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The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of SciencesAnalyticaI Center for the Govemment of the Russian FederationGLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK UP TO 2040THE OUTLOOK WAS PREPARED BYThe Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences ERI RAS and the Analytical Centre of the Government of the Russian Federation ACRFScientific Advisor A. A. Makarov, academician, director of ERI RASProject Manager T. A. Mitrova, PhD, Head of Oil and Gas Department, ERI RASL. M. Grigoryev, PhD, Professor and Senior Advisor to the Head of ACS. P. Filippov, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Deputy Director of ERI RASCORPORATE AUTHORSN. Arckhipov, Researcher, ERI RASO. Eliseeva, PhD, Head of ERI RAS Laboratory A. Galkina, Researcher, ERI RASE. Gavrilova, Researcher, ERI RASE. Geller, Researcher, ERI RASS. Goryacheva, Researcher, ERI RASE. Grushevenko, Researcher, ERI RASD. Grushevenko, Researcher, ERI RASA. Horshev, PhD, Head of the Laboratory, ERI RASA. Ivashchenko, Independent Expert on MacroeconomicsE. Kozina, Researcher, ERI RASV. Kulagin, Head of the Centre for Global Energy Markets, ERI RAS A. Kurdin, Head of the Directorate of the AC A. Makarova, PhD, Head of the Laboratory, ERI RASV. Malakhov, PhD, Head of the Department of Energy Consumption, ERI RASS. Melnikova, Researcher, ERI RASI. Mironova, Researcher, ERI RASS. Sorokin, Researcher, ERI RASV. Strukova, Researcher, ERI RASA. Tarasov, PhD, Senior Research Scientist, ERI RASL. Urvantsev, Senior Research Scientist, ERI RASKey findings .3Introduction .51. Baseline Scenario – Energy Consumption 9Long-term trends of the world energy .9Demography 11Economic Growth 14Primary Energy Consumption .18Development of Electricity Generation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21International Trade 23СО2 Emissions 242. Baseline Scenario – Energy Markets . 26Liquid Fuel Market . 26Gas Market 41Solid Fuel Market .51Nuclear Energy 56Renewable Energy .583. The Impact of Technological Breakthroughs on the Energy Markets . . 63The Role of Technologies in the Development of the Energy Sector . . 63«Shale Breakthrough» . 65«Shale Failure» 71Gas Use in Transportation .76Liquid Biofuels 78Electric vehicles .79Gas Hydrates 84Biogas 854. The Impact of Global Energy Markets on Russia’s Economy and Energy Sector .88The Initial Scenario for the Development of the Russian Economy and Energy Sector 88Russian resources in the world energy markets external constraints .89The Forecast Scenario of Russia’s Economy and Energy Sector Development . 92Appendixes 96Appendix 1. ology 96Appendix 2. Regional Balances .98Appendix 3. Comparison with Other Forecasts .104Bibliography 105OUTLINEGLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK UP TO 2040 ERI RAS – ACRF2Key FindingsGLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK UP TO 2040 ERI RAS – ACRF3KEY FINDINGS The protracted nature of the current global financial crisis has led to reduced forecasts of economic and energy consumption growth accompanied by an obvious accelerated increase in the share taken by developing countries. In the long term, fossil fuels will remain dominant, against the background of a slower growth in the share of non-hydrocarbon energy resources than was estimated in the previous Outlook. The ‘shale breakthrough’ has postponed for two or three decades the threat of running out of economically viable oil and gas reserves – which had seemed so close just five to seven years ago – and has secured the predominantly hydrocarbon character of the world’s energy sector. The share of oil and gas in world primary energy consumption will remain practically unchanged 53.6 per cent in 2010 and 51.4 per cent by 2040. The study of oil and gas price dynamics in different scenarios did not show fundamental cause for alarmist forecasts predicting either too high, or extremely low, prices within the period under review. In all cases – ranging from future success to possible failure of shale technologies – oil prices in 2040 will not move out of the range 100–130/bbl. Gas prices will be closely correlated with oil prices, but also strongly differentiated by region which does not exclude large short-term fluctuations in prices under the influence of political and speculative factors. Despite the integration of oil and gas markets, as international trade in oil and liquefied natural gas LNG expands, the trend towards regionalization of prices, resulting in considerable differences in price levels, will gain momentum. Natural gas will account for the most substantial increase in absolute volumes of consumption, and the share taken by gas in primary energy consumption will increase more than that of any other fuel. The next 30 years could, quite reasonably, be considered as ‘the era of gas’. But Russia runs the risk of missing the resulting opportunities. The consequences of the expected transation of world energy and, especially, hydrocarbon markets will not significantly change