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WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2015 WMO-No. 1167 WEATHER CLIMATE WATERWMO, in collaboration with Members, began issuing annual statements on the status of the global climate in 1993. This publication was issued in collaboration with the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development ACMAD, Niger; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland; Japan Meteorological Agency JMA; Met Office Hadley Centre, United Kingdom; Climatic Research Unit CRU at the University of East Anglia, United Kingdom; Climate Prediction Center CPC, the National Centers for Environmental Ination NCEI and the National Hurricane Center NHC of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA, United States of America; National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies NASA GISS, United States; Global Precipitation Climatology Centre GPCC, Germany; National Snow and Ice Data Center NSIDC, United States; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia; Global Snow Lab, Rutgers University, United States; International Research Centre on El Niño CIIFEN, Ecuador; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute KNMI, Netherlands; Institute on Global Climate and Ecology IGCE, Russian Federation; All-Russian Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Ination – World Data Center ARIHMI-WDC, Russian Federation. Other contributors are the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services or equivalent of Argentina; Armenia; Australia; Austria; Azerbaijan; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Burkina Faso; Canada; China; Cyprus; Czech Republic; Denmark; Estonia; Fiji; Finland; France; Germany; Hong Kong, China; Hungary; India; Indonesia; Iran, Islamic Republic of; Ireland; Israel; Japan; Jordan; Libya; Mali; Mauritius; Mexico; Montenegro; Morocco; New Zealand; Niger; Norway; Pakistan; Poland; Republic of Korea; Republic of Moldova; Russian Federation; Serbia; Slovakia; Slovenia; South Africa; Spain; Sweden; Switzerland; Thailand; Turkey; Ukraine; United Kingdom; United Republic of Tanzania; and United States. The right of publication in print, electronic and any other and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to Chairperson, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization WMO 7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel. 41 0 22 730 84 03 P.O. Box 2300 Fax 41 0 22 730 80 40 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail publicationswmo.int ISBN 978-92-63-11167-8 NOTE The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion what- soever on the part of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in WMO publications with named authors are those of the authors alone and do not neces- sarily reflect those of WMO or its Members. Cover illustration S WMO-No. 1167 © World Meteorological Organization, 2016Contents Foreword 3 Introduction 4 Key findings 5 Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Precipitation and snow cover . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Oceans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 El Niño . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Cryosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Greenhouse gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 Regional extremes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 North America, Central America and the Caribbean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 South-West Pacific. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Europe and the Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Tropical cyclones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 Ozone-depleting substances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Ocean heat content increase reveals unabated global warming 22EL NIÑO 93 2 Increase above pre-industrial era; halfway to 2 °C limit One of the strongest on record; combined with climate change from human activities to drive global temperatures to new peak EXTREME EVENTS 400 ppm Heatwaves, droughts, floods, strong tropical cyclones CO 2concentrations breach symbolic benchmark in northern hemisphere spring Excess energy from greenhouse gas emissions stored in oceans; record global ocean heat content down to 2 000 m. Warmest year on record by far, 0.76 °C above 1961–1990 average 1° 20153 Foreword As part of its mandate to provide authoritative ination about weather, climate and water, the World Meteorological Organization WMO conducts annual assessments of the state of the global climate. For over two decades, those assessments have been published in the six official languages of the United Nations in order to in governments, international agencies and other WMO partners about global climate trends, and extreme and notable weather and climate events at the national and regional levels. The year 2015 will stand out in the historical record of the global climate in many ways. Modern records for heat were broken 2015 was a record warm year both globally and in many individual countries. Heatwaves were extremely intense in various part of the world, leading to thousands of deaths in India and Pakistan. Record extreme precipitation led to flooding that affected tens of thousands of people across South America, West Africa and Europe. Dry conditions in southern Africa and Brazil exacer- bated multi-year droughts. The influence of the strong El Niño that developed in the later part of 2015 can be discerned in many of the year’s weather and climate events. While much work remains to be done, advances in international collaboration, the near-real-time sharing of data, and progress in attribution science are starting to make it possible to disentangle the respective roles played by El Niño, other natural climate variations and human-induced climate change. On a more positive note, the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change adopted the groundbreaking Paris Agreement in December. The world’s gov- ernments unanimously agreed to take action in order to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. They will aim to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. The Paris Agreement raises hope that international efforts to safeguard our planet will be accelerated in order to avoid reaching a point of no return for the climate system. However, the warming trend and an increasing number of disasters are expected to continue for several decades. That emphasizes the need to invest