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Fiscal Policies for Development and Climate Action Pigato INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN FOCUS Fiscal Policies for Development and Climate Action Miria A. Pigato, EditorMiria A. Pigato, Editor Fiscal Policies for Development and Climate Action INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN FOCUS© 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW , Washington, DC 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000; Internet www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 22 21 20 19 Books in this series are published to communicate the results of Bank research, analysis, and operational experience with the least possible delay. The extent of language editing varies from book to book. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, inter- pretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of cutive Directors, or the governments they represent. 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Cover design Debra Naylor / Naylor Design Inc. iii Foreword vii Acknowledgments ix About the Editor and Contributors xi cutive Summary xv Abbreviations xxxiii CHAPTER 1 Benefits beyond Climate Environmental Tax Re 1 Dirk Heine and Simon Black Introduction 1 Why “climate action” 2 Why “beyond climate” 6 Why ETR 8 How large is the environmental tax gap 14 What is ETR’s effect on development and welfare 21 What is ETR’s effect on equity, poverty, and competitiveness 35 How suitable is ETR for developing countries 39 How can developing countries best implement ETR 40 Findings and policy recommendations 50 Notes 54 References 56 CHAPTER 2 Staying Competitive Productivity Effects of Environmental Taxes 65 Antoine Coste, Massimiliano Cali, Nicola Cantore, and Dirk Heine Introduction 65 How can environmental taxes affect competitiveness, and what does the evidence tell us 66 Estimating the impact of energy price increases on firms in developing countries 77 What policies can minimize adverse competitiveness impacts 88 Conclusion 101 Notes 104 References 107 CHAPTER 3 Increasing Resilience Fiscal Policy for Climate Adaptation 115 Lorenzo Forni, Michele Catalano, and Emilia Pezzolla Introduction 115 The macroeconomics of climate change 1 16 Contentsiv | F ISCAL POLICIES FOR DEv ELOPMENT AND CLIMATE ACTION Leveraging fiscal policy to support climate change adaptation 1 17 An analytical framework that incorporates climate change in medium-term fiscal planning 1 18 Adapting to the gradual effects of climate change 120 Adapting to extreme events 123 Policy implications 128 Conclusion 129 Notes 129 References 130 CHAPTER 4 Managing the Fiscal Risks Associated with Natural Disasters 133 Philip Schuler, Luiz Edgard Oliveira, Gianluca Mele, and Matias Ant onio Introduction 133 Fiscal risks from climate change 133 The fiscal sustainability model 138 Application to Jamaica 139 Application to the Dominican Republic 146 Conclusions and policy recommendations 150 Notes 151 References 152 Appendix A Benefits beyond Climate Environmental Tax Re 155 Appendix B Staying Competitive Productivity Effects of Environmental Taxes 187 Appendix C Increasing Resilience Fiscal Policy for Climate Adaptation 197 Boxes 1.1 Externalities and Pigouvian taxation 11 1.2 Analytical tools for appraising and uating ETR 23 1.3 Factors determining the distributional effects of ETR 36 1.4 Environmental taxation’s interactions with other environmental policies 45 1.5 Managing shifts to untaxed inal fuel substitutes 48 1.6 Antedating of benefits The 2010 Iranian strategy 49 2.1 Environmental health, resource efficiency, and productivity 72 3.1 Main characteristics of the model 1 19 A.1 VAT’s role as a withholding tax on the inal sector 160 A.2 FASTER principles for carbon pricing 171 A.3 The International Monetary Fund’s “rules of thumb” for energy price re 173 Figures ES.1 Environmental tax re can help raise welfare directly and indirectly xviii ES.2 Global environmental tax gaps on fossil fuels are large xix 1.1 Relation of temperature increases to emissions 3 1.2 Contributions to climate change 5 1.3 Overtaken Annual greenhouse gas emissions in middle-income countries exceed those of high-income countries, 1970–2012 5 1.4 Human development varies by income level SDGs 1–9 scores, 2017 7 1.5 Environmental tax revenues have declined as a proportion of GDP and total taxation in OECD countries, 1994–2014 9 1.6 Environmental tax re has direct and indirect effects on welfare 9 B1.1.1 Theoretical complete economic allocation 1 1Contents | v 1.7 Tax revenues among low- and middle-income countries lag advanced economies 13 1.8 Illustrative example of corrective tax on gasoline 15 1.9 Corrective taxes on gasoline by externality type, select countries, 2014 16 1.10 Global environmental tax gap 18 1.1 1 Explicit carbon prices around the world, 2018 20 1.12 ETR and development cobenefits An example 22 1.13 Simulations of developed countries suggest that ETR can cut emissions while increasing employment, but effects on output are ambiguous 26 1.14 Air quality cobenefits tend to be larger in developing countries 30 1.15 Road death rates are higher in developing countries, 2013 32 1.16 Road deaths are strongly associated with gasoline prices, 2010 33 1.17 Channels that impact estimated welfare effects of ETR Range of estimates from studies and possible effects for developing countries 34 1.18 Fuel taxes tend to be progressive in developing countries select countries 38 1.19 Stages of design for ETR 41 2.1 Channels of impact and mediating factors 67 2.2 Energy prices across countries, 2012 78 2.3 The nonlinear energy price–energy intensity relation across countries 87 2.4 Policy options to address competitiveness and leakage risks 89 3.1 The effects of early and late investment in climate change adaptation on capital depreciation, debt dynamics, and economic output 121 3.2 The effects of early and late investment in climate change adaptation on capital depreciation, debt dynamics, and economic output 122 3.3 The impact of extreme