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THE CHANGING NATURE OF WORK 2019 WORLD DEVELOPMENT REPORTTHE CHANGING NATURE OF WORK A World Bank Group Flagship Report 2019 WORLD DEVELOPMENT REPORT© 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000; Internet www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 21 20 19 18 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily refl ect the views of The World Bank, its Board of cutive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other ination shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Interior design Debra Naylor, Naylor Design, Inc., Washington, DC. v Contents Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .viiOverview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Changes in the nature of work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 What can governments do . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Organization of this study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .111. The changing nature of work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Technology generates jobs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20 How work is changing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23 A simple model of changing work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .282. The changing nature of fi rms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Superstar fi rms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37 Competitive markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41 Tax avoidance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .423. Building human capital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49 Why governments should get involved . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52 Why measurement helps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53 The human capital project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .554. Lifelong learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69 Learning in early childhood . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73 Tertiary education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77 Adult learning outside the workplace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .815. Returns to work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Inality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .94 Working women . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .96 Working in agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .996. Strengthening social protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 Social assistance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .107 Social insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .113 Labor regulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1157. Ideas for social inclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 A global “New Deal” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .125 Creating a new social contract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .127 Financing social inclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .130Foreword At a time when the global economy is growing and the poverty rate is the lowest in recorded history, it would be easy to become complacent and over- look looming challenges. One of the most critical is the future of work, the subject of the 2019 World Development Report. “Machines are coming to take our jobs” has been a concern for hundreds of yearsat least since the industrialization of weaving in the early 18th century, which raised productivity and also fears that thousands of workers would be thrown out on the streets. Innovation and technological progress have caused disruption, but they have created more prosperity than they have destroyed. Yet today, we are riding a new wave of uncertainty as the pace of innovation continues to accelerate and technology affects every part of our lives. We know that robots are taking over thousands of routine tasks and will eliminate many low-skill jobs in advanced economies and developing countries. At the same time, technology is creating opportunities, paving the way for new and altered jobs, increasing productivity, and improving the delivery of public services. When we consider the scope of the challenge to prepare for the future of work, it is important to understand that many children currently in primary school will work in jobs as adults that do not even exist today. That is why this Report emphasizes the primacy of human capital in meet- ing a challenge that, by its very defi nition, resists simple and prescriptive solutions. Many jobs today, and many more in the near future, will require specifi c skillsa combination of technological know-how, problem-solving, and critical thinking⎯ as well as soft skills such as perseverance, collabora- tion, and empathy. The days of staying in one job, or with one company, for decades are waning. In the gig economy, workers will likely have many gigs over the course of their careers, which means they will have to be lifelong learners. Innovation will continue to accelerate, but developing countries will need to take rapid action to ensure they can compete in the economy of the future. They will have to invest in their people with a fi erce sense of urgency⎯ especially in health and education, which are the building blocks of human capital⎯ to harness the benefi ts of technology and to blunt its worst disruptions. But right now too many countries are not making these critical investments. Our Human Capital Project aims to fi x that. This study unveils our new Human Capital Index, which measures the consequences of neglecting investments in human capital in terms of the lost productivity of the next generation of workers. In countries with the lowest human capital invest- ments today, our analysis suggests that the workforce of the future will only be one-third to one-half as productive as it could be if people enjoyed full health and received a high-quality education.viiviii | Foreword Adjusting to the changing nature of work also requires rethinking the social contract. We need new ways to invest in people and to protect them, regardless of their employment status. Yet four out of fi ve people in develop- ing countries have never known what it means to live with social protection. With 2 billion people already working in the inal sector⎯ unprotected by stable wage employment, social safety nets, or the benefi ts of education⎯ new working patterns are adding to a dilemma that predates the latest innovations. This Report challenges governments to take better care of their citizens and calls for a universal, guaranteed minimum level of social protection. It can be done with the right res, such as ending unhelpful subsidies; improving labor market regulations; and, globally, overhauling taxation pol- icies. Investing in human capital is not just a concern for ministers of health and education; it should also be a top priority for heads of state and min- isters of fi nance. The Human Capital Project will put the evidence squarely in front of those decision makers, and the index will make it hard to ignore. The 2019 World Development Report is unique in its transparency. For the fi rst time since the World Bank began publishing the WDR in 1978, we made an updated draft publicly available, online each week, throughout the writing process. For over seven months, it has benefi ted from thousands of comments and ideas from development practitioners, government offi cials, scholars, and readers from all over the world. I hope many of you will have already read the Report. Over 400,000 downloads later and counting, I am pleased to present it to you in its fi nal . Jim Yong Kim President The World Bank GroupOverviewT here has never been a time when mankind was not afraid of where its talent for innovation might lead. In the 19th century, Karl Marx worried that “machinery does not just act as a superior competitor to the worker, always on the point of making him superfl uous. It is the most powerful weapon for suppressing strikes.” 1John Maynard Keynes warned in 1930 of widespread unemployment arising from technology. 2 And yet innovation has transed living standards. Life expectancy has gone up; basic health care and education are widespread; and most people have seen their incomes rise. Three-quarters of the citizens of the European Union, the world’s lifestyle superpower, believe that the workplace benefi ts from technology, according to a recent Eurobarometer survey. Two-thirds said technology will benefi t society and improve their quality of life even further fi gure O.1. Despite this optimism, concerns about the future remain. People living in advanced economies are anxious about the sweeping impact of technology on employment. They hold a view that rising inequality, compounded by the advent of the gig economy in which organizations contract with inde- pendent workers for short-term engagements, is encouraging a race to the bottom in working conditions. This troubling scenario, however, is on balance unfounded. It is true that in some advanced economies and middle-income countries manufacturing jobs are being lost to automation. Workers undertaking routine tasks that are “codifi able” are the most vulnerable to replacement. And yet technology provides opportunities to create new jobs, increase productivity, and deliver effective public services. T hrough innovation, technology generates new sectors and new tasks. 2 FIGURE O.1 Survey respondents believe technology is improving the European economy, society, and quality of life Source WDR 2019 team, based on Special Eurobarometer 460, “Attitudes towards the Impact of Digitization and Automa- tion on Daily Life,” Question 1, European Commission, 2017. 17 15 23 50 49 52 14 20 10 4 5 3 15 11 12 20 04 0 of respondents 60 80 100 Quality of life Society Economy What impact do the most recent digital technologies currently have on Fairly negative impact Very positive impact Fairly positive impact Very negative impact It depends/Do not knowOverview | 3 Some features of the current wave of technological progress are notable. Digital technologies allow fi rms to scale up or down quickly, blurring the boundaries of fi rms and challenging traditional production patterns. New business modelsdigital plat fi rms are evolving from local start-ups to global behemoths, often with few employees or tangible assets fi gure O.2. This new industrial organization poses policy questions in the areas of privacy, competition, and taxation. The ability of governments to raise revenues is curtailed by the virtual nature of productive assets. The rise of plat marketplaces allows the effects of technology to reach more people
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