全球平均温度序列的比较.pdf

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Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2011, 7 2 85J89 85.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null7.null.null2.null2011.null3.null ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCHVo l. 7 No. 2March 2011.nullnonmarkingreturn “1673-1719 2011 02-0085-05.nullnonmarkingreturn “ 2 Department ofAtmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; 3 TheCenter for Earth System Science Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaAbstract Studies on the reconstruction of global mean temperature series are reviewed. Three series, HadCRUT3,NCDC, and GISS, are described in detail. Satellite data have been used since 1982 in the latter two series. NCDCseries provides the most complete coverage among the three series by using statistic interpolation technique. It isfound that the pause of global warming in 2000J2009, which is revealed in HadCRUT3 series, is caused by theincompleteness of data coverage. Missing of data over the Arctic reduced the positive anomaly of global meantemperature, for where the local warming was very high recently. GISS and NCDC series show much higher warmingtrends during the last 10 years. Three series give the nearly same warming trend 0.70J0.75.null /100a of global meantemperature for 1910J2009.Key words global mean; temperature; HadCRUT3; NCDC; GISS[8]Jones P D, Raper S C B, Wigley T M L. Southern Hemisphere surface airtemperature variations 1851J1984 [J]. J Climate Appl Meteor, 1986,25 1213J1230Hansen J, Lebedeff S. Global surface temperature update through 1987[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 1988, 15 323J326Vinnikov K Y, Groisman P Y, Lugina K M. Empirical data oncontemporary global climatic changes temperature and precipitation[J]. J Climate, 1990, 3 662J677Parker D E, Jones P D, Bevan A, et al. Interdecadal changes of surfacetemperature since the 19th century [J]. J Geophys Res, 1994, 99 14373J14399Rayner N A, Parker D E, Horton E B, et al. Global analyses of sea surfacetemperature, sea ice, and nigh marine air temperature since the latenineteenth century [J]. J Geophys Res, 2003, 108, 4407, doi 10.1029/2002 J D002670Jones P D, Moberg A. Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperaturevariations an extensive revision and an update to 2001[J]. J Climate,2003, 16 206J223Brohan P, Kennedy J J, Harris I, et al. Uncertainty estimates in regionaland global observed temperature changes a new data set from 1850 [J].J Geophys Res, 2006, 111, D12106, doi 101029/2005 J D006548Rayner N A, Brohan P, Parker D E, et al. Improved analyses of changesand uncertainties in sea-surface temperature measured in-situ since themid-nineteenth century [J]. J Climate, 2006, 19 446J469Smith T M, Reynolds R W. A global merged land-air-sea surfacetemperature reconstruction based on historical observations 1880J1997[J]. J Climate, 2005, 18 2021J2036Smith T M, Reynolds R W. Extended reconstruction of global sea surfacetemperatures based on COADS data 1854J1997 [J]. J Climate, 2003,16 1495J1510Smith T M, Reynolds R W. Improved extended reconstruction of SST1854J1997 [J]. J Climate, 2004, 17 2466J2477van den Dool H M, Saha S, Johansson A.null. Empirical orthogonalteleconnections [J]. J Climate, 2000, 13 1421J1435Peterson T C, Vose R S. An overview of the global historical climatologynetwork temperature database [J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1997, 782837J2849Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, et al. Global surface temperature change[J]. Rev Geophys, 2010, 48, RG4004, doi 10.1029/2010RG000345Reynolds R W, Rayner N A, Smith T M, et al. An improved in situ andsatellite SST analysis for climate [J]. J Climate, 2002, 15 1609J1625Knight J, Kennedy J, Folland C, et al. Do global temperature trends overthe last decade falsify climate prediction [J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc,2009, 90 8 S22J23Kerr R A. What happened to global warming Scientists say just wait abit [J]. Science, 2009, 326 28J29[18][19][20][15][13][10][11][9][12][16][17][22][7][14][21][6]
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