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Emissions TradingWorldwideInternational Carbon Action Partnership ICAPStatus Report 2018Emissions Trading Worldwide International Carbon Action Partnership ICAP Status Report 2018 Editorial TeamJohannes Ackva, Alexander Eden, William Acworth, Constanze Haug, Lina Li, Marissa Santikarn, Mariza Montes de Oca, Martina Kehrer, Julia Groß, Cecilia Kilimann.Cite as ICAP. 2018. Emissions Trading Worldwide Status Report 2018. Berlin ICAP. The ICAP Secretariat expresses its gratitude to policymakers from the ICAP membership and further collaborators from the emis-sions trading field, who provided insightful, written contributions and carefully reviewed the reportMarco Aurélio dos Santos Araujo Brazil, Mary Jane Coombs, David Clegern, Jason Gray, Mark Sippola, Jenny Wu California, Lynda Danquah Canada, Juan Pedro Searle, Nicolás Westenenk Chile, Qian Guoqiang, Huang Xiaochen, Chen Zhibin SinoCarbon, Huang Dayue Chongqing Low Carbon Consulting, Sebastián Carranza Colombia, Ismael Aznar-Cano, Johannes Enzmann, Stefanie Hiesinger, Hana Huzjak EU ETS, Helen Monzel, Lisa Katharina Schmid, Angelika Smuda, Dirk Weinreich Germany, Tomo Shoji Japan, Botagoz Akhmetova Kazakhstan, Victor Escalona Mexico, Charlotte Berg, Matthew Cowie, Sarah Deblock, Eva Murray, Craig Salmon New Zealand, Jason Hollett, Brittany White Nova Scotia, Sheri Beaton, Craig Golding Ontario, Colin McConnaha Oregon, Claude Audet-Robitaille, Jean-Yves Benoit, Stephané Legros Québec, Lois New, Megan O Toole, William Space, Brian Woods RGGI, Il-Young OH Republic of Korea, Sophie Wegner Switzerland, Pongvipa Lohsomboon, Sumon Sumetchoengprachya Thailand, Miho Shimizu Tokyo, Zeren Erik Yasar Turkey, Olga Yukhymchuk Ukraine, Huy Luong Quang Vietnam, Michael Dowd Virginia, Bill Drumheller Washington StateA special thanks to Felix Garten and Laura Linde for editorial assistance.The ICAP Secretariat is grateful to the German Federal Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety BMUB for funding this report. adelphi consult GmbH lends scientific and technical support to the ICAP Secretariat and coordinated the compilation and production of the report.2ForewordMessages from the ICAP Co-Chairs In the first year since the entry into force of the Paris Agreement, emissions trading worldwide has once again taken a significant step forward. Developments in 2017 bring the global ETS count to 21 systems in operation in early 2018, at different levels of govern-ment. With the launch of the Chinese national ETS, the share of global emissions covered by a domestic ETS has reached almost 15. Now, economies with an ETS in place produce more than 50 of global GDP and are home to almost a third of the global population. These figures reflect the steady expansion of ETS pol-icy and the strengthening of implementation around the world.The culmination of several years of hard work, 2017 has seen the emergence of three new ETSs as well major reviews, res and new legislation in four of the world’s pioneering systems the Western Climate Initiative WCI jurisdictions of California, Québec and Ontario; the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative RGGI; the European Union ETS EU ETS; and the New Zealand ETS NZ ETS. The res are coming at a crucial time, as policy-makers are taking the lessons onboard from the past years of ETS operation, while sharpening their systems in preparation for the declared climate targets of the next decade and beyond. In this regard, the effect of the Paris Agreement has been to crystalize the international response into national and sub-national com-mitment to climate action, providing momentum to domestic policy at all levels of government. In this ICAP Status Report, we will look into the technical details of the recently completed res, as well as to the launch of the Chinese national ETS and other promising developments. Starting with WCI, in 2017, both California and Québec have successfully extended their ETS regulations and cap trajectories until 2030, strengthening confidence in an increasingly stringent long-term carbon price signal in the linked WCI carbon market. Especially critical was this accomplishment in California, the largest WCI partner, where the extension resulted from a hard-won political battle in the Californian legislature, with strong political leadership by Governor Brown on the issue. The new law in California endorses one of the steepest cap trajectories worldwide 4 per year in 2021–2030, to meet California’s cli-mate goal of 40 below 1990 levels by 2030. Importantly, the law was passed with a two-thirds majority in the legislature, insulating the program from future legal challenges. In a further welcome development, Québec and California concluded and signed a new linking agreement with the Canadian province of Ontario, which officially joined the WCI carbon market on 1 January 2018.On the eastern seaboard of the United States of America, the