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ªNÅú ï Ê[¼ 11 ¼ 3 ú2015 N 5 PROGRESSUS INQUISITIONES DE MUTATIONE CLIMATISVol. 11 No. 3May 2015f àAssessment of Global Energy Balance as Simulatedby 43 CMIP5 Climate Modelsà 5 4ò D N J Q 6 U F p Ý ð 2 cÀwѺ pe TÑÐÈ Ù 2 1 1 1 9 5 3 ÐT a T F ªÐÈ Ù 2 1 1 1 9 2 º p ªe¦ Ý è º p ª NŦ ÈzO p ݦú ïC±tØkÈ8º p ªe U p ݦ FsU_ú ï¦Ø2Ú6®C \1-2 IPCC¼õR àâ Ä AR5Å ¸ \1 È .¼õR U2 Ä Ä CMIP5Å[¦º pe U F ªe 5 ò «[ 춹 À ÊÈ_± ¥ ຠpe U F p ݦú ï ¡ Wild ª \2 Lú ïX à 43ò CMIP5º pe U F p Ý[ ì¦ ðÈ\0 f » à ³U 43ò CMIP5 ª UÄ Ð 4òÐT ªUÈtZ_ BCC-CSM1.1 BCC-CSM1.1m BNU-ESM FGOALS-g2Å Ä oW 1Å È w U¦¤ ÝtP rÈ ¡Z¦º 3.75C 3.47C È ¡¦º 0.56C 0.56C È ª U¦ æOl Ä J oï¶ èÅ W 1860 2005 NÈ « 20062012 N } RCP8.5 g àú ïÐ } 21X AL 5 NÈ_ CMIP5 æOl¦L« 5 NÈ 20002004 NUº ٠ݦIÑ®2¦5ª _ ÆT NASAÐ Terra Aqua5¦w å CERES EBAFÈ IXÊwº 20012010 N W ì ¦5ª üËà on 1È Ð 760òü¦ 2 GEBAÄ global energy balance archiveÅ È ü5ªÊ 8T2 20 X A 50 N 60 N 70 Nª 41 òü 2 BSRNÄ baseline surfacev8L 2 - 3È ¨ 2ÈÜ z] 2doi10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.03.010v8L , ¨ , Ü z] . à 43 ò CMIP5 U F p Ý ð [J]. ªNÅú ï Ê[ , 2015, 11 3 227-230radiation networkÅ È 5ª Ê 8T2 20 X A90 N OÏ 43ò[ T5ª \2 ¯À5ª }2 ¡ 5ÈzO5ªI X¦2q_eÉùí } 43ò CMIP5 U F¦w åw Ð W ì Ýót ÑN¦ü5ª Ê2¤j à U¦ FsUú\ Ö T F2 TÑ ÂÄ 41305054Å È 973 \ Ä 2013CB956604Ån 1 5ªÅËÃ[2]Fig. 1 Locations of observed stations[2]ü Ä2 BSRNÅ W ì ü Ä2 GEBAÅ[ T W 43ò CMIP5 ª U F ³UÑW5ª Ù¦w åw Ð W ì m¦ÿ Ê2W ýÄ oW 1Å Ö 1 ª U¦ Ý È _ eºÏ_[ È _w åw ÐÏ_WìÈü¶ ¡{¦ FsU 2 Wóò UBÈ 1/3¦ U FWÛÈ 1/3 U FW¯ 3 eº U® X¦¶µÈ w å¶ 19 W/m2È w жf à ªNÅú ï Ê[228 2015 NW 1 2000 2004 N CMIP5 ¦ 43 ò U F eº 0 [ w åw Ð\ W ì m¦ÿ Ñõ5ª Ù¦µÄ« 4 Å Ä ÔE [2] zWÅTable 1 Annual mean solar radiation budgets solar absorption at top of atmosphere, within the atmosphere, and surface overterrestrial/ocean surface calculated by 43 CMIP5 models for present day climate in 2000 .2004, observed data are at last four linesbased on Ref.