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2 - CO₂EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION OVERVIEW 2018 edition INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The following analysis is an overview from the publication CO₂ Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2018. Please note that we strongly advise users to read definitions, detailed ology and country specific notes which can be found online under at http//wds.iea.org/wds/pdf/WorldCO2_documentation.pdf Please address your inquiries to emissionsiea.org. Please note that all IEA data is subject to the following Terms and Conditions found on the IEA’s website http//www.iea.org/t however, initial IEA analysis1showed that in 2017 emissions increased by around 1.5, led by China, India and the European Union. Figure 1. CO2emissions from fuel combustion global trend GtCO2Source values up to 2016 are based on IEA 2018 - CO2emissions from fuel combustion. The value for 2017 is based on IEA March 2018 - Global Energy with pronounced decreases in the UK -29, France -20, Italy -23, Spain -14 and Germany -10. Emissions also decreased significantly in the US -16, although overall levels in the Americas showed little change as other major economies across the region increased their emission levels Mexico 24, Brazil 43. Over the same period, Africa maintained much lower levels, accounting for around 3.5 of global emis-sions in 2016, despite emissions doubling from 1990, passing the billion tons in 2012 – with South Africa dominating the totals 36 in 2016. Oceania, accounted for about 1.5 of global totals, increasing by 53 since 1990, reaching in 2016 437 MtCO2. Oil and gas grow, coal decreases but is still the largest source of emissions In 2016, the global intensity of the energy mix CO2/TPES was 2.4 tCO2/toe, comparable to the 1990 level. The average carbon intensity is generally driven by the relative weights of the various sources within the TPES Figure 7. Figure 7. TPES and CO2emissions - 2016 Globally, the fossil share of TPES, 81 in 2016, has remained stable since 1990. Over the period, coal and oil represented together around 60 of TPES and almost 80 of CO2emissions. Gas remained at around 20 of TPES, with non-emitting sources ac-counting for the rest 19 in 2016. Coal was the second energy source 27 in 2016 and, due to its heavy carbon intensity4, the largest source of emissions globally 44. Emissions from coal, strongly driven by China, saw a more pronounced growth in emissions 4 per year than those of the other fossil fuels between 2000 and 2013; then, they decreased by around 1.5 per year between 2013 and 2016. Emissions from oil and gas had smoother growth trends over time, continuing to increase after 2013 4 and 5 respectively, in three years, especially in Asia and America - mostly linked to the raising demand of oil for transport and gas for electricity production Figure 8. Figure 8. CO2emissions by source GtCO2In 2016, coal emissions decreased by almost 300 MtCO2globally, with large falls across the Americas, China and Europe decreases included UK -49, Spain and Italy -11, the US -7, Germany -5 and 4 Default carbon emission factors from the 2006 IPCC Guidelines 15.3 tC/TJ for gas, 15.7 to 26.6 tC/TJ for oil products, 25.8 to 29.1 tC/TJ for primary coals. 27 32 22 1944 35 20 10 20 40 60 80 100TPESCO2Coal Oil Natural gas Other13.8 Gtoe32.3 GtCO20246810121416Coal Oil Natural gas OtherFigure 6. CO2emissions from fuel combustionAsia GtCO2* China region includes Hong Kong, China 36522416121018730246810121416181990 2016KoreaJapanMiddle EastIndiaRest of AsiaChina region*6 - CO₂EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION OVERVIEW 2018 edition INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY China 1.5, equivalent to more than 110 million tons. However, several Asian countries increased their emissions from coal including Indonesia 6, Philippines 13, India 1 Figure 9. Figure 9. CO2emissions by source 2016 change in selected regions MtCO2In 2016, emissions from gas grew across all regions by 170 MtCO2, and emissions from oil increased by 120 MtCO21 globally, mainly driven by coun-tries across Asia. In 2016, coal accounted for over 60 emissions in Asia; oil accounted for almost half the emissions in America and Africa. In Europe, coal, oil and gas al-most equally contributed to the total Figure 10. Figure 10. CO2emissions by source for selected regions, 2016 Electricity and heat generation remains the most emitting sector In 2016, the largest emitting sector overall was elec-tricity and heat generation, accounting for 42 of global emissions; five percentage points higher than 1990. When allocating emissions from electricity to consuming sectors5, industry was the largest emitter, with 36, or 12 billion tons of CO2; followed by buildings – whose share increased from 8 to 27 due to its strong reliance on electricity - and then transport, not significantly impacted by electricity emissions Figure 11. Figure 11. Global CO2emissions by sector, 2016 GtCO2In 2016, nearly one quarter of global emissions were generated in Asia from electricity and heat generation - an amount comparable to the sum of total emissions of Europe including Russia, Africa and Oceania put together Figure 12. For electricity and heat genera-tion more than 60 of global emissions were pro-duced in Asia, for industry more than 70. Figure 12. CO2emissions by sector for selected regions, 2016 GtCO2 * At the regional level, transport does not include international marine and aviation bunkers. 