《 2019年世界贸易报告》.pdf

2019WORLD TRADE REPORT The future of services tradeWhat is the World Trade ReportThe World Trade Report is an annual publication that aims to deepen understanding about trends in trade, trade policy issues and the multilateral trading system.What is the 2019 Report aboutThe 2019 World Trade Report examines how trade in services is likely to evolve in response to some major trends, such as demographic changes and the impact of digital technologies. Find out moreWebsite www.wto.orgGeneral enquiries enquirieswto.orgTel 41 022 739 51 11ContentsAcknowledgements and Disclaimer 3Foreword by the WTO Director-General 4Key facts and findings 6cutive summary 7A. Introduction 121. Globalization of services 142. Digitalized services the non-tradable becomes hyper-tradable 143. The evolution of trade from agriculture to manufacturing to services 154. More complex services trade requires more coherent policies 175. Why it matters 176. Structure of the report 18B. Services trade in numbers 201. Trends in trade in services 222. Global trade in services through all modes of supply is worth US 13.3 trillion 223. Who trades services 314. What is the role of services in global value chains 44C. Why services trade matters 501. The gains from services trade 522. Services trade boosts firms’ competitiveness 653. How services trade affects employment and inclusiveness 694. Concluding observations 80D. Services trade in the future 821. Trade costs 842. Major trends that will affect trade in services 1003. Quantifying services trade in the future 1224. Concluding observations 134E. What role for international cooperation on services trade policy 1521. Introduction 1542. Why governments cooperate on services trade policy 1543. How countries collaborate in the services sphere 1654. Prospects for future cooperation 1845. Concluding observations 193F. Conclusions 198Opinion pieces Alan Beattie, “The case of the missing services” 23Sonja Grater, Ali Parry and Wilma Viviers, “MSMEs and services trade A pathway to inclusive growth in developing economies” 42Matteo Fiorini and Bernard Hoekman, “Services trade policy and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals SDGs” 66Rupa Chanda, “Ensuring inclusive services trade role of complementary domestic policies” 78Richard Baldwin, “Digital technology and telemigration” 126 Natallie Rochester, “The potential of trade in services for developing countries” 166Jane Drake-Brockman, “Why regulatory cooperation matters for business” 188CONTENTS1WORLD TRADE REPORT 20192Bibliography 200Technical notes 213Abbreviations and symbols 218List of figures, tables and boxes 219WTO members 225Previous World Trade Reports 226ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS3DisclaimerThe World Trade Report and its contents are the sole responsibility of the WTO Secretariat, except for the opinion pieces, which are the sole responsibility of their authors. The Report does not reflect the opinions or views of members of the WTO. The authors of the Report also wish to exonerate those who have commented upon it from responsibility for any outstanding errors or omissions.AcknowledgementsThe World Trade Report 2019 was prepared under the general responsibility of Xiaozhun Yi, WTO Deputy Director-General, and Robert Koopman, Director of the WTO Economic Research and Statistics Division. The Report was coordinated by Emmanuelle Ganne and Stela Rubínová Economic Research and Statistics Division and by Antonia Carzaniga Trade in Services and Investment Division. The lead authors of the Report are Barbara d’Andrea, Andreas Maurer, Roberta Piermartini and Robert Teh Economic Research and Statistics Division, and Antonia Carzaniga. Other authors are Marc Auboin, Eddy Bekkers, John Hancock, Kathryn Lundquist, José-Antonio Monteiro, Coleman Nee, Victor Stolzenburg, Ankai Xu and Qing Ye Economic Research and Statistics Division; Pamela Apaza, Markus Jelitto, Joscelyn Magdeleine, Juan Marchetti, Martin Roy and Lee Tuthill Trade in Services and Investment Division; and Rainer Lanz Development Division.Other written contributions were provided by Ege Akbas, Christophe Degain, Chiara Del Giovane, Anesu Gamanya, Emmanuelle Ganne and Stela Rubínová Economic Research and Statistics Division, and Niccolò Consonni, Dale Honeck, Ester Rubio and Ruosi Zhang Trade in Services and Investment Division.External contributions were received from Richard Baldwin Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva and Center for Economic Policy Research, London, Alan Beattie Financial Times, London, Rupa Chanda Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore, Jane Drake-Brockman Institute for International Trade, Adelaide, Matteo Fiorini European University Institute, Florence, Sonja Grater North-West University, South Africa, Bernard Hoekman European University Institute, Florence, and Center for Economic Policy Research, London, Ali Parry North-West University, South Africa, Natallie Rochester