[2]U ÄT F G¯ÅCSIRO-BOM ACCESS1.0ÄÐw çñÅCSIRO-BOM ACCESS1.3ÄÐw çñÅBCC-CSM1.1ÄÐTÅBCC-CSM1.1mÄÐTÅBNU-ESMÄÐTÅCanESM2Ä G wÅCCSM4Ä ÆTÅCESM1BGCÄ ÆTÅCESM1CAM5Ä ÆTÅCESM1CAM5.1, FV2Ä ÆTÅCESM1FASTCHEMÄ ÆTÅCESM1WACCMÄ ÆTÅCMCC-CESMÄjw çÅCMCC-CMÄjw çÅCMCC-CMSÄjw çÅCNRM-CM5ÄFTÅCSIRO-Mk3.6.0ÄÐw çñÅFGOALS-g2ÄÐTÅGFDL-CM3Ä ÆTÅGFDL-ESM2GÄ ÆTÅGFDL-ESM2MÄ ÆTÅGISS-E2-HÄ ÆTÅGISS-E2-H-CCÄ ÆTÅGISS-E2-RÄ ÆTÅGISS-E2-R-CCÄ ÆTÅHadCM3ÄTÅHadGEM2-CCÄTÅHadGEM2-ESÄTÅINM-CM4Ä- ¯ÅIPSL-CM5A-LRÄFTÅIPSL-CM5A-MRÄFTÅIPSL-CM5B-LRÄFTÅ w åeº / [ 215/254219/253207/247212/247214/252217/250214/255214/255207/254203/252214/256208/247202/246207/249206/249221/257220/242203/250210/250208/252208/252199/256200/255204/254204/254214/250214/252215/252221/255219/247218/244215/24966/7566/7570/7670/7670/7874/7972/7872/7874/7975/7972/7872/7880/7976/7777/7878/8068/7663/7269/7671/7571/7566/7266/7166/7166/7274/7667/7467/7574/8064/7264/7265/73148/178153/178136/171142/170143/174142/171141/176142/177132/174127/172142/177136/168121/166130/172129/170142/177151/165139/177141/174136/177136/177133/184134/183137/183137/183139/174147/177147/177146/174154/175154/172149/175W/m2 w eº / [ W ìeº / [ 3 ú 229v8L黅 à 43 ò CMIP5 U F p Ý ð153/170148/168147/164146/163135/172137/174136/173136/178136/179140/16817 W/m2È W ìLwȶ 33 W/m2È [ U®X¦¶µmÀ eº 43ò CMIP5 U ÏtZ2 eº[ p w åw Ð W ì m§ót¦ FsUÈjÑN À5ª¦ Ùµ Ê2È ³UW ý U ¶Cè¦ F ðW 2 ô 43ò CMIP5 U Ý F pW ì m§ót Ä p Êp / ¤ Ì ¤Z Å Ñ5ª Ù ³U¦2È W\ B Ö 1 U Ý ¦ FsU ¡{È U Ý Ñ5ª¦¶µCïØ 5 W/m2È ÐÈ ¶µLm¦_ p Ä 0.1W/m2ŠȶµLw¦_0 p ë p Ä 4.4 W/m2Å 2 óò U® X¦¶Z ¡wÈ U X¦¶µT·º 1019 W/m2È ¶µLm¦_ p Ä 10.5 W/m2ŠȶµLw¦_0 p Ä 18.6 W/m2Å W 2 43 ò CMIP5 U Ý F pW ì m§ót Ñ5ª Ùµ2ĶµWV æÅ Ä ÔE [2] zWÅTable 2 Simulated energy balance components averaged overglobal surface by 43 CMIP5 models and estimates from theobserved data negative values indicate energy loss basedon Ref. [2]t CMIP5 Ý Ä¶µT·Å Wild ª[2]0 p p ë p 0Êp Êp ëÊp ë / ¤Z Ì ¤Z 189.1 18.6 .24.7 10.5164.5 17.2340.1 18.5 .398.4 11.8 .58.3 15.7106.2 17.2 .85.8 13.9 .18.9 13.1184.7 .24.6160.1341.5 .398.2 .56.7103.3 .82.0 .20.7W/m2MIROC-ESMÄ ±ÅMIROC-ESM-CHEM9Ä ±ÅMIROC4hÄ ±ÅMIROC5Ä ±ÅMPI-ESM-MRĤTÅMPI-ESM-LRĤTÅMPI-ESM-PĤTÅMRI-CGCM3Ä ±ÅMRI-ESM1Ä ±ÅNorESM1-MÄ ÌÆÅ220/248217/245215/241215/241207/250209/252208/250203/253203/254211/24667/7869/7768/7668/7772/7772/7772/7766/7467/7570/77NorESM1-MEÄ t°Å43 ò U Wild ª 2014 *Ä 2000 2005 NÅTrenberth ªÄ 2009Å Ä 2000 2005 NÅERA-InterimÄ Berrisford ª - 2011ÅÄ 1989 2008 NÅCERES EBAFÄ Loeb ªÈ 2012 KatoªÈ 2013Å Ä 2000 2005 NÅ211/245211.4 202221/250.8 241257213.3/251.7216.8/247.7218.6/254.7213.3/251.770/7770.3 6380/76.5 718077.3/81.778.0/78.278.9/80.574.2/79.6141.1 121154/174.3 163184136/170145.1/167.8139.7/174.2139.1/172.1ÄW 1U ÄT F G¯Å w åeº / [ w eº / [ W ìeº / [ 153/170148/168147/164146/163135/172137/174136/173136/178136/179140/168141/168f à2302015 N ªNÅú ï Ê[ 9 ïÈ 43ò CMIP5 UÑ5ª Ùµ2W ýÈ CMIP5 ª U¦ Ý p eº [ w åw Ð W ì ݶ ¡{¦ F ðÈ_ U® X¦¶tÏ_ ¡w¦´2¸ ¦_ÈUõ5ªµ Ù¦ p ݦóòt ¦¶t_ ýB¦ÈzO¶ ÊC 5Û5ª t ¦Ê È Êø W M¦ F ³U¦2ÈW8 ÊC [ À Ê ªUIPCC. Climate change 2013 the physical science basis [M]. CambridgeCambridge University Press, 2013 1308Wild M, Folini D, Hakuba M Z, et al. The energy balance over land andoceans an assessment based on direct observations and CMIP5 climatemodels [J]. Clim Dyn, 2014, doi 10.1007/s00382-014-2430-z JÔE[1][2] C\ú ïW ýÖ 3 Þc¦Iù ¸ ´À ±nN q¦[¤ÐÈ8 P W ¦ 10 N Û 3 c¦i϶ Bø¦w 3 cÃ_®Ã 3 w e wtº v¦©©c«È ϦIù¯ýÜ·[ Цc PïÈucP 3 cà èU©È À ¥ºt ¦c §ëU©È¶úÀ iÐcÃЦc, A Ç[ ¦Ï 8ÈN q¦[¤C± TLuc P¦¹ÈQ º[N¥eÉ È e Ñ c Pc¦§ë ðÖZ,Z ýBº D 3 cÃÄ WAISŦtº vÈÊ ú\uº vC± «º_ 3 w e ø¹_t ªNÅZ¦º v W ¦ ,F N ÛÈWAIS¦ ò vØ ® Ï ç[ Z ¯Û Ì[[ vÈ Ýæ ,Zùئc9i g GÝÞæh¯ Y Û õ¯[ ú ïï¦qWú ï4Fernando Paolo ZÈÝ ÙR öÄ8¼¶ØঠªÐïÇ ¦Ð ÃsªÛ³ C È¥ Î 20 N 3 Þc¦Iù âÏiÑï ¦5ª ÙR ª_ yÞu ¦ ERS-1 Ð ERS-2 ÐtZ 1991 2000 N 1995 2011 N X´¦ ªÈ\ yÞu ¦ ENVISAT ÐÀ 2002 2012 N X´¦ ª ú ï §õ ó . Science¾ Mò ¢¦9g ° _ù .¦Ö 1994 2003 NÈòw e c P9 Å Nëm 25 km3Ä 64 km3Å _È 2003 2012 NÈc P9 ë i Ó Å N 310 km3Ä 74 km3Å W oÈW ¦ 10 NÐÈò 3 Þw e c P9 ëm¦ Ý Ïww G z ¤Å vØ® Ï ç[ Z ¯Û Ì[[ v¦c P 20 N¦I X Û© i 18 _ú ï §õ¢Ö 3 Þë¦ g c Ñ6 Ûc P¦9 C± pïÈ W_ñ Í W 20 N¦I X Ûj Á¶D ý ¦9 ëm uüÑþÕ ²¤ Js2 ÆT TѾ3ª http//news.sciencemag.org/ñUÖ Carolyn Gramling
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