nine RGGI participating states this year settled on the param-eters to guide their ETS through the 2020s. The states equally endorsed a cap trajectory until 2030, corresponding to a 30 cap reduction compared to 2020 levels. With five Republican and four Democratic governors currently leading the states, the RGGI re process demonstrated that ambitious bipartisan cli-mate policy is possible in today’s United States of America. They also continue to innovate ETS design with a new tool to balance supply and demand in the RGGI carbon marketthe Emissions Containment Reservewhich reduces the cap when the allow-ance price falls below a trigger level, indicating that mitigation in the system is cheaper than expected.The pioneering EU ETS has also reached an important milestone in 2017. After more than two years of negotiations, the re process to prepare the EU ETS for the period up to 2030 was completed. Perhaps even more than anticipated, the re helps reduce the current surplus in the EU allowance market by increasing the stringency of the Market Stability Reserve. This also includes a provision to permanently remove excess allow-ances from 2023 onward and thus raises the prospect of carbon prices that “bite” in the second half of the 2020s. Importantly, the re also allows member states to unilaterally cancel allowances to compensate for overachieving domestic policies and actions. The question of whether there is a need for further measures to bolster the carbon price, such as a price floor, is set to remain a hot topic for discussion over the next few years, with proponents considering action at the national level or through a “coalition of the willing”. From Local to Supranational28 jurisdictions are implementing 21 ETS across scales5 countries1 supranationalinstitution5 cities 17 provincesfurther, CARB has directed staff to uate and propose applying a 100 percent assistance factor for the 2018–2020 period. “Moving forward, California will continue to advocate for broader climate action and to pursue partnerships with other jurisdictions to expand opportunities for GHG reductions.”Upcoming climate efforts in CaliforniaIn recognition of this, in the coming year, California will under-score the urgency of coordinated climate action by hosting both the Governors’ Climate and Forests Task Force annual meeting on 10–11 September and the Global Climate Action Summit on 12–14 September. Together, these meetings will further demon-strate the role of subnational climate leadership in advocating for inclusive, green economies, convening people from all walks of life to showcase the surge of climate action around the world, and strengthening the push for greater emissions reduction targets.10The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative The RGGI Review and the Path AheadLois New, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation William Space, Massachusetts Department of Environmental ProtectionThe successful Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative RGGI contin-ues to evolve and improve. 2018 will mark the 10thyear of the pro-gram, and the 38 successful auctions held through to the end of 2017 have yielded more than USD 2.8 billion in proceeds for par-ticipating states, much of which is invested in energy efficiency programs that yield large macroeconomic benefits. Recently announced changes will result in a 2030 emissions cap that is 65 below the initial 2009 cap, and the implementation of an “Emissions Containment Reserve.” Furthermore, the addition of one or more states to the RGGI market is a real possibility. RGGI recently completed its second program review. The review process extended over two years, and included nine public re- gional stakeholder meetings and webinars. The states initiated the public component of the program review in late 2015 by sharing a list of key topics, and went on to consider thousands of public comments and more than 25 distinct modeling runs. In August 2017, the states announced their proposed changes, including A regional cap of 75.148 million short tons of CO₂in 2021, which will decline by 2.275 million short tons of CO₂per year thereafter, resulting in a total 30 reduction in the regional cap from 2020 to 2030. Additional adjustments to the RGGI cap, to account for the full bank of excess allowances at the end of 2020. The amount of this adjustment will be calculated in 2021 accord- ing to a ula established in the revised Model Rule, and it will be implemented over the period 2021 to 2025. Modifications to the Cost Containment Reserve CCR size and trigger price. The proposed CCR size from 2021 on- wards will be 10 of the regional cap. The CCR trigger price will be USD 13 in 2021, and will rise by 7 per year, ensur- ing that the CCR will only be triggered if emission reduction costs are higher than projected. Implementation of an Emissions Containment Reserve ECR in 2021, wherein states will withhold allowances from circulation to secure additional emission reductions if prices fall below established trigger prices. The ECR trigger price will be USD 6 in 2021, and rise at 7 per year, so that the ECR will only be triggered if emission reduction costs are lower than projected. At this time, Maine and New Hampshire do not intend to implement an ECR.