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Evolving Risk Perceptions for India’s Grid-Connected Renewable Power Projects Report July 2019 Edition authors Arjun Dutt, Lucila Arboleya, and Barath Mahadevan Series editors Kanika Chawla and Michael Waldron Clean Energy Investment Trends 2019 Evolving Risk Perceptions for India’s Grid-Connected Renewable Power Projects Centre for Energy FinanceClean Energy Investment Trends 2019 Image EnvatoEvolving Risk Perceptions for India’s Grid-Connected Renewable Power Projects Edition authors Arjun Dutt, Lucila Arboleya, and Barath Mahadevan Series editors Kanika Chawla and Michael Waldron Report July 2019 ceew.in Clean Energy Investment Trends 2019 Centre for Energy Finance Evolving Risk Perceptions for India’s Grid-Connected Renewable Power ProjectsClean Energy Investment Trends 2019Copyright © 2019 Council on Energy, Environment and Water CEEW and International Energy Agency IEA. Open access. Some rights reserved. 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Disclaimer This report is the result of a collaborative effort between the International Energy Agency IEA and the Council on Energy, Environment and Water CEEW and was produced by CEEW.This report reflects the views of the IEA Secretariat and the authors affiliated to the CEEW but does not necessarily reflect those of the IEA’s respective individual Member countries or of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, or their funders. The report does not constitute professional advice on any specific issue or situation. CEEW and the IEA make no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect of the report’s contents including its completeness or accuracy and shall not be responsible for any use of, or reliance on, the report. For further ination, please contact kanika.chawlaceew.in and michael. waldroniea.org. Suggested citation Dutt, Arjun, Lucila Arboleya, and Barath Mahadevan. 2019. Clean Energy Investment Trends Evolving Risk Perceptions for India’s Grid-Connected Renewable Energy Projects. New Delhi; Paris Council on Energy, Environment and Water; International Energy Agency. Cover image iStock Peer reviewers Findings of this report have been peer reviewed as part of an IEA publication process as well as through consultations with market participants. Publication team Alina Sen CEEW, Mihir Shah CEEW, Surit Das, Twig Designs, and Friends Digital. The Council on Energy, Environment and Water http/ /ceew.in/ is one of South Asia’s leading not-for- profit policy research institutions. The Council uses data, integrated analysis, and strategic outreach to explain-and change-the use, reuse, and misuse of resources. It prides itself on the independence of its high-quality research, develops partnerships with public and private institutions, and engages with the wider public. 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The IEA family of countries accounts for 75 of global energy consumption, and includes 30 Member countries and 8 Association countries -- Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Morocco, Singapore, South Africa, and Thailand.Council on Energy, Environment and Water, Sanskrit Bhawan, A-10, Qutab Institutional Area Aruna Asaf Ali Marg, New Delhi - 110067, IndiaInternational Energy Agency, 9 rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15 FranceEvolving Risk Perceptions for India’s Grid-Connected Renewable Power ProjectsAbout the authors Series editors Kanika Chawla and Michael Waldron Edition authors Arjun Dutt, Lucila Arboleya, and Barath Mahadevan KANIKA CHAWLA I kanika.chawlaceew.in MICHAEL WALDRON I Michael.WALDRONiea.org ARJUN DUTT I arjun.duttceew.in LUCILA ARBOLEYA I Lucila.ARBOLEYASARAZOLAiea.org BARATH MAHADEVAN I Kanika Chawla is a policy specialist working at the intersection of renewable energy and financial markets. She is the Director of the CEEW Centre for Energy Finance and also manages CEEW’s research and outreach in renewable energy policy, regulation, markets, and socio-economic value. Michael Waldron is a Senior Energy Investment Analyst and the project leader of the World Energy Investment report at the International Energy Agency. His work focuses on investment in the electricity sector, trends in energy financing and implications of energy investment for meeting energy security and sustainability goals. Arjun Dutt is a Programme Associate at CEEW. His work spans renewable energy finance, policy and markets, and is geared towards analysing risks constraining renewable energy investments and enhancing the flow of finance to the renewable energy sector. Lucila Arboleya is an Energy Economics and Financial Analyst at the International Energy Agency, focusing on clean power investments and policies. Previously, she has also worked on electricity transmission projects. Barath Mahadevan is a consultant to the CEEW-IEA Clean Energy Investment Trends project. His interest lies at the intersection of technology and policy in the energy and environment sector. He has previously worked on low carbon technology pathways, energy systems modelling, GHG inventory and climate change negotiations. Clean Energy Investment Trends 2019 Image iStockEvolving Risk Perceptions for India’s Grid-Connected Renewable Power Projects CEEW and IEA Clean Energy Investment Trends To achieve its clean energy ambitions, India’s policymakers, industry actors, and financiers must act in concert. For investments in clean energy to scale, policy measures must address the investment risks perceived by financiers and developers. The Clean Energy Investment Trends is a joint project of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water CEEW Centre for Energy Finance and the International Energy Agency IEA. By monitoring market activity and identifying market trends, the project seeks to provide a practical guide to stakeholders for understanding how the interaction between risks and regulations is shaping investment flows. The insights generated from the analyses of financing and market trends could be used to in future policy action geared towards enhancing investment flows. Themes examined in the Clean Energy Investment Trends 2019 report The 2019 Clean Energy Investment Trends report maps out the evolution in the renewable power industry and investment landscape through