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Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2011, 7 2 97J103 97.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null7.null.null2.null2011.null3.nullADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCHVo l. 7 No. 2March 2011.nullnonmarkingreturn “1673-1719 2011 02-0097-07.nullnonmarkingreturn “ 2 Institute of GeographicSciences and Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 3 Graduate University ofChinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaAbstract The spatiotemporal characteristics of rainy season precipitation for the five climatic subareas of NorthwestChina arid region NCAR under the background of global warming were investigated by using the daily precipitationdata at 77 representative stations from 1961 to 2007, and future trends of the precipitation in the next decades wereprojected as well. The results are summarized as follows. 1 The precipitation in the NCAR presented significantinterannual and interdecadal variabilities. The rainfall in western NCAR exhibited obvious increasing trends, especiallyin northern Xinjiang and the Yili River valley. There were generally two interannual periodic oscillations of five- tosix-year and two- to three-year and one interdecadal cycle of eight- to eleven-year in rainy season precipitation timeseries in most areas of the NCAR, but in the Hexi Corridor, the thirteen- to fourteen-year long cycle dominated theinterdecadal variability. 2 The abrupt change dates of precipitation in the five subareas were distinctively differentfrom each other. The abrupt change from less to more than normal occurred in southern Xinjiang in the early 1980s,and then reached northern Xinjiang in the middle 1980s, the opposite trend abrupt change occurred in the Yili Rivervalley and the Hexi Corridor region in the early 1990s, however no remarkable trend change was detected in the AlxaPlateau. 3 In the next interdecadal cycle, the precipitation will sustain the less than normal regime until the year of2015 in western NCAR, afterwards return to the more than normal regime; while the precipitation may become morethan normal in the next eight to eleven years in the Alxa Plateau.Key words global warming; Northwest China arid region; precipitation; future trend
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