2017年全球再生能源现状报告.pdf

RENEWABLES 2017 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT2017REPORT CITATION REN21. 2017. Renewables 2017 Global Status ReportParis REN21 Secretariat. ISBN 978-3-9818107-6-9 DISCLAIMER REN21 releases issue papers and reports to emphasise the importance of renewable energy and to generate discussion on issues central to the promotion of renewable energy. While REN21 papers and reports have benefited from the considerations and from the REN21 community, they do not necessarily represent a consensus among network participants on any given point. Although the ination given in this report is the best available to the authors at the time, REN21 and its participants cannot be held liable for its accuracy and correctness.This report was commissioned by REN21 and produced in collaboration with a global network of research partners. Financing was provided by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development BMZ, the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy BMWi, UN Environment and the Inter-American Development Bank IDB. A large share of the research for this report was conducted on a voluntary basis. RENEWABLES 2017 · GLOBAL STATUS REPORT01 GLOBAL OVERVIEW28Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Heating and Cooling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3902 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS44 Biomass Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45Geothermal Power and Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52Hydropower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57Ocean Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61Solar Photovoltaics PV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63Concentrating Solar Thermal Power CSP . . . . . . . . . 72Solar Thermal Heating and Cooling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75Wind Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8203 DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR ENERGY ACCESS 96Status of Energy Access An Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98Distributed Renewable Energy Technologiesand Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99Investment and Financing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104Business Models for Distributed Renewable Energy . . 107Barriers and Policy Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108Programme Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109The Future of Distributed Renewable Energy . . . . . . . 10904 INVESTMENT FLOWS 110Investment by Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112Investment by Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114Investment by Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115Renewable Energy Investment in Perspective . . . . . . 116Sources of Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117Early Investment Trends in 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11705 POLICY LANDSCAPE118 Targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122Renewable Heating and Cooling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127City and Local Governments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12806 ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES AND ENERGY SYSTEMS INTEGRATION 134Energy Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137Heat Pumps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142Electric Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14407 ENERGY EFFICIENCY 148Global Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148Electricity Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150Buildings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153Finance and Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154Policies and Programmes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15508 FEATURE DECONSTRUCTING BASELOAD 158Power Systems Traditional Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160What Is Changing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161System-wide Flexibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161A New Planning Paradigm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164The Ongoing Transition Away from Baseload . . . . . . . 164TABLE OF CONTENTS |GSR 2017 Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11cutive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Renewable Energy Indicators 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21Top Five Countries Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Reference Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165ological Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214List of Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220Energy Units and Conversion Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221Endnotes see full version online at STATUS REPORT 2017TABLE OF CONTENTS |GSR 2017 TABLES SIDEBARSREFERENCE TABLESTable 1 Estimated Direct and Indirect Jobs in Renewable Energy, by Country and Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43Table 2 Status of Renewable Energy Technologies Costs and Capacity Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .92-95Table 3 Renewable Energy Support Policies . . . . . . .130-133Table 4 Overview of Approximate Impacts and Responses to Rising Shares of Variable Renewable Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .163Sidebar 1 Jobs in Renewable Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42Sidebar 2 Renewable Power Technology Cost Trends . . . . . .91Sidebar 3 Energy Access and the Energy Efficiency Nexus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102Table R1 Global Renewable Energy Capacity and Biofuel Production, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165Table R2 Renewable Electric Power Global Capacity, Top Regions/Countries, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .166Table R3 Biofuels Global Production, Top 16 Countries and EU-28, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .167Table R4 Geothermal Power Global Capacity and Additions, Top 6 Countries, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .168Table R5 Hydropower Global Capacity and Additions, Top 6 Countries, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169Table R6 Solar PV Global Capacity and Additions, Top 10 Countries, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .170Table R7 Concentrating Solar Thermal Power CSP Global Capacity and Additions, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . .171Table R8 Solar Water Heating Collectors and Total Capacity End-2015 and Newly Installed Capacity 2016, Top 20 Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .172Table R9 Wind Power Global Capacity and Additions, Top 10 Countries, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .173Table R10 Electricity Access by Region and Country, 2014 and Targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .174-177Table R11 Population Relying on Traditional Use of Biomass for Cooking, 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .178-180Table R12 Programmes Furthering Energy Access Selected Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .181-183Table R13 Networks Furthering Energy Access Selected Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .184-185Table R14 Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment, 2006-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186Table R15 Share of Primary and Final Energy from Renewable Sources, Targets and 2014/2015 Shares . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .187-189Table R16 Renewable Energy Targets for Technology- Specific Share of Primary and Final Energy . . .190Table R17 Share of Electricity Generation from Renewable Sources, Targets and 2015 Shares . . . . . . . . .191-194Table R18 Renewable Energy Targets for Technology- Specific Share of Electricity Generation . . . . . . . 195Table R19 Targets for Renewable Power Installed Capacity and/or Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . .196-202Table R20 Cumulative Number of Countries/States/ Provinces Enacting Feed-in Policies, and 2016 Revisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .203-204Table R21 Cumulative Number of Countries/States/ Provinces Enacting RPS/Quota Policies, and 2016 Revisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .205Table R22 Renewable Energy Auctions Held in 2016 by Country/State/Province . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .206Table R23 Heating and Cooling from Renewable Sources, Targets and 2015 Shares . . . . . . . . . . . .207Table R24 Transport Energy from Renewable Sources, Targets and 2015 Shares . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .208Table R25 National and State/Provincial Biofuel Blend Mandates, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .209Table R26 City and Local Renewable Energy Targets Selected Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .210-2114RENEWABLES 2017 · GLOBAL STATUS REPORTFIGURESFigure 1 Estimated Renewable Energy Share of Total Final Energy Consumption, 2015 . . . . . . . . .30Figure 2 Growth in Global Renewable Energy Compared to Total Final Energy Consumption, 2004-2014 . . .31Figure 3 Carbon Pricing Policies, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32Figure 4 Estimated Renewable Energy Share of Global Electricity Production, End-2016 . . . . . . . . 33Figure 5 Renewable Power Capacities in World, BRICS, EU-28 and Top 6 Countries, 2016 . . . . . .34Figure 6 Jobs in Renewable Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43Figure 7 Shares of Biomass in Total Final Energy Consumption and in Final Energy Consumption, by End-Use Sector, 2015 . . . . . . . . 47Figure 8 Global Bio-power Generation, by Region, 2006-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47Figure 9 Global Trends in Ethanol, Biodiesel and HVO production, 2006-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47Figure 10 Some Conversion Pathways to Advanced Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50Figure 11 Geothermal Power Capacity Additions, Share by Country, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53Figure 12 Geothermal Power Capacity and Additions, Top 10 Countries, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53Figure 13 Hydropower Global Capacity, Shares of Top 6 Countries and Rest of World, 2016 . . . . . . .58Figure 14 Hydropower Capacity and Additions, Top 9 Countries for Capacity Added, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . .58Figure 15 Solar PV Global Capacity and Annual Additions, 2006-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66Figure 16 Solar PV Global Capacity, by Country and Region, 2006-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66Figure 17 Solar PV Capacity and Additions, Top 10 Countries, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67Figure 18 Solar PV Global Capacity Additions, Shares of Top 10 Countries and Rest of World, 2016 . . .67Figure 19 Solar PV Global Additions, Share of Grid-Connected and Off-Grid Installations, 2006-2016 . . . . . . . . . .67Figure 20 Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Global Capacity, by Country or Region, 2006-2016 . . .73Figure 21 CSP Thermal Energy Storage Global Capacity and Annual Additions, 2007-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73Figure 22 Solar Water Heating Collectors Global Capacity, 2006-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78Figure 23 Solar Water Heating Collectors Global Capacity in Operation, Shares of Top 12 Countries and Rest of World, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78Figure 24 Solar Water Heating Collectors Additions, Top 20 Countries for Capacity Added, 2016 . . . . 79Figure 25 Solar Water Heater Applications for Newly Installed Capacity, by Economic Region, 2015 . . 79Figure 26 Wind Power Global Capacity and Annual Additions, 2006-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .88Figure 27 Wind Power Capacity and Additions, Top 10 Countries, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .88Figure 28 Wind Power Offshore Global Capacity, by Region, 2006-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .89Figure 29 Share of Electricity Demand Met by Wind Power, Selected Countries Over 10 and EU-28, 2016 . . .89Figure 30 Market Shares of Top 10 Wind Turbine Manufacturers, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .89Figure 31 Electricity Access in Developing Countries, 2014 . .98Figure 32 Access to Clean Cooking Facilities in Developing Countries, 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .98Figure 33 Growth in Off-Grid Solar Sales in Top 5 Countries, 2014-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100Figure 34 Status of Renewable Energy Mini/Micro-grid Markets, by Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101Figure 35 Cost of Various Cooking Technologies . . . . . . . .103Figure 36 Number of Clean Cook Stoves Added in Top 5 Countries, 2014 and 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .103Figure 37 Number of Domestic Biogas Plants Installed in Top 5 Countries, Total and Annual Additions, 2014-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .104Figure 38 Overview of Multilateral Funding for Energy Access and Distributed Renewable Energy, 2012-2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .105Figure 39 Investment in Pay-As-You-Go Solar Companies, 2012-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .106Figure 40 Investment in Clean Cook Stoves, 2011-2015 . .106Figure 41 Global New Investment in Renewable Power and Fuels, Developed, Emerging and Developing Countries, 2006-2016 . . . . . . . . .112Figure 42 Global New Investment in Renewable Power and Fuels, by Country and Region, 2006-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .114-115Figure 43 Global New Investment in Renewable Energy by Technology, Developed and Develo