tracking the risk perceptions of debt financiers towards solar photovoltaic PV and wind projects over the period from 2014 to 2018 and recent developments impacting the pace of capacity addition. Risk perceptions are analysed through an uation of key metrics pertaining to debt financing and capital structure. To assess the relative standing of renewables and thermal assets, this report includes an analysis of thermal projects along the same metrics. The report also takes stock of the impact of a recent policy measure – the imposition of safeguard duties on solar PV cell and module imports – on the pace of project awards. Further, this report contextualises emerging challenges facing the solar park model, which has been a key driver of solar capacity deployment in India’s energy transition. Key findings Investment in India’s renewable power sector has doubled over the past five years. At nearly USD 20 billion in 2018, it has surpassed capital expenditure in the thermal power sector. 1Ambitious targets, supportive policies, and falling technology costs have improved the attractiveness of financing utility-scale solar PV and wind projects,spurring a dramatic expansion in deployment, though with some differences in the risk profiles and industry landscape between the sectors. The cost of equity and debt financing comprises around 60 of the levelised cost of electricity LCOE of solar PV and wind projects. 2Thus, the cost and availability of financing, which depend on the investment risks as perceived by developers and financiers, significantly shape India’s progress along the energy transition. Sectoral credit exposure limits in the banking sector in India force renewable energy and thermal projects to compete for the same pool of debt capital as both are categorised as power sector. Thus, improvements in risk perceptions of renewables projects are necessary to scale up their share in debt finance flows from banks. This is even more important considering the near-term liquidity constraints on India’s non-banking financial companies NBFCs, in the wake of a bond default by a systemically important NBFC, hampering the flow of debt capital from these sources. An analysis of utility-scale solar PV and wind projects sanctioned between 2014 and 2018 points to higher market concentration, better financing terms and lower investment risks over time. However, financing constraints and uncertainties over key policy and infrastructure enablers remain present. The analysis reveals five key trends The market concentration of developers sanctioning new solar PV and wind capacity remained high in 2018above 80 for the top ten firms in both markets. Top companies that can access financing at favourable terms have an advantage in structuring competitive auction bids. 1 Includes investments in large hydro, Source IEA 2019, World Energy Investment 2019, IEA, Paris, https//www.iea.org/wei2019/ 2 Upcoming research paper, Kanika Chawla, Manu Aggarwal, Arjun Dutt, ‘Analysing the falling solar PV and wind tariffs Evidence from India’ 1Clean Energy Investment Trends 2019Both solar PV and wind markets are characterised by high concentration in terms of the sanctioning of new projects. With declines in tariffs and pressure on margins, companies with access to favourable sources of finance succeed in winning project capacity at competitive auctions. At the same time, there has been a notable turnover of top players from year to year, as even the best developers face limitations in continually financing projects. Nevertheless, there were signs of increased consolidation in the wind sector in 2018, with the churn rate dropping considerably from the previous year. A maturing market along with reduced risk perceptions and enhanced bankability for renewables has contributed to improved availability and pricing of project debt finance over time, facilitating lower cost investment.The capital structure of wind projects remained stable–debt-to-equity ratios averaged 7525 – but the share of debt rose for solar PV , with more 7525 structures and instances of higher ratios 8020. Interest rate spreads over bank benchmark lending rates also fell between 75 to 125 basis points for both wind and solar PV between 2014 and 2018. Loan tenures increased during the period between 2014 and 2018 as lenders became more comfortable in extending longer-term loans. Data comparisons with thermal power projects were more challenging, but assets developed by integrated state governmentowned utilities appear to benefit from some financing advantages. 3For thermal projects developed by integrated state government–owned utilities, degrees of project debt leverage are higher than those for solar PV and wind investments, and loan tenures are longer than those available to other categories of thermal developers. National Thermal Power Corporation NTPC, a central government–owned public sector undertaking PSU and India’s largest thermal developer, relies on the bond market to fund the bulk of its capital expenditure. Therefore, this analysis excludes most of its projects. The weak availability of long-term, fixed- rate debt remains a constraint for all power generation investments, raising uncertainty over future financing costs for new plants and the refinancing of existing ones.Long-tenure bank/NBFC- financed debt for renewable energy projects commonly includes provisions for the reset of spreads and refinancing after a certain period. Loans extended to thermal projects developed by private developers and PSUs also include such provisions. Though debt extended to thermal projects developed by integrated state government-owned utilities is structured at a single, fixed rate, it also includes provisions for reset of interest rates. The imposition of safeguard duties and persistent land acquisition and grid infrastructure related challenges under India’s Solar Park scheme, represent near–term risks to the pace of capacity addition.The Government of India imposed safeguard duties on solar PV cell and module imports in July 2018. This, along with the associated market uncertainty, has translated into an increase in tariffs discovered at some solar PV auctions from the record lows realised in 2017. This increase in tariffs was a major cause of the cance
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