“The states implementing the ECR will withhold up to 10 of the allowances in their base budgets per year. Allowances withheld in this way will not be reoffered for sale.” Stakeholder feedback on the ECR was overwhelmingly posi-tive, and an August 2017 analysis of the ECR concept completed by Resources for the Future RFF identified a number of ways in which an ECR could reduce risk and improve the functioning of the RGGI market.1RFF titled their analysis “Expanding the Toolkit,” suggesting that the ECR is a RGGI program element that may be of interest to other jurisdictions, just as the RGGI auctions have been.“The most important part of the program review is the selection of a proposed 30 reduction in the regional cap bet- ween 2020 and 2030. However, the inclusion of the ECR, which is designed to secure additional reductions when costs are low, generated nearly as much interest among stakeholders.” 1 http//www.rff.org/research/publications/expanding-toolkit-potential-role-emissions- containment-reserve-rggi“While the proposed abandonment of the federal Clean Power Plan is a sig- nificant setback for the United States as a whole, the RGGI states continue to demonstrate that the RGGI cap, together with the reinvestment of auction proceeds in cleaner and more efficient energy, is not only reducing emissions, but also improving public health, reduc-ing electricity bills, and creating jobs.”11international carbon action partnershipAs noted above, the program changes have been proposed by states, but have not yet been finalized. For the changes to take effect, each state must complete a rulemaking process pursuant to its own statutory requirements. The processes are critical because the RGGI allowance market depends on the existence of consistent rules in all participating states; there is no centralized rulemaking authority. Individual state rulemaking processes are expected to take place in 2018.Another development is the potential for new states to link with the RGGI market. Virginia and New Jersey, both of which are US states that are located contiguous to the RGGI region, are current possibilities. The process has progressed furthest in Virginia, with the completion by Virginia of draft regulatory language and mod-eling runs that address a potential combined allowance market, as well as the release of a statement by the RGGI states applauding Virginia’s progress and noting similarities between Virginia’s regu-lation and the RGGI model rule. Serious work with New Jersey is expected in 2018, after the inauguration of a newly elected and supportive governor. Notably, governors in both states were elected after having indicated support for RGGI. Of course, “linking” would bring challenges, but fortunately there are resources, such as the forthcoming ‘ICAP Guide to Linking’, to help guide the pro-cess as the RGGI states move from theory to practice.Looking further ahead, 2019 could be a relatively quiet year, but the next program review is scheduled for 2021, so planning for that will need to begin in 2020. Stay tuned to the RGGI website and ICAP’s updates to follow the implementation of the ECR, the ongo-ing assessment of Virginia’s program development, and all of the latest RGGI news.12The EU ETSA Resilient System to Support Long-Term Decarbonization Dirk Weinreich, Helen Monzel, Lisa Katharina Schmid and Angelika SmudaGerman Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety BMUBSince its establishment in 2005, the European Emissions Trading System EU-ETS has always been a learning system. The agree-ment on far-reaching re measures finalized in late 2017 marks the successful conclusion of lengthy negotiations. It incorporates lessons learned from earlier trading periods and brings the system in line with the EU’s 2030 climate targets. With the recently agreed re package,1negotiators have struck a balance between strengthening the price signal, protecting industry from carbon leakage, and securing solidarity mechanisms for poorer member states. Most changes will be implemented in the fourth trading period that will last from 2021 until 2030. “The re stipulates a number of meas-ures that strengthen the EU-ETS and enable it to resume its place as the main driver of European decarbonization.” Since the global financial and economic crisis began unfolding in 2008, a structural surplus has been accumulating within the EU-ETS amounting to an aggregated figure of 2.2 billion allowances at its peak in 2013. A comprehensive re to tackle this problem and also to make the system more resilient to potential future crises was adopted in 2015
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