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The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/tc/ Source IEA. All rights reserved. International Energy Agency Website www.iea.org IEA member countries Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA IEA association countries Brazil China India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYGlobal Energy and CO2 Status Report 2018 Energy Demand PAGE | 3 Key Findings 2018 Global energy consumption in 2018 increased at nearly twice the average rate of growth since 2010, driven by a robust global economy and higher heating and cooling needs in some parts of the world. Demand for all fuels increased, led by natural gas, even as solar and wind posted double-digit growth. Higher electricity demand was responsible for over half of the growth in energy needs. Energy efficiency saw lacklustre improvement. Energy-related CO2 emissions rose 1.7 to a historic high of 33.1 Gt CO2. While emissions from all fossil fuels increased, the power sector accounted for nearly two-thirds of emissions growth. Coal use in power alone surpassed 10 Gt CO2, mostly in Asia. China, India, and the United States accounted for 85 of the net increase in emissions, while emissions declined for Germany, Japan, Mexico, France and the United Kingdom. Oil demand rose by 1.3 in 2018, led by strong growth in the United States. The start-up of large petrochemical projects drove product demand, which partially offset a slowdown in growth in gasoline demand. The United States and China showed the largest overall growth, while demand fell in Japan and Korea and was stagnant in Europe. Natural gas consumption grew by an estimated 4.6, its largest increase since 2010 when gas demand bounced back from the global financial crisis. This second consecutive year of strong growth, following a 3 rise in 2017, was driven by growing energy demand and substitution from coal. The switch from coal to gas accounted for over one-fifth of the rise in gas demand. The United States led the growth followed by China. Coal demand grew for a second year, but its role in the global mix continued to decline. Last year s 0.7 increase was significantly slower than the 4.5 annual growth rate seen in the period 2000- 10. But while the share of coal in primary energy demand and in electricity generation slowly continues to decrease, it still remains the largest source of electricity and the second-largest source of primary energy. Renewables increased by 4 in 2018, accounting for almost one-quarter of global energy demand growth. The power sector led the gains, with renewables-based electricity generation increasing at its fastest pace this decade. Solar PV, hydropower, and wind each accounted for about a third of the growth, with bioenergy accounting for most of the rest. Renewables covered almost 45 of the world s electricity generation growth, now accounting for over 25 of global power output. Electricity demand rose by 4, nearly twice as fast as overall energy demand, and at its fastest pace since 2010. Renewables and nuclear power met the majority of the growth in demand. Still, generation from coal- and gas-fired power plants increased considerably, driving up CO2 emissions from the sector by 2.5. Energy efficiency across the global economy continued to improve, with global primary energy intensity falling by 1.3. But this was lower than improvement rates seen in recent years. Although efficiency was still the biggest source of carbon dioxide emissions abatement in the energy sector, 2018 marked the third consecutive year in which the improvement rate for energy efficiency slowed. Global Energy and CO2 Status Report 2018 Energy Demand PAGE | 4 Energy Demand Global energy consumption in 2018 increased at nearly twice the average rate of growth since 2010, driven by a robust global economy and higher heating and cooling needs in some parts of the world. Demand for all fuels increased, led by natural gas, even as solar and wind posted double- digit growth. Higher electricity demand was responsible for over half of the growth in energy needs. Energy efficiency saw lacklustre improvement. As a result of higher energy consumption, CO2 emissions rose 1.7 last year and hit a new record. Average annual global primary energy demand growth by fuel, 2010-18 Figure 1.Energy consumption worldwide grew by 2.3 in 2018, nearly twice the average rate of growth since 2010, driven by a robust global economy as well as higher heating and cooling needs in some parts of the world. The biggest gains came from natural gas, which emerged as the fuel of choice last year, accounting for nearly 45 of the increase in total energy demand. Demand for all fuels rose, with fossil fuels meeting nearly 