长期气候变化——IPCC第五次评估报告解读.pdf

fm.nullnonmarkingreturn “tdf.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .null10.null.null1.null 2014.null1.null PROGRESSUS INQUISITIONES DE MUTATIONE CLIMATIS Vol. 10 No. 1 January 2014 doi10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.01.012 .nullnonmarkingreturn ,.nullnonmarkingreturn . .nullnonmarkingreturn “IPCC .nullnonmarkingreturn “[J]. .nullnonmarkingreturn “, 2014, 10 1 56-59 .nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullfm.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn IPCC.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullAR5.null .null .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./012 .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullCMIP5.null.null46.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*.nullnonmarkingreturn 21.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./0.null .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullAR4.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullCMIP3.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “AR5.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-..nullRCP.null AR4.nullnonmarkingreturn “SRES.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “*, .nullnonmarkingreturn N.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn CMIP5.nullnonmarkingreturn “CMIP5.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-..nullRCP.null x1z .null AR5.nullnonmarkingreturn “4.nullRCP.nullnonmarkingreturn “21.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “AR4.nullnonmarkingreturn 3.nullSRES.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullB1.nullA1B .nullA2.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn 2.nullnonmarkingreturn “ RCP2.6.nullnonmarkingreturn “B1.nullnonmarkingreturn 2 W/m 2 .null.nullnonmarkingreturn 21 .nullnonmarkingreturn “0.3.nullnonmarkingreturn AR4.nullnonmarkingreturn1.1.nullnonmarkingreturn.null RCP.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,.null .nullnonmarkingreturn 21.nullnonmarkingreturn SRES.nullnonmarkingreturn “CO 2 .null21.null .nullnonmarkingreturn “nonmarkingreturn .null.nullnonmarkingreturnNMMMUN .nullnonmarkingreturn .null 2013-12-07.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .null 2013-12-28 .nullnonmarkingreturn .null.nullnonmarkingreturn “*E2010CB950903F.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “E.nullnonmarkingreturnF.nullnonmarkingreturn EGYHY201306019F.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “E2012BAC20B05F .nullnonmarkingreturn .null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn ““*.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn gaoxj .nullnonmarkingreturn “IPCC.nullnonmarkingreturn “ Long-Term Climate Change Interpretation of IPCC Fifth Assessment Report .nullnonmarkingreturn “80.null90.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./0123 .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn AR4.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.null x2z .nullCMIP3.nullCMIP5.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.null*,.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./21.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,-. .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./01 .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullAR4.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null x3z .null.null .nullRCP.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “* .nullAR4.nullnonmarkingreturn “ O.nullnonmarkingreturn “ 21.nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-. .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “RCP.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn 1986.null2005.nullnonmarkingreturn2081.null2100.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturnCMIP5.nullnonmarkingreturn “5.null95.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn 0.3.null1.7.null.nullRCP2.6.nullnonmarkingreturn1.1.null2.6.null .nullRCP4.5.nullnonmarkingreturn1.4.null3.1.null.nullRCP6.0.null.null2.6.null4.8.null .nullRCP8.5.null.nullnonmarkingreturn1.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “RCP4.5.nullRCP6.0 .nullRCP8.5.nullnonmarkingreturn “2081.null2100.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “1.5.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn 1.null 57 .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “IPCC.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn RCP6.0.nullRCP8.5.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “2.null .null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullRCP2.6.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn 2.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullRCP8.5.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .null2081.null2100.null .nullnonmarkingreturn 4.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn RCP.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .null1 .nullnonmarkingreturnCMIP5.nullnonmarkingreturn “*.nullnonmarkingreturn .null1986.null2005.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn RCP.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “5.null95.nullnonmarkingreturn “2100.null .nullnonmarkingreturn “nonmarkingreturn*,-./01.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn [4] Fig. 1 Time series of global annual mean surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1986J2005 from CMIP5 multi-models. Projections are shown for each RCP for the multi-model mean solid lines and the 5J95 range across the distribution of individual models shading. Discontinuities at 2100 are due to different numbers of models pering the extension runs beyond the 21st century and have no physical meaning [4] .nullnonmarkingreturn “*.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn .null.nullnonmarkingreturn F.null.null21.nullnonmarkingreturn “1.4.null1.7 .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “*.nullAMOC.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*,-./0.null .nullnonmarkingreturn “.null *,-./.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “nonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “*.null .nullnonmarkingreturn “*.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .null 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