in adaptation as well as mitigation. One of the most powerful ways to adapt to the consequences of climate change is to strengthen disaster early warning and climate services. WMO is committed to further enhancing weather and climate services and related research. But in addition to promoting scientific progress, WMO recognizes the need to build operational climate services that support climate resilience and adaptation. Some 70 countries around the world do not have the capabilities they need to generate and apply climate ination and forecasts with the required timeliness and quality of service. The Global Framework for Climate Services is assisting least developed countries, small island developing States and other vulnerable countries to strengthen their national climate and meteorological capabilities. WMO is also working with its partners to help countries protect themselves from climate risks through multi-hazard early warning sys- tems, impact-based forecasts and risk-ined warnings. I would like to take this opportunity to express my gratitude to the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the WMO Members, to international and regional data centres and institutions, and to climate experts from around the world they have all contributed to devel- oping this annual statement according to the highest scientific standards. WMO welcomes suggestions from its Members on how to further improve the Statement on the Status of the Global Climate, including in light of new requirements arising from the Paris Agreement, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.P. Taalas Secretary-General 4 Introduction The WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2015 covers many aspects of the cli- mate system, including atmospheric and ocean conditions, El Niño, the cryosphere, green- house gas concentrations, regional extremes, tropical cyclones and ozone depletion. The Statement draws on in situ and space-based observations collected through various WMO and co-sponsored programmes. It also draws on numerical objective analyses. These obser- vations are the Essential Climate Variables that have been defined by the Global Climate Observing System. The international datasets underpinning this assessment are maintained by advanced climate data, monitoring and research centres that col- laborate with WMO. In addition, data and climate ination has been collected directly from WMO Members through a special WMO survey. The global temperature analysis combines three international datasets the first HadCRUT is maintained by the Met Office Hadley Centre in collaboration with the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia both in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland; the second is kept by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Ination United States of America; and the third is maintained by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies United States. The WMO analysis also incorporates reanalysis data maintained by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and by the Japanese Meteorological Agency. Global precipitation ination is provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre Germany. The assessment of national temperature anom- alies uses data collected directly from Members through a WMO survey. Data used in this pub- lication relating to socioeconomic impacts are based on reports provided directly by Members or are taken from authoritative United Nations sources. The peer-review process involves inter- national climate experts, regional institutions dealing with climate products and experts from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. In some cases, it was necessary to cross-check with national focal points in order to validate or update ination available from global sources. NOAA HAWAII, UNITED STATES A powerful El Niño combined with rising temperatures is destroying the world’s coral reefs, causing the longest die-off event on record.5 TEMPERATURE In 2015, global warmth reached record levels as a result of the long-term rise in global tempera- tures caused mostly by humanity’s emissions of greenhouse gases combined with the effects of a developing El Niño. The global average near-surface temperature for 2015 was the warmest on record by a clear margin, according to data sources 1analysed by WMO Figure 1. The global average temperature for the year was about 0.76 ± 0.09 °C above the 1961–1990 average, and approximately 1 °C above the 1850–1900 average. Uncertainties relative to the period 1850–1900 are larger and more difficult to estimate. These estimates are based on air-temperature data gathered at meteorological stations over land, and sea-surface temperatures measured 1HadCRUT4.4.0.0 produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre in collaboration with the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia both in the United Kingdom; GISTEMP produced by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies United States; and NOAAGlobal- Temp produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Ination United States. The number quoted is an average of those three datasets. Its uncertainty is taken from the HadCRUT4 dataset. Figure 1. Global annual average temperature anomalies relative to 1961–1990 for 1850– 2015. The black line and grey shading are from the HadCRUT4 analysis produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre in collaboration with the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. The grey shading indicates the 95 confidence interval of the estimates. The orange line is the NOAAGlobalTemp dataset produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Ination NOAA NCEI. The blue line is the GISTEMP dataset produced by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies NASA GISS. Source Met Office Hadley Centre, United Kingdom, and Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom cHd di icRschUi NAAN i sfEi If i NASAdddIs i fS cS dis Key findings at sea, both by ships in the voluntary observ- ing fleet and by drifting and moored buoys. The estimates are corroborated by an analysis produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Global average temperatures can also be estimated using output from reanalyses. In a reanalysis, historical observations from many different instruments are combined using a modern weather forecasting system, in order to give a comprehensive record of weather and climate. Two long-term
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