the fuel markets themselves, but the positions of the leading market participants will clearly be rebalanced, while some global players will be able to gain influence. The results of our research clearly show that Russia will be more susceptible to adverse changes in market conditions during the forecast period. In the Baseline Scenario, Russian oil and gas exports to foreign markets appear to be significantly lower than the official national projections. High costs and the current taxation system both limit the competitiveness of Russian energy resources in global markets. The Russian fuel and energy complex could face severe restrictions on external demand for energy resources at prices acceptable to Russia, resulting in additional risks for Russia’s energy sector and economy. This research provides preliminary estimates of the consequences of this impact on the country’s economic growth one percentage point slowdown per year and possible measures to compensate for it. GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK UP TO 2040 ERI RAS – ACRF4IntroductionGLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK UP TO 2040 ERI RAS – ACRF5Russia is a leading force in world energy and a major participant in international energy markets. The country’s energy sector, together with exports of its products, is uniquely important; its dynamics directly impact the stability of the national economy. Thus, a satisfactory vision pertaining to the long-term development of this sector is of great importance in predicting and planning the country’s economic development. The study of the world’s energy future is one of the most important external parameters that help to shape the country’s strategy for the development of its economy and energy sector. The world’s energy situation has undergone significant transations since the 2008 global financial crisis prices for hydrocarbons have shown strong volatility; there has been a noticeable slowdown in demand and increased competition in traditional energy markets; most importantly, new technologies have already started to push international energy markets in a direction unfavourable for Russia. Therefore, now more than ever, we need to make a fundamental study of possible turbulence in world energy markets and develop regular world energy outlooks, based on our own research potential.It was this view that gave impetus to the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences ERI RAS and the Analytical Centre of the RF Government ACRF to prepare ‘Global and Russia Energy Outlook up to 2040’. Publication of the 2012 Energy Outlook showed how much demand there was for Russia to produce its own review of the future of world energy. Last year, this ination was widely used in the reports of federal government officials and the top management of major Russian companies, and it was also discussed at scientific and other expert events in Russia and abroad.The new Outlook has an extended time horizon, and a significantly upgraded modelling and ological approach. It mainly focuses on the study of the fuel market situation liquid, gas, and solid fuels not just on forecasting the production and consumption of different energy resources, which is more appropriate given increasing interfuel competition. The main purpose of Outlook-2013 is the uation of actual trends in global hydrocarbon markets, and of the changes resulting from anticipated technological breakthroughs, giving the resulting implications for Russia’s economy and energy sector. In this regard, the following are included 1 A Baseline Scenario which shows the evolution of world energy and fuel markets based primarily on existing developed energy technologies;2 Versions of the Baseline Scenario, whose differences relate to the success of required technological breakthroughs in the production and consumption of hydrocarbons and their substitutes;3 Forecasts for the development of Russia’s energy sector under certain hypothetical transations of world fuel markets, and the assessment of their impact on the national economy. The Baseline Scenario for the evolution of fuel markets was developed using the world energy model incorporated in the SCANER modelling and ination complex [1], with substantially upgraded models of oil [2, 3] and gas [4] markets. New features of interfuel competition in the INTRODUCTIONGLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK UP TO 2040 ERI RAS – ACRF6transportation and power sectors are described with reference to 86 points of liquid fuel consumption 76 countries and 192 points of gas consumption 147 countries. Production and processing of conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon resources from 778 oil fields and 504 gas fields were modelled. The balance of production and consumption and balancing fuel prices were calculated for all the regional fuel markets; their sensitivity to changes in the most important resource and technological factors was analysed; and the roles of key market players, in particular Russia, were