5 Emissions from electricity and heat generation have been allocated to the consuming sectors in proportion to the electricity and heat consumed. -7.21.9-1.56.6-0.11.2 2.9-0.20.42.58.44.1-150-100-50050100America Asia withoutChinaChina region EuropeCoal Oil Natural gas322361294248472435382030143520020406080100Africa Americas Asia Europe OceaniaWasteGasOilCoal42 19 36 8 27 24 25 7 12051015202530352016 2016 ele/heatreallocatedOtherTransportBuildingsIndustryElectricityand heat433547413614242676 024681012141618Africa with shares lower than five percent, it remained low in China and India Figure 15. Electricity from renewables6was higher than 15 for all the top producers, and particularly large in the Eu-ropean Union and China. Renewable sources besides hydro accounted for around 8 of total production, with great variability among regions. In 2016 nuclear contributed for 12 of electricity gen-eration for the top producers, and for 10 globally. Figure 15. Electricity generation by source for selected countries, 2016 * Other renewables/Waste includes geothermal, solar, wind, tide/wave/ocean, biofuels and waste. Between 2010 and 2016, while global electricity produc-tion grew by 16 3.5 PWh, emissions grew by 7 thanks to improvements in the fossil generation efficien-cies and increases in renewable generation. In China, increases in renewables share in the mix 34 and in efficiencies of fossil generation 7 helped offset the increase of demand 47, and thus contained the growth in emissions to 23, or 730 million tons over the period 2010-16 Figure 16. 6 Renewables includes hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, tide/wave/ocean, and biofuels. 28274920292725153631293723322616111312140 20 40 60 80 100OceaniaEuropeAsiaAmericasAfricaIndustry Transport Buildings Other**01020304050607080Oil consumption / GDP Ele consumption / GDP3316752331698121394851933318262071791161911719960 20 40 60 80 100JapanRussiaIndiaEuropean UnionUnited StatesChina regionCoal OilNatural gas NuclearHydro Other renewables/Waste*8 - CO₂EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION OVERVIEW 2018 edition INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Figure 16. Drivers of electricity CO2emissions 2010-16 annual changes MtCO2In both the Americas and Europe, similar improve-ments led to overall emission reductions, as electricity demand was fairly stable. In the rest of Asia, CO2emissions from electricity generation increased across major countries for ex-ample in Japan, while electricity demand remained almost flat, fossil generation increased up to over 80 after the Fukushima disaster; in India and Korea, the mix remained rather stable but demand increased by 500 TWh and 60 TWh. Around three quarters of emissions in industry from Asia The industry sector accounted for more than 6 GtCO2in 2016, 19 of global emissions. Metals and minerals accounted for more than one third of industrial energy consumption and more than a half of emissions - due to their heavy reliance on coal. Between 2000 and 2016, energy consumption of the iron and steel sector in-creased by 80 200 Mtoe, while emissions almost doubled, reaching 1.8 GtCO2Figure 17. At the regional level, the Americas and Europe saw falls in energy consumption by industry by 8 and 13, while Asia more than doubled. China itself ac-counted for around 1 Gtoe in 2016, equal to the sum of the combined industrial consumption of Europe, Americas, Oceania and Africa Figure 18. In the metal and minerals sectors, China and India together represented 60 of the global consumption, producing around 2.2 GtCO2emissions. While consumption in the chemical and petrochemical sector was homogeneously distributed across the re-gions, the Americas represented more than one third of global food industry consumption and almost one half of that of paper. In Europe, sub-sectoral shares were comparable, at around 15. Between 2000 and 2015 global industrial emissions in-creased by almost 2.4 GtCO2but intensities overall de-creased by 3 in the same period with a peak in 2011. Figure 18. Industry consumption by sector for selected regions, 2016 Mtoe China’s emissions in the industrial sector more than tripled between 2000 and 2015 pushed by nearly 900 MtCO2increase in the iron and steel sector, but emissions per unit of value added in industry de-creased by 30, Figure 19. In the same period India’s industrial emissions in-creased by 320 MtCO2whilst its intensity decreased by 7. In US and Japan, industrial emissions dropped 140 MtCO2and 30 MtCO2 whilst value added in-creased thus causing intensities to decline by around 40 and 30. -150-100-50050100150200250Americas Europe China region Asia w/oChina regionCO₂ intensity of fossil mix Generation efficiencyFossil share of electricity Total electricity outputCO₂ emissions01002003004005006007008009001000Africa andOceaniaAmericas Asia withoutChinaChina region EuropeFood, paper, wood, textile Chemical and petrochemicalOther metals and minerals OtherIron and steelFigure 17. Industry consumption and CO2emissions, 2016 *Other includes mining and quarrying, transport equipment, machinery,construction and industry non-specified. 