this Report 265 Appendix B Glossary Boxes 3.5 79 GVC participation can lead to indirect welfare improvements for women 3.6 82 Does GVC participation lead to human capital accumulation 3.7 89 Home-based work in GVCs 4.1 105 The Japanese earthquake and the costs of supply chain disruptions 4.2 108 Blunting the effects of duation on Turkey’s exports 4.3 110 Trade imbalances in using value- added data 5.1 125 The ban on plastics by China disrupted the waste GVC 5.2 127 Virtual water 5.3 128 Toward sustainable fashion 5.4 130 Demanding environmental standards in GVC upstream firms 6.1 139 Digital innovation and agricultural trade 6.2 143 GVC linkages and cross-border connections between people move together 6.3 150 Fully automating the production of hearing aids 6.4 152 Mexico and technological change 7.1 164 Determinants of efficiency-seeking investment 7.2 169 Foreign services firms in India’s manufacturing value chains 1.1 17 Defining global value chains 1.2 17 Measuring global value chains 1.3 22 Types of GVC participation 1.4 30 A firm-level approach to GVCs 2.1 38 Vietnam’s integration in the electronics GVC 2.2 40 Modeling results on the drivers of GVC participation 2.3 45 Sharing suppliers How foreign firms benefit domestic firms 2.4 45 How liberalizing trade and FDI helped China move up in GVCs 2.5 49 Trade preferences as catalytic aid 2.6 55 PTAs and GVCs The role of rules of origin 2.7 57 Most important determinants of GVC participation, by taxonomy group and region 3.1 71 Dynamic estimations of the relationship between GVC participation and per capita income growth 3.2 73 Mining GVCs New opportunities and old obstacles for local suppliers from developing countries 3.3 75 Assessing outcomes of GVC participation using event studies 3.4 76 Skills and upgrading in Cambodia’s apparel value chainvi | Contents 7.3 176 Local content requirements are a mismatch in the global auto industry 7.4 178 Supplier development programs help deliver inclusive, sustainable GVCs 7.5 180 Building a workforce with industry- specific skills Penang Skills Development Centre 7.6 183 Clarifying the terminology SEZs versus industrial parks 7.7 184 Comparing SEZ experiences China, India, and Sub-Saharan Africa 7.8 188 Costa Rica moves into the medical devices GVC 8.1 197 Taking advantage of comparative advantage Agribusiness GVCs deliver more and better jobs in Côte d’Ivoire and Rwanda 8.2 199 A tale of two economic zones Initiatives to promote women’s employment in garment GVCs in Bangladesh and Jordan 8.3 201 Transparency promotes compliance with labor standards and improves working conditions 8.4 206 Cost-effectiveness and equitability of environmental regulation 8.5 208 Green industrial parks support sustainable production and attract better investors 9.1 218 Special and differential treatment for developing countries 9.2 219 A story of the demise of most-favored- nation status foretold 9.3 231 The impact of Brexit on GVC trade 9.4 234 How the African Continental Free Trade Area can support integration into GVCs 10.1 252 International cooperation on transport infrastructure Figures O.1 2 GVC trade grew rapidly in the 1990s but stagnated after the 2008 global financial crisis O.2 3 GDP per capita grows most rapidly when countries break into limited manufacturing GVCs O.3 4 Automation in industrial countries has boosted imports from developing countries O.4 5 Transitioning to more sophisticated participation in GVCs Some examples of national policy 1.1 16 Where do bicycles come from 1.2 19 GVC trade grew rapidly in the 1990s but stagnated after the 2008 global financial crisis 1.3 20 The ICT revolution spurred the emergence of GVCs 1.4 20 From 1948 to 2016, tariffs dropped thanks to multilateral and regional trade agreements 1.5 21 Country transitions between different types of GVC participation, 1990–2015 1.6 23 Average backward and forward GVC participation across taxonomy groups 1 .7 24 GVC activities increased globally and regionally from 1990 to 2015 1.8 25 Global production networks are organized around