《全球能源评估报告》.pdf

Global Energy Assessment Toward a Sustainable Future Council Co-Presidents Ged Davis and Jos é Goldemberg cutive Committee Co-Chairs Thomas B. Johansson and Anand Patwardhan Director Nebojsa Nakicenovic Associate Director Luis Gomez-Echeverri Convening Lead Authors Rangan Banerjee, Sally M. Benson, Daniel H. Bouille, Abeeku Brew-Hammond, Aleh Cherp, Suani T. Coelho, Lisa Emberson, Maria Josefi na Figueroa, Arnulf Grubler, Mark Jaccard, Suzana Kahn Ribeiro, Stephen Karekezi, Kebin He, Eric D. Larson, Zheng Li, Susan McDade, Lynn K. Mytelka, Shonali Pachauri, Anand Patwardhan, Keywan Riahi, Johan Rockstr ö m , Hans-Holger Rogner, Joyashree Roy, Robert N. Schock, Ralph Sims, Kirk R. Smith, Wim C. Turkenburg, Diana Ü rge-Vorsatz, Frank von Hippel, and Kurt Yeager Review Editors John F. Ahearne, Ogunlade Davidson, Jill Jäger, Eberhard Jochem, Ian Johnson, Rik Leemans, Sylvie Lemmet, Nora Lustig, Mohan Munasinghe, Peter McCabe, Granger Morgan, J ü rgen Schmid, Jayant Sathaye, Leena Srivastava, Youba Sokona, John Weyant, and Ji Zou Secretariat Martin Offutt, Mathis L. Rogner, Hal Turton, and Pat Wagner Global Energy Assessment GEA Editors Thomas B. Johansson Co-Chair Nebojsa Nakicenovic Director Anand Patwardhan Co-Chair Luis Gomez-Echeverri Associate Director International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria www.iiasa.ac.at CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, S ã o Paulo, Delhi, Mexico City www.cambridge.org www.globalenergyassessment.org © International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis 2012 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. First published 2012 Printed in the United States of America A catalog record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 9781 10700 5198 hardback ISBN 9780 52118 2935 paperback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet web sites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such web sites is or will remain, accurate or appropriate. The views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of IIASA, its national member organizations, or any other organizations supporting the work. GEA, 2012 Global Energy Assessment – Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Cover photoFigure 1.2 | Global energy flows of primary to useful energy, including losses, in EJ for 2005. Source adapted from Nakicenovic et al., 1998, based on IEA, 2007a; 2007b; 2010. Artwork by Anka James.Energy ExamplesPrimary 496 EJSecondary 352 EJFinal 330 EJUseful 169 EJConversionDistributionEnd useServicesRefineryTruckCarPassenger-kmPower PlantGridLight BulbLightCrude oilGasolineGasolineKineticCoalElectricityElectricityRadiantWaste and rejectedenergy496 EJ169 EJ161 EJ144 EJ22 EJ vGlobal Energy Assessment GEA CouncilGlobal Energy Assessment GEA CouncilMichael Ahearn, First Solar Inc., USA, 2009–2012 Dan Arvizu, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, USA, 2008–2012 Bert Bolin † , Stockholm University, Sweden, 2007 Tariq Banuri, erly Division for Sustainable Development, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2011 Monique Barbut, Global Environment Facility, 2009–2012 Corrado Clini, Italian Ministry for the Environment and Territory, 2008–2012 Robert Corell, Global Environment and Technology Foundation, USA, 2007–2012 Ged Davis, GEA Council Co-President, 2007–2012 Bo Diczfalusy, erly Swedish Ministry of Enterprise, Energy and Communications, 2008–2009 Gerald Doucet † , World Energy Council, 2007–2008 Fei Feng, Development Research Centre of the State Council of China, China, 2009–2012 Christoph Frei, World Energy Council, 2009–2012 Irene Giner-Reichl, Foreign Ministry of Austria, 2007–2012 Jose Goldemberg, GEA Council Co-President, 2007–2012 Leen Hordijk, erly International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2007–2008 Pavel Kabat, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2012 Tomas K å berger, erly Swedish Energy Agency, 2011–2012 Olav Kj ø rven, United Nations Development Programme, 2007–2012 Manfred Konukiewitz, German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2009–2012 Celso Fernando Lucchesi, Petrobras, Brazil, 2008–2012 Sten Nilsson, erly International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2008–2009 Kirit Parikh, erly Indian Planning Commission and Integrated Research and Action for Development, 2008–2012 Thomas Rosswall, erly International Council for Science, 2007 Jamal Saghir, World Bank, 2007–2012 John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany and International Council for Science, 2007–2012 Nikhil Seth, Division for Sustainable Development, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2011–2012 Achim Steiner, United Nations Environment Programme, 2007–2012 Bj ö rn Stigson, erly World Business Council for Sustainable Development, 2007–2012 Uno Svedin, erly Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning, 2007–2009 Claude Turmes, European Parliament, 2010–2012 Detlof von Winterfeldt, erly International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2009–2012 Robert Watson, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs and Tyndall Centre at the University of East Anglia, 2007–2012 Anders Wijkman, erly European Parliament, 2010–2012 Timothy E. Wirth, United Nations Foundation, 2007–2012 Kandeh Yumkella, United Nations Industrial Development Organization, 2007–2012 Dadi Zhou, Energy Research Institute, China, 2007–2012 viSponsoring OrganizationsSponsoring OrganizationsAustrian Development Agency Climateworks Foundation Deutsche Gesellschaft f ü r Internationale Zusammenarbeit First Solar Inc. Global Environment FacilityGlobal Environment and Technology FoundationItalian Ministry for the Environment and Territory International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisPetrobras Research Council of Norway Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning/Swedish Energy Agency United Nations Development Programme United Nations Environment Programme United Nations Foundation United Nations Industrial Development Organisation United States Department of Energy United States Environmental Protection Agency World Bank/ESMAP World Energy Council Contents Foreword······················································································································································x Preface ························································································································································xii Key Findings ···············································································································································xv Summary for Policy Makers ·······················································································································3 Technical Summary ···································································································································31 Chapter 1 Energy Primer ·····················································································································99 Chapter 2 Energy, Poverty, and Development ···················································································151 Chapter 3 Energy and Environment ···································································································191 Chapter 4 Energy and Health············································································································255 Chapter 5 Energy and Security·········································································································· 325 Chapter 6 Energy and Economy ········································································································385 Chapter 7 Energy Resources and Potentials ······················································································423 Chapter 8 Energy End-Use Industry ··································································································513 Chapter 9 Energy End-Use Transport ································································································575 Chapter 10 Energy End-Use Buildings ································································································649 Chapter 11 Renewable Energy ············································································································761 Chapter 12 Fossil Energy ·····················································································································901 Chapter 13 Carbon Capture and Storage ····························································································993 Chapter 14 Nuclear Energy ··············································································································1069 Chapter 15 Energy Supply Systems ··································································································1131 Chapter 16 Transitions in Energy Systems ························································································1173 Section 1Section 2Section 3Cluster 1Cluster 2viiviiiContentsChapter 17 Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development ·····················································1203 Chapter 18 Urban Energy Systems ···························································································1307 Chapter 19 Energy Access for Development ·············································································1401 Chapter 20 Land and Water Linkages to Bioenergy ·································································1459 Chapter 21 Lifestyles, Well-Being and Energy ···········································································1527 Chapter 22 Policies for Energy System Transations Objectives and Instruments ···············1549 Chapter 23 Policies for Energy Access ······················································································1603 Chapter 24 Policies for the Energy Technology Innovation System ETIS ·································1665 Chapter 25 Policies for Capacity Development ·········································································1745 Annex I Acronyms, Abbreviations and Chemical Symbols ···················································1803 Annex II Technical Guidelines ······························································································1815 Annex III Contributors to the Global Energy Assessment ······················································1823 Annex IV Reviewers of the Global Energy Assessment Report ··············································1833 Index ··············································································································································1839 Cluster 3Cluster 4Section 4IForeword and PrefacexForeword Foreword Energy is central to addressing major challenges of the 21st Century, challenges like climate change, economic and social development, human well-being, sustainable development, and global security. In 2005, Prof. Bert Bolin, the founding Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC, with other eminent scientists and policy-makers, identified that a comprehensive, science-based assessment of the global energy system was needed if these challenges were to be realistically addressed. The Global Energy Assessment GEA is the result of this shared vision. Since the establishment of the GEA in 2006 by governing Council of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA, 500 independent experts about 300 authors and 200 anonymous reviewers from academia, business, government, intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations from all the regions of the world have contributed to GEA in a process similar to that adopted by the IPCC. The final GEA report examines a the major global challenges and their linkages to energy; b the technologies and resources available for providing adequate, modern and affordable s of energy; c the plausible structure of future energy systems most suited to addressing the century’s challenges; and d the policies and measures, institutions and capacities needed to realize sustainable energy futures. Undertaking such a massive assessment has required extraordinary leadership, intellectual , support and coordination. Governance of the Assessment has been overseen by the GEA Council, led by two Co-Presidents, Ged Davis and Jos é Goldemberg and comprising members of supporters and sponsors of the GEA, including international organizations, government agencies, corporations, and foundations and non-governmental organizations. Convening Lead Authors CLAs coordinated the 25 Chapters and the contributions of Lead and Contributing Authors. The GEA cutive Committee, led by two Co-Chairs, Thomas B. Johansson and Anand Patwardhan includes all CLAs. Review Editors were appointed by the GEA Council for each Chapter. They in turn appointed anonymous reviewers and guided the rigorous peer-review process. Completion of GEA has involved dedication and sustained contributions from many colleagues around the world. Our thanks and gratitude go to Leen Hordijk, the IIASA Director who initiated GEA at IIASA; Sten Nilsson, IIASA Acting Director and Deputy Director; and Detlof von Winterfeldt, the IIASA Director who provided personal and institutional support throughout. The resources and the encouragement they provided helped make GEA a reality. The GEA Organizing Committee and the GEA Council provided wise counsel and guidance throughout. Additionally the GEA Council solicited financial and in-kind resources without which GEA would not have been possible. We are especially grateful for the contribution and support of the GEA Council, the cutive Committee, the Organizing Committee, the Secretariat, as well as the IIASA Council and management. As host organization for the GEA Secretariat, IIASA has provided subs