平衡气候敏感度.pdf

.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null8.null.null3.null2012.null5.null PROGRESSUS INQUISITIONES DE MUTATIONE CLIMATISVol. 8 No. 3May 2012Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity.nullnonmarkingreturn “N.nullnonmarkingreturn “ * J.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturnNMMUTN.nullO.nullnonmarkingreturn “nonmarkingreturn .null.nullnonmarkingreturnNMMMUN.nullP.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturnNMMMUQ.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullequilibrium climate sensitivity,ECS.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “nonmarkingreturn CO2.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullx1J2z.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullCO2.nullnonmarkingreturn 280.null10J6.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “560.null10J6.nullCO2.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “600.null10J6.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .null1900.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturnECS.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullx3z.null.null.nullIPCC.null1.nullx4z.null.null2.nullx5z.nullnonmarkingreturn3.nullx6z.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn3.nullnonmarkingreturn1.5.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn1.5.null4.5.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn 3.nullnonmarkingreturn “ 21.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .null4.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullx2z.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,.null.nullECS.null2.0.null4.5.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn ECS.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null1.nullnonmarkingreturnIPCC.null4.nullnonmarkingreturn “10.nullnonmarkingreturn “ECS.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn 7.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullx7J13z.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .null3.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullLGM.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullx14J16z.null.nullnonmarkingreturn1.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,-*./.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “0.6.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn 0.2.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “2.0.null3.5.nullnonmarkingreturn.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn LGM.nullnonmarkingreturn “ECS.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn nonmarkingreturn“LGM.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn NIP.null.null.nullOIP.null.nullnonmarkingreturn P.null.nullnonmarkingreturn N.null.nullnonmarkingreturn Pdoi10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.03.012.nullnonmarkingreturn , .nullnonmarkingreturn, .nullnonmarkingreturn , .null. .nullnonmarkingreturn “[J]. .nullnonmarkingreturn “, 2012, 8 3 232J234.nullnonmarkingreturn .null973.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn 2000.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,-./0.null2010CB950104.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .null9-XDA05090104.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ECS.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullx17z.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “Science.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullx18z.nullnonmarkingreturn ECS.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullIPCC.null4.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullx19z.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .null1 .nullnonmarkingreturn “ECS.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn 5.null95.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “Fx1zFig. 1 Comparison between different estimates of the probabilitydensity function for equilibrium climate sensitivity ESC Thebars show the respective 5 to 95 ranges, dots show themedian estimate[1].nullnonmarkingreturn .nullECS.nullnonmarkingreturn “ 2011.null7.nullNature Geoscience.nullnonmarkingreturn 3.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullx20J22z.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullx23z.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “Zeebex21z.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn “ “*.nullnonmarkingreturn ECS.nullnonmarkingreturn “ nonmarkingreturn*.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “ ECS.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ECS.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “IPCC.null4.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “ECS.null2.0.null4.5.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn CO2.nullnonmarkingreturn00.8.nullnonmarkingreturn 123456789ECS/.null100.70.60.50.40.30.20.10J0.1J0.2Forster/Gregory 2006Frame 2005Knutti 2002Andronova 2001Forest 2006Forest 2002Gregory 2002Hegerl palaeo 2006Schneider LGM 2006Annan LGM 3.null233.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturnL.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null5.3.null2.6 MaBP.nullCO2.nullnonmarkingreturn “ 7.null10.nullx24z.null2011.null3.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullx21z.nullValdesx20z.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturnIPCC.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .null.nullnonmarkingreturn 10.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,-“..nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,-./01.nullnonmarkingreturn Valdesx20z.nullnonmarkingreturn4.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .null21.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “nonmarkingreturn .nullPETM.null.nullnonmarkingreturn55.8 MaBP.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “5.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “20.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .null“ *.nullnonmarkingreturn “PETM.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn nonmarkingreturn.null18.null15 MaBP.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.null3.6.null2.6 MaBP.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn CO2.nullnonmarkingreturn PETM.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “500.null10J6.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “CO2.nullnonmarkingreturn.null600.null10J6.null.null.nullx22z.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn9.0.null5.5 kaBP.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,-./012.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “5.5 kaBP.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “6.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullH.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ 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