Mango Tales Ltd., Jamaica and Wilma Viviers North-West University, South Africa. Research s were provided by Ali Abdul Raheem, Laura Baiker, Adam Jakubik, Florian Knauth, Antonella Liberatore, Osama Nawab and Steen Wettstein. Xiaolin Chai and Marie-Isabelle Pellan from the Trade in Services and Investment Division and Marc Bacchetta from the Economic Research and Statistics Division provided useful comments on drafts. David Tinline from the Office of the Director-General provided valuable advice and guidance. The following individuals from outside the WTO Secretariat also provided useful comments on early drafts of the Report Rolf Adlung, Ali Alsamawi, Andrea Ariu, Richard Baldwin, Sebastian Benz, Dan Ciuriak, Jane Drake-Brockman, Matthias Helble, Bernard Hoekman, Sébastien Miroudot, Hildegunn Nordås, Jane Stacey and Sherry Stephenson.The text production of the Report was managed by Emmanuelle Ganne, Stela Rubínová, Anne Lescure and Diana Dent of the Economic Research and Statistics Division, and by Antonia Carzaniga of the Trade in Services and Investment Division. The production of the Report was managed by Anthony Martin and Helen Swain of the Ination and External Relations Division. Helen Swain edited the Report. Gratitude is also due to the translators in the Languages, Documentation and Ination Management Division for the high quality of their work.WORLD TRADE REPORT 20194Services are often largely overlooked in discussions on global trade, yet they account for the majority of trade in many developed economies and are growing rapidly in many developing economies as well. This is perhaps because services are less tangible and the issues surrounding services trade are often more complex. This report therefore sets out to demystify trade in services. It aims to shed new light on this essential part of global trade, provide a detailed picture of trade in services today and consider how it might evolve in the coming years, particularly as new technologies make some services increasingly tradeable.The Report deepens our understanding in a number of ways, including through presenting new data. By looking more closely at services delivered by a company that has an office or subsidiary in a foreign country, we have found that trade in services is significantly larger than previously thought. In fact, when this “commercial presence” is accounted for, trade in services was actually worth US 13.3 trillion in 2017 – therefore accounting for a share of overall global trade 20 percentage points higher than traditionally estimated. On average services trade has grown 5.4 per cent per year since 2005, which is faster than trade in goods, at 4.6 per cent on average. Distribution services and financial services are the most traded services globally, accounting for almost one-fifth of trade in services each, followed by telecommunications, audio-visual and computer services, which together account for 13.2 per cent. Trade in other sectors, such as educational, health, and environmental services, although currently relatively small, is rising rapidly. Developing countries’ share of global services trade has grown by more than 10 percentage points since 2005, reaching 25 per cent of world services exports and 34.4 per cent of world services imports in 2017. However, services trade is concentrated, with the same five developing economies ranking both as leading services exporters and importers. Together these five economies accounted for more than 50 per cent of developing countries’ services trade. Least-developed countries accounted for 0.3 per cent of world services exports and 0.9 per cent of world services imports in 2017, although this does represent an increase since 2005. One key message from the report is that services trade is evolving fast. Digital technologies, demographic changes, rising per capita incomes and climate change will all act as disruptors, potentially reducing trade costs, creating shifts in demand, and creating new markets, for example in environmental services. Digital technologies are likely to have a particularly significant impact as they change the ways that companies do business, allowing them to access a global marketplace and creating new channels through which to deliver services which were once provided face-to-face. Digital technologies can be a driver of inclusivity in services trade, by dramatically cutting costs and lowering barriers to entry. This is true for developing countries, and it is true for smaller businesses. Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises MSMEs that offer services are on average two years younger when they start exporting as compared to manufacturing MSMEs. New technologies have facilitated this faster access to international markets as MSMEs’ participation in services trade is frequently in digitizable services, such as professional and scientific activities. There is also a potential opportunity here to support women’s economic empowerment, as services play a prominent role in women’s employment. However, so far women are under-represented in the most traded service sectors. Groups of WTO members recently launched discussions on leveraging trade to support MSMEs and women’s economic empowerment. Services trade is clearly relevant in both cases. Services exports support a huge number of jobs around the world, but there is tremendous untapped potential. A further expansion of services trade will be reliant on a number of factors. The quality of institutions in the importing country is particularly significant. Driving new services trade res through trade agreements is also important, although progress in this area has often proved difficult. WTO Foreword by the WTO Director-GeneralFOREWORD BY THE WTO DIRECTOR-GENERAL5members continue to pursue multilateral negotiations on services trade, and a group of members recently launched an initiative towards greater cooperation on domestic regulation of services. How these efforts – and those in other fora, such as regional trade agreements – evolve, only time will tell. What is clear is that services represent a highly significant part of global trade – one which will be increasingly important in determining economic growth, development and job creation around the world. This report is a crucial step in increasing our understanding of this vitally important part of global trade – and therefore I want to thank the authors and contributors for their excellent work. Building on the contribution made by this report, the WTO will continue to improve its services data and is launching a biannual Services Trade Barometer to provide a real-time indicator of the strength of services trade globally. It is time that services took its rightful place front and centre in the global trade debate. Roberto AzevêdoDirector-GeneralWORLD TRADE REPORT 20196Key facts and findings Trade in services has expanded faster than trade in goods between 2005 and 2017, at 5.4 per cent per year on average. When commercial presence in another country mode 3 is accounted for, trade in services was worth US 13.3 trillion in 2017. Commercial presence is the dominant mode of supply for trading services globally, representing almost 60 per cent of trade in services in 2017. Distribution and financial services are the services most traded globally, each accounting for almost one-fifth of trade in services. The share of other services, such as education, health or environmental services, is rising rapidly, but currently accounts for a negligible proportion of overall trade in services. The contribution of developing economies to trade in services grew by more than 10 percentage points between 2005 and 2017, but is mainly concentrated in five economies. The share of least-developed countries remains small, although it has increased significantly since 2005. In developing economies, micro, small and medium-sized enterprises trading in services start exporting more quickly than manufacturing firms. However, they export less than 5 per cent of total sales, a share three times lower than large services firms. Firms owned by women are under-represented in services exports, although less so than in manufacturing. Services value-added accounts for close to half of the value of international goods and services trade. Trade in services creates welfare gains for society through a more efficient allocation of resources, greater economies of scale, and an increase in the variety of services on offer. In addition, some service sectors, such as infrastructural services, play a critical role in the functioning of the entire economy while others affect the productivity of the economy’s factors of production. An important avenue through which services trade benefits societies is the improvement in firms’ competitiveness, both in the services and manufacturing sectors. Because services providers must often be present in the area where the service is delivered, the quality of institutions in importing countries is of greater importance in services trade than in goods trade. A large number of jobs is supported by services exports, but the effect of services trade on the level and structure of employment has so far been minimal. Services trade may help to reduce economic inequality for women and for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. Trade costs in services are almost double those in goods, but they fell by 9 per cent between 2000 and 2017 thanks to the spread of digital technologies, the lowering of policy barriers, and investment in infrastructure. Four major trends will affect services trade in the future digital technologies, demographic changes, rising incomes, and the impact of climate change. These trends will create new types of services trade, affect the demand for services, and disrupt trade in some services while creating new markets in areas such as environmental services. According to the WTO Global Trade Model, the share in globa