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2017 World Energy Outlook iea.org/weo/ WEO_2017_Page1_WEB.indd 1 23/10/2017 152442 000_CoverPage_WEO.indd 1 23/10/2017 153254 Chapter 1 Introduction and scopeINTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency IEA, an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its primary mandate was – and is – two-fold to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 29 member countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. The Agency’s aims include the following objectives n Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all s of energy; in particular, through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions. n Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. n Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data. n Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. n Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders. IEA member countriesAustraliaAustria BelgiumCanada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA. © OECD/IEA, 2017 International Energy Agency Website www.iea.org Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t this default setting for the energy system is a benchmark against which the impact of “new” policies can be measured. The New Policies Scenario, our central scenario, incorporates existing energy policies as well as an assessment of the results likely to stem from the implementation of announced policy intentions. Among such announcements over the last year the change in policy orientation in the United States; a wealth of additional detail on China’s plans for an “energy revolution”; a stronger commitment to renewables and electric mobility in India; and plans to shift the power mix in Korea in favour of gas and renewables. Alongside these, the Sustainable Development Scenario appears for the first time, setting out a pathway to achieve the key energy-related components of the United Nations Sustainable Development agenda universal access to modern energy by 2030; urgent action to tackle climate change in line with the Paris Agreement; and measures to improve poor air quality. The principal determinants of energy demand growth are energy policies, which differ between scenarios, and the rates at which economic activity and population grow, which do not. In the WEO-2017, global GDP is assumed to grow at a compound average rate of 3.4 per year, close to the level in last year’s Outlook. The world population is assumed to rise from 7.4 billion in 2016 to 9.1 billion in 2040. The price of energy and the costs of key energy technologies evolve differently in the various scenarios, depending on levels of deployment and on supply-demand balances. A common thread however is that costs for key low-carbon technologies – notably solar, wind and batteries – continue to fall in the Outlook period, with major implications for investment trends. The outlook for nuclear has meanwhile dimmed somewhat, in response to signs of waning support in some countries. Prices for oil and natural gas both rise from today’s levels, although the extent of this increase has been revised downwards since the WEO-2016. Downward pressure on prices is largely due to higher US production of tight oil and shale gas, for which costs have come down and resource estimates have increased. © OECD/IEA, 201734 World Energy Outlook 2017 | Global Energy Trends 1.1 The scenarios This year’s publication marks the 40th anniversary since the first World Energy Outlook WEO in 1977, and the 20th edition since it became a regular annual publication in 1998. 1While the main purpose of this analysis – as usual – is to look forward at possible pathways for global energy, this is also a moment to look back at how the Outlook has evolved. The first Outlook in 1977 appeared in the aftermath of the first oil embargo in 1973-1974 and was unsurprisingly a product of its time. The focus was on oil 45 of the global energy mix at the time, versus 32 today and on the countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD 71 of global oil demand at the time, 48 today the emphasis of the analysis was on how much oil they might consume over the Outlook period to 1985 and where they would get it from. Nonetheless, some essential parameters for the analysis were there from the start. The intention was not to predict the future, but to understand what difference policies could make to that future. There was a recognition of the centrality of energy security. And there were already alternative policy scenarios, looking at the impact of energy conservation measures as they were called at the time and the scope for alternative sources of oil supply within the OECD, in order to avoid some of the oil security risks projected in the reference case. Fast-forward twenty years and the WEO had already taken on many of the features that are familiar today. For better or worse, it was bigger weighing in at more than 450 pages versus the 100 or so pages in 1977 and based on a new World Energy Model WEM covering all regions and fuels – the distant forerunner of the model used today. A central concern was still the outlook for oil markets and oil market security, but gas security also featured strongly “Our work on natural gas suggests no reserve limitations on production at world level before 2020, although increasing use of unconventional gas in North America is likely.” IEA, 1998. But the most noticeable new element was the attention given to the environmental impacts of energy use, with extensive analysis of energy-related carbon dioxide CO 2 emissions and the implementation of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol “New policies will be required if the use of nuclear power and renewable energy sources is to help reduce fossil-fuel consumption and greenhouse-gas emissions [] unit costs of renewable energy must be reduced.” IEA, 1998. The underlying philosophy and intent of the Outlook is captured well in the preface to the 1998 edition. In the words of the then IEA cutive Director “The objective of this book is not to state what the IEA believes will happen to the energy system in future. The IEA holds no such single view. Rather, the aim is to discuss the most important factors and uncertainties likely to affect the energy system over the period to 2020 [] In fact, the IEA expects that the future for world energy will be quite different from that described in the business-as-usual BAU projection. This is partly because economic growth, energy prices, 1. The WEO was published in 1977, 1982 and from 1993 to 1996, and then again annually from 1998 onwards. All the WEOs since 1994 are available to download from www.iea.org/weo/previousworldenergyoutlooks. © OECD/IEA, 2017Chapter 1 | Introduction and scope 35 1 technology and consumer behaviour will turn out to be different from those assumed for the BAU projection. The