three main regions, 2018 1.9 26 A handful of countries drove global GVC expansion from 1990 to 2015 1.10 27 GVC participation by sector, 1995 and 2011 1.11 28 A handful of sectors drove global GVC expansion from 1995 to 2011 1.12 29 Services are playing a growing role in GVCs 1.13 29 GVCs expanded in both the agriculture and food industries from 1990 to 2015 1.14 32 Firms that both import and export dominate GVC participation 1.15 33 Foreign direct investment accompanied the fragmentation of production from 1970 to 2018 B2.1.1 38 Vietnam’s backward GVC integration increased from 2000 to 2015 as tariffs declined and foreign direct investment expandedContents | vii B2.2.1 40 What explains backward and forward GVC participation B2.2.2 42 What explains a country-sector’s GVC participation levels and gross exports 2.1 43 Countries specializing in limited manufacturing rely on low labor costs, and countries specializing in commodities derive almost a fifth of GDP from natural resources 2.2 43 Increases in labor costs and capital stock accompany upgrading in GVCs B2.3.1 45 In Bangladesh, local suppliers grew as FDI grew from 1985 to 2003 B2.4.1 45 Domestic value added in exports from China increased from 2000 to 2007 2.3 46 FDI increases and tariff declines accompany GVC upgrading 2.4 48 Manufacturing tariffs are high and preferential trading partners few in countries connected to commodity GVCs B2.5.1 50 Four stories of AGOA apparel exports from Africa 2.5 52 Connectivity is associated with specialization in more advanced GVCs 2.6 52 Improving customs and introducing electronic systems are as important as infrastructure for African trade B2.6.1 56 Mauritius’s exports of apparel to the United States, by origin of fabric, 2001–15 3.1 69 GVC participation is associated with growth in exports and incomes 3.2 69 GVC participation is associated with growth in productivity 3.3 70 Firms that both export and import are more productive B3.1.1 71 GVC trade is associated with larger per capita income than non-GVC trade 3.4 72 GVC firms with relationships receive more assistance 3.5 74 GDP per capita grows most rapidly when countries break into limited manufacturing GVCs 3.6 77 In Ethiopia, GVC firms are relatively more capital-intensive but their employment is increasing fastest 3.7 78 In Mexico, employment expansion is more strongly linked to GVC expansion than non-GVC trade 3.8 79 Worldwide, GVC firms hire more women than non-GVC firms 3.9 81 The boost to wages is largest in countries after they first enter limited manufacturing GVCs 3.10 81 GVC participation is associated with poverty reduction 3.11 82 In municipalities in Mexico, the expanded presence of GVC firms is more strongly associated with poverty reduction than the presence of firms that export only or import only 3.12 83 In Vietnam, poverty reduction was greater in locations with a higher presence of GVC firms 3.13 84 Rising income inequality is a greater problem for countries breaking into the innovation stages of GVC engagement 3.14 84 A majority worldwide views trade and international business ties positively, but skepticism grew from 2002 to 2014 3.15 85 Increasing GVC participation is associated with rising markups in developed countries but falling markups in developing countries 3.16 85 In Ethiopia, firms entering GVCs experience greater declines in markups, 2000–2014 3.17 86 GVCs have contributed to the declining labor share within countries 3.18 90 Women are more likely to be production workers and less likely to own or manage GVC firms 3.19 91 Gender equality in business regulations ensures that women are more fairly rewarded 3.20 92 Corporate income tax rates have declined by almost 50 percent since 1990 3.21 93 As a share of GDP , non-OECD countries lose the most from profit shifting 4.1 104 In all income groups, countries’ economic activity has become more synchronized since the mid-1990s 4.2 104 Greater synchrony of economic activity is associated with GVCs 4.3 106 The synchrony of inflation increased between 1988 and 2010viii | Conte