estimated.For the assessment of potential technological breakthroughs, the model includes variants of changes in volumes of production, consumption, and substitution for all types of energy resources relating to the implementation of new technologies for production of unconventional oil and gas; production of synthetic liquid fuels and biofuels; and the use of efficient electrical power storage in transportation with estimates for the technical and economic characteristics required for implementation of these new technologies. In accordance with the results of these calculations, we have set out the potential changes in fuel market dynamics. Projections of Russia’s energy development were made using the modelling system [1] for the baseline and extreme scenarios of the development of world hydrocarbon markets, taking into account their influence on domestic demand, production and export of energy resources, and their consequences for the economy.The scenarios are exploratory in nature they show the variety and, most importantly, possible consequences of the development options – the so-called ‘forks in the road’ – which face the energy industry in both Russia and the world. For several important parameters Outlook-2013 gives new estimates, which are substantially different from our Outlook-2012 and from the results obtained by a number of international organizations. These differences are noted and explained in the text; the most important of them are mentioned below The protracted character of the current global financial crisis has led to reduced forecasts for economic growth and energy consumption, in such a way that last year’s prognosis for the period to 2035 has declined slightly towards 2040, in combination with a simultaneous accelerated economic growth for developing countries. Fossil fuels will remain dominant in world energy, with the share of non-carbon energy resources rising more slowly. The production volumes of oil, natural gas, and coal will continue to grow at different rates. The ‘shale revolution’ has postponed the threat of exhaustion of economically viable oil and gas resources, which seemed so close just 5–7 years ago. It has also widely diversified these resources by world region, stimulating the regionalization of world oil markets against the background of the integration of gas markets due to the explosive growth of LNG trade. Under these conditions, some global players will have additional possibilities to influence hydrocarbon markets. Analysis of the ‘hot issue’ of oil and gas price dynamics has not brought to light any justification for alarmist predictions for the period reviewed; GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK UP TO 2040 ERI RAS – ACRF7there will be no excessively high, or excessively low, deviations in their dynamics. In all scenarios, ranging from the future success to the possible failure of shale technologies, balancing oil prices1do not exceed US100–130/bbl 2010 prices and a good correlation with gas prices, highly differentiated by region. However, up to 2025–30, there could be wider fluctuations of oil price trends. Seen objectively, favourable transations in world energy, especially hydrocarbon, markets bring extra risks for Russia’s economy and energy sector. Preliminary results assessing their impact on economic growth show a slowdown of one percentage point each year, due to decreased energy exports and possible measures for its compensation. It has been determined that during the forecast period Russia will be more sensitive to negative market fluctuations – reduced demand, increased supply and, especially, price decline. Therefore, the Baseline Scenario assumes oil and gas export volumes being at significantly lower levels than those determined in national projections. High costs and the current tax system hamper the competitiveness of Russian energy resources in external markets – the first time the Russian energy sector has had to work under such difficult conditions.Our primary objective is to promote discussion on the future shape of world energy development and options for the adaptation of Russia’s economy and energy sector to the changing environment. Ali Makarov, academicianLeonid Grigoryev, professorTatiana Mitrova, PhD1 The balance price of oil is a price at which oil production in conventional and unconventional fields and the commercially viable options of oil substitution will satisfy demand in the particular year of the forecast period factually reflecting the point of intersection of supply and demand.GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK UP TO 2040 ERI RAS – ACRF8Baseline Scenario – Energy ConsumptionGLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK UP TO 2040 ERI RAS – ACRF91. BASELINE SCENARIO –ENERGY CONSUMPTIONLong-term trends of the world energyOver the past 150 years, world energy consumption has grown 35 times and passed through three stages of development. The length of these stages has consistently fallen fro
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