most striking difference will most likely occur because governments in developed countries will want to change things.” Although we now think in terms of all governments, not just those in developed countries, it is this ability to change things on the part of governments and others, including energy companies that is at the heart of the WEO process. The intention is to in decision-makers as they consider their options, not to predict the outcomes of their deliberations. Box 1.1 ⊳ How has the World Energy Outlook evolved since 1977 Although the underlying purpose of the work has remained remarkably constant, much has changed in the Outlook since it made its first appearance 40 years ago. Up until 2010, the structure tended to focus on a Reference Scenario, in which policy assumptions were fixed at the present day, with no account taken of announced intentions or targets. This was often accompanied by an alternative scenario to examine the impact of different policy choices to address a specific energy security or environmental issue. In 2010, the main focus shifted to the New Policies Scenario and the old Reference Scenario moved to the background, becoming the Current Policies Scenario. The 450 Scenario made its initial appearance as a pathway to limit climate change to below 2 degrees Celsius °C, cementing the position of climate and other environmental issues at the heart of the analysis and becoming a global benchmark for climate trajectories. Since then, scenarios have addressed a range of other uncertainties over prices and the deployment of specific technologies. The geographical reach of the analysis has expanded considerably. From an early focus on the OECD member countries, the WEO has broadened its horizons to provide a truly global outlook. Since 2005, this has involved an annual in-depth country or regional focus, starting that year with the Middle East and North Africa, and since then including China and India 2007, Russia 2011, Iraq 2012, Brazil 2013, sub-Saharan Africa 2014, India 2015 and Mexico 2016. Underlining the importance of Asia to the future of global energy, this year the geographic focus again turns to China, ten years on from the 2007 analysis. The thematic reach of the analysis has also grown. The annual “fuel focus” was added in 2008 and has since covered all the major fuels and technologies, including energy efficiency. Access to modern energy has become a signature issue, with systematic monitoring of the numbers of the global population without basic energy services, together with analysis of the policies, technologies and investment required to close this gap. The Outlook has likewise taken a lead in highlighting and quantifying fossil-fuel consumption subsidies, and the links between energy and international competitiveness, air pollution and water use. © OECD/IEA, 201736 World Energy Outlook 2017 | Global Energy Trends In addition, the WEO has evolved to include the regular appearance of special reports alongside the main Outlook. The first of these, in 2011, asked the question “Are we entering a Golden Age of Gas”. The WEO-2017 series, in addition to this Outlook, includes two special reports a regional energy outlook for Southeast Asia and an in-depth analysis of the prospects for universal access to modern energy by 2030. There are however some aspects of the WEO that have not changed. One is the focus on objective data and dispassionate analysis. Another is the centrality of energy security, which is an important dimension of all the three main scenarios discussed in the WEO-2017. Given that there is no single story about the future of global energy, the WEO continues to use a scenario-based approach to highlight the key choices, consequences and contingencies that lie ahead, and to illustrate how the course of the energy system might be affected by changing some of the key variables, chief among them the energy policies adopted by governments around the world. This approach continues to be underpinned by a system-wide modelling approach that covers all fuels, technologies and regions, providing insights into how changes in one area might have consequences often unintended for others. The main scenarios in this Outlook are the New Policies Scenario, the Current Policies Scenario and the Sustainable Development Scenario. Described in more detail in the next section, they are differentiated primarily by the assumptions that they make about government policies. The New Policies Scenario is designed to show where existing policies as well as announced policy intentions might lead the energy sector. The Current Policies Scenario provides a point of comparison by considering only those policies and measures enacted into legislation by mid-2017. And the Sustainable Development Scenario, a new scenario in the WEO-2017, examines what it would take to achieve the main energy-related components of the “2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development” adopted in 2015 by member states of the United Nations. The three energy-related goals are to achieve universal energy access to modern energy by 2030; to take urgent action to combat climate change; and to dramatically reduce the pollutant emissions that cause poor air quality. References to all of the scenarios are interspersed throughout the chapters. However, the primary focus, as in past editions, is on the New Policies Scenario, which reflects both currently adopted measures and, to a degree, declared policy intentions. That this scenario enjoys most of the limelight in the Outlook is often taken as an implicit sign that this is – despite our protestations to the contrary – a forecast. However, the IEA does not have a long-term forecast Spotlight. © OECD/IEA, 2017Chapter 1 | Introduction and scope 37 1 New Policies Scenario The New Policies Scenario is the central scenario of this Outlook, and aims to provide a sense of where today’s policy ambitions seem likely to take the energy sector. It incorporates not just the policies and measures that governments around the world have already put in place, but also the likely effects of announced policies, as expressed in official targets or plans. The Nationally Determined Contributions NDCs made for the Paris Agreement provide important guidance as to these policy intentions in many countries, although in some cases these are now supplemented or superseded by more recent announcements – including the decision by the US administration to withdraw from the Agreement. Our reading of the national policy environment is also influenced by policies and targets adopted by sub-national authorities, i.e. by state-level entities in federal systems, by cities and municipalities, as well as the commitments made by the private sector see the Spotlight in Chapter 3. The way that policy intentions, including th
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