30172534211915168140 25 50 75 100CO2emissionsEnergyconsumptionIron and steel Other*Other metals and minerals Chemical and petrochemicalFood, paper, wood, textile2.8 Gtoe6.1 GtCO2CO₂EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION OVERVIEW 2018 edition - 9 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Figure 19. Emissions and intensity* for the largest industry emitters 2000 – 2015 changes *Based on value added in 2010 USD. Emissions data from IEA 2017 – CO2emissions from fuel combustion; value added data from UNIDO – International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics. Fast growing transport Globally, transport accounted for one quarter of total emissions in 2016, around 8 GtCO2, 71 larger than in 1990. The highest absolute increase was in road, 2.5 GtCO2, although in relative terms bunkers in-creased the most, 84 for navigation and 115 for aviation. Overall, the share of road transport emis-sions increased by two percentage points to 74, while air and water remained unchanged Figure 20. Figure 20. Global transport CO2emissions by sub-sector GtCO2* Other includes rail, pipeline and other non-specified. Air and water include international bunkers. The Americas historically had the highest transport emission levels of all regions, and - although at a re-duced rate – continued growing over recent years Figure 21. Since 1990, US accounts for more than two thirds of transport emissions for the Americas though its share declined over time. In 2016 Brazil reached a share of 8 after more than doubling its transport emissions since 1990 Figure 22. Figure 21. Transport CO2emissions by region GtCO2Figure 22. Transport CO2emissions – selected countries in the Americas and Asia GtCO2Asia – with annual growth rates five time larger than the Americas 4.5 versus 0.7 – reached compara-ble levels in 2016 around 2.5 GtCO2, starting from less than half in 1990. In 2016, transport emissions in China 0.8 GtCO2 were half those of the US, repre-senting 35 of transport emissions in Asia. India had a share of 11 of transport emissions in Asia in 2016, Japan 9, decreasing by 15 percentage points since 1990. In Europe, transport emissions in 2016 were 6 larger than in 1990, with 0.5 annual growth between 2012 and 2016. Africa almost tripled its transport emissions since 1990, although in 2016 levels were lower than 400 MtCO2. Oceania in the same period increased by 60, reaching 1015 MtCO2. -50050100150200250ChinaregionIndia Japan US RussiaEmissions change Emissions/value added change1011121272740123456781990 2016RoadAirWaterOther*00.511.522.51990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015Europe Americas AsiaOceania Africa20167869108 761335 25 2018161126900.511.522.5Americas Asia Americas AsiaKoreaIndonesiaJapanIndiaMiddle EastRest of AsiaChina regionSeries14MexicoCanadaBrazilRest of AmericasUnited States1990 2016AsiaAmericas10 - CO₂EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION OVERVIEW 2018 edition INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Between 2000 and 2016 the largest increase in transport emissions globally was in China – tightly linked to GDP growth Figure 23. The average annual growth of 9 in per capita GDP since 2000 was the main driver for the 600 MtCO2emissions growth.In the US, while population 15 and GDP 33 increased, transport emissions stayed almost flat thanks to the improvements in intensity on GDP -21 and carbon intensity of the energy mix -6 mostly due to an increased share of biofuels. A possible decoupling, great inequalities though When considering all economic activities together, de-coupling between total emissions and GDP was par-ticularly significant since 2013 Figure 24. The combined effects of carbon intensity of the energy mix -2 and intensity of GDP -7 helped emissions remain flat despite growth in economy and population. In 2016, global emissions per capita were 4.3 tCO2, 14 than in 2000 Figure 25. Per capita emissions in China more than doubled, reaching values similar to European Union. While population grew by less than 10, total CO2emis-sions almost tripled. While between 2000 and 2016 India doubled the emissions, its per capita value was still one quarter of European Union in 2016. Flat since 2000, Africa
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