events on capital depreciation, debt dynamics, and economic output Baseline scenario 124 3.4 Adaptation to extreme events Deficit-financed early investment 125 3.5 Adaptation to extreme events Ex ante debt reduction and reserve fund 125 3.6 Adaptation to extreme events Donor grants 125 3.7 Adaptation to extreme events Early adaptation spending combined with ex ante debt reduction 126 3.8 Adaptation to extreme events Early adaptation spending combined with ex ante debt reduction and donor grants 126 4.1 Illustrative allocation of risks from natural disasters 137 4.2 Jamaica Baseline scenario 141 4.3 Jamaica Alternative scenario 1 142 4.4 Jamaica Alternative scenario 2 144 4.5 Jamaica Fiscal balances across scenarios 144 4.6 Jamaica Debt trajectory across scenarios 145 4.7 Dominican Republic Primary fiscal balance across scenarios 148 4.8 Dominican Republic Debt accumulation across scenarios 149 4.9 Dominican Republic Debt service across scenarios 149 A.1 Perfect labor markets’ assumption may affect double dividend estimates 158 A.2 Energy efficiency is a component of an economy’s energy productivity 167 A.3 Channels that impact estimated welfare effects of ETR Range of estimates from studies and possible effects for developing countries 168 A.4 Developing country experiences with raising energy prices vary 172 B.1 Average electricity prices’ deviation from national average across Java 192 B.2 Mexico Average electricity prices, 2009–16 193 B.3 Mexico Energy intensity of electricity and fuels in 2015 193 Maps ES.1 Less-developed countries xvi ES.2 are more vulnerable to climate change xvivi | F ISCAL POLICIES FOR DEv ELOPMENT AND CLIMATE ACTION 1.1 Warming world Projected temperature changes to 2100 3 1.2 Developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change 4 1.3 Unequal development SDG global index scores, 2017 6 1.4 Global environmental tax gaps, 2015 17 Tables 1.1 Findings of studies that incorporate multiple effects 35 1.2 Attributes of alternative environmental control instruments 40 1.3 Attributes of alternative uses of environmental tax revenues 42 2.1 Reviews of the literature on the economic impacts of environmental regulation and taxes 75 2.2 CGE studies of environmental taxes in developing countries 76 2.3 Energy prices and firms’ perance across countries fixed effect estimation 79 2.4 Energy prices and firms’ perance across countries IV estimation 80 2.5 Energy prices and firms’ perance across countries, upper-middle-income sample 81 2.6 Indonesia Energy prices and RTFP 82 2.7 Indonesia Energy prices and technological upgrading 83 2.8 Mexico Energy prices and perance across manufacturers 84 2.9 Mexico Energy prices and perance across manufacturers electricity vs. fuels 85 2.10 Summary of competitiveness policy options 89 3.1 Alternative mechanisms for financing investment in adaptation to gradual climate shocks Impact on economic output 123 3.2 Alternative mechanisms for financing investment in adaptation to gradual climate shocks Impact on debt dynamics 123 3.3 Alternative mechanisms for financing investment in adaptation to extreme events Impact on economic output 127 3.4 Alternative mechanisms for financing investment in adaptation to gradual climate factors Impact on debt dynamics 127 4.1 Fiscal risk factors and illustrative climate change channels 134 4.2 Fiscal costs of contingent liabilities 135 4.3 Approaches for managing climate change risks 136 B.1 Carbon pricing mechanisms, select countries 188 B.2 Country coverage with national-level energy prices 190 B.3 Energy prices and firms’ perance across countries IV estimation, country-sector energy prices 191 C.1 Parameters of the model 204 vii Foreword The world is in the early stages of a transition to a post-carbon economy. The impact of climate change is already upon us and is projected to worsen. For developing countries, climate damages threaten to derail steady progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals and will likely trigger significant losses to the gross domestic product. Policy decisions in developing countrieswhere aggregate emissions now exceed emissions in developed countriesare critical to tackling climate change. Recent developments are encouraging politicians, policymakers, and business leaders around the world increasingly recognize the urgency of the climate change threat and the benefits of proactive action. This book is a call to take charge. In the past, climate policy was the exclusive domain of sector and environment ministries. But as this report demonstrates, finance ministries can and must become the linchpin of effective climate action. Fiscal policy res are the most powerful lever to reduce climate emissions in a cost-efficient manner and serve as a foundation to deliver on important development goals. The most pressing fiscal res needed to achieve broader development goals are increasingly indistinguishable from res needed to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The book shows that there is a striking chasm between current levels of taxation on activities that have a significant negative impact on the environment environmental taxation and the level that would be optimal for enhancing both development and climate action. Environmental tax res designed to close energy price gaps would raise substantial revenues, and at lower cost than raising other taxes. While there is no single solution for using revenues from environmental taxes, there are many options. For instance, governments could use these revenues to reduce preexisting taxes that inhibit growth, increase spending on education and other public goods, or to help the economy to adapt to climate change. In developing countries with large inal sectors and dependence on distortionary taxes in al sectors, the benefits of environmental tax res are especially pronounced. For example, using environmental tax revenues to reduce al-sector taxes on labor and capital could enable a “double dividend” of lower emissions and higher employment
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