70 of the growth for the second year running. Renewables grew at double-digit pace, but still not fast enough to meet the increase in demand for electricity around the world. As a result of higher energy consumption, global energy-related CO2 emissions increased to 33.1 Gt CO2, up 1.7. Coal-fired power generation continues to be the single largest emitter, accounting for 30 of all energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. Higher energy demand was propelled by a global economy that expanded by 3.7 in 2018, a higher pace than the average annual growth of 3.5 seen since 2010. China, the United States, and India together accounted for nearly 70 of the rise in energy demand. The United States had the largest increase in oil and gas demand worldwide. Gas consumption jumped 10 from the previous year, the fastest increase since the beginning of IEA records in 1971. The annual increase in US demand last year was equivalent to the United Kingdom s current gas consumption. 0100200300400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Nuclear Coal Oil Renewables GasGlobal Energy and CO2 Status Report 2018 Energy Demand PAGE | 5 Weather conditions last year were also responsible for almost a fifth of the increase in global energy demand as average winter and summer temperatures in some regions approached or exceeded historical records. Cold snaps drove demand for heating and, more significantly, hotter summer temperatures pushed up demand for cooling. Trends by technology Global gas demand expanded at its fastest rate since 2010, with year-on-year growth of 4.6. Oil demand grew 1.3 and coal consumption rose 0.7. Oil and coal together accounted for a quarter of global demand growth. Renewables, which grew by over 4, met around one-quarter of the growth in total primary energy demand. This was largely due to expansion in electricity generation, where renewables accounted for 45 of the growth in 2018. Figure Global primary energy demand growth by fuel and leading regions, 2017-18 Figure 2.Nuclear also grew by 3.3 in 2018, mainly as a result of new capacity in China and the restart of four reactors in Japan. Worldwide, nuclear generation met 7 of the increase in energy demand. Electricity continues to assert itself as the “fuel“ of the future, with global electricity demand growing by 4 in 2018 to more than 23 000 TWh. This rapid growth is pushing electricity towards a 20 share in total final consumption of energy. Increasing power generation was responsible for a little more than half of the growth in primary energy demand. Oil and coal grew at similar levels, with significant growth in coal-fired power generation more than offsetting declines in coal use elsewhere. Trends by region China saw the most substantial increase in energy demand, which grew 3.5 to 3 155 Mtoe, the highest since 2012. This accounted for a third of global growth. Demand expanded for all fuels, - 50050100150 Gas Renewables Oil Coal Nuclear Mtoe Other Europe Japan India China United StatesGlobal Energy and CO2 Status Report 2018 Energy Demand PAGE | 6 but with gas in the lead, replacing coal to meet heating needs and accounting for one third of growth. s to the power sector accounted for over 95 of China s growth in energy demand, as generation from all technologies, especially coal, expanded to meet an 8.5 jump in the demand for electricity. In 2018, China also had the world s largest increase in solar and wind generation. Primary energy demand growth by fuel in major energy markets, 2017-18 Figure 3.After three years of decline, energy demand in the United States rebounded in 2018, growing by 3.7, or 80 Mtoe, nearly one-quarter of global growth. A hotter-than-average summer and colder-than-average winter were responsible for around half of the increase in gas demand in the United States, as gas needs grew both for electricity generation and for heating. India saw primary energy demand increase 4 or over 35 Mtoe, accounting for 11 of global growth, the third-largest share. Growth in India was led by coal for power generation and oil for transport, the first and second biggest contributors to energy demand growth, respectively. Energy demand in Europe in 2018 followed a different path. Despite an economic expansion of 1.8, demand increased by only 0.2. An increase in energy efficiency in Germany resulted in a 2.2 drop in energy demand, with oil demand decreasing by more than 6. Demand in France and the United Kingdom increased moderately. - 300306090120 China United States India Europe Japan Mtoe Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil CoalGlobal Energy and CO2 Status Report 2018 CO 2 Emissions PAGE | 7 CO2 Emissions Driven by higher energy demand in 2018, global energy-related CO2 emissions rose 1.7 to a historic high of 33.1 Gt CO2. While emissions from all fossil fuels increased, the power sector accounted for nearly two-thirds of emissions growth. Coal use in power alone surpassed 10 Gt CO2, mostly in Asia. China, India, and the United States accounted for 85 of the net increase in emissions, while emissions declined for Germany, Japan, Mexico, France and the United Kingdom. Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by source, 1990-2018 Figure 4.Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew 1.7 in 2018 to reach a historic high of 33.1 Gt CO2. It was the highest rate of growth since 2013, and 70 higher than the average increase since 2010. Last year s growth of 560 Mt was equivalent to the total emissions from international aviation. The increase in emissions was driven by higher energy consumption resulting from a robust global economy, as well as from weather conditions in some parts of the world that led to increased energy demand for heating and cooling. CO2 emissions stagnated between 2014 and 2016, even as the global economy continued to expand. This decoupling was primarily the result of strong energy efficiency improvements and low-carbon technology deployment, leading to a decline in coal demand. But the dynamics changed in 2017 and 2018. Higher economic growth was not met by higher energy productivity, lower-carbon options did not scale fast enough to meet the rise in demand. The result was that CO2 emissions increased by nearly 0.5 for every 1 gain in global economic output compared with an increase of 0.3 on average since 2010. Renewables and nuclear energy have nonetheless made an impact, with emissions growing 25 slower than energy demand in 2018. For the first time, the IEA assessed the impact of fossil fuel use on global temperature increases. It found that CO2 emitted from coal combustion was responsible for over 0.3°C of the 1°C 05101520253035 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Gt CO 2 Other fossil fuels Other coal use Coal-fired power generationGlobal Energy and CO2 Status Report 2018 CO 2 Emissions PAGE | 8 increase in global average annual surface temperatures above pre-industrial levels. This makes coal the single largest source of global temperature increase. The global average annual concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere averaged 407.4 ppm in 2018, up 2.4 ppm since 2017. This is a major increase from pre-industrial levels, which ranged between 180 and 280 ppm. Trends by technology In fact, coal-fired power plants were the single largest contributor to the growth in emissions observed in 2018, with an increase of 2.9, or 280 Mt, compared with 2017 levels, exceeding 10 Gt for the first time. As a result, coal-fired electricity generation accounted for 30 of global CO2 emissions. The majority of that generation is found today in Asia, where average plants are only 12 years old, decades younger than their average economic lifetime of around 40 years. Despite growth in coal use, fuel switching between coal and gas accelerated in 2018, reducing the carbon intensity of global energy use. Driven by economics and policies, coal-to-gas switching avoided almost 60 Mt of coal demand, with the transition to less carbon-intensive natural gas helping avert 95 Mt of CO2 emissions. Without this coal-to-gas switch, the increase in emissions would have been more than 15 greater. This switch, most significant in China and the United States, reduced emissions by 45 Mt and 40 Mt, respectively. Change in global energy related CO2 emissions and avoided emissions, 2017-18 Figure 5.Increased use of renewables in 2018 had an even greater impact on CO2 emissions, avoiding 215 Mt of emissions, the vast majority of which is due to the transition to renewables in the power sector. The savings from renewables was led by China and Europe, together contributing two-thirds to the global total. Increased generation from nuclear power plants also reduced emissions, averting nearly 60 Mt of CO2 emissions. Overall, without the transition to low-carbon sources of energy in 2018, emissions growth would have been 50 higher. 32.032.533.033.534.0 2017 2018 GtCO 2 Economic growth Energy Efficiency Nuclear Renewables Coal-to-gas switching Other Avoided emissions Increased emissionsGlobal Energy and CO2 Status Report 2018 CO 2 Emissions PAGE | 9 Energy efficiency was the largest brake on emissions growth in 2018, but its contribution was around 40 lower than in 2017, largely because of a continued slowdown in implementing energy efficiency policies. For the first time in almost a decade, 2018 saw an increase in plans to develop large-scale carbon capture,
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