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Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2008, 4 6 357J362 357.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullQ.null.nullS.nullOMMU.null NN.null ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCHVo l . 4, No.6November, 2 0 0 8.nullnonmarkingreturn “1673-1719 2008 06-0357-06.nullnonmarkingreturn “ mid summer; bottom winter35.nullN115.nullE116.nullE117.nullE118.nullE119.nullE 120.nullE 121.nullE 122.nullE34.nullN33.nullN32.nullN31.nullN30.nullN29.nullN1817161514131235.nullN115.nullE116.nullE117.nullE118.nullE119.nullE 120.nullE 121.nullE 122.nullE34.nullN33.nullN32.nullN31.nullN30.nullN29.nullN1817161514131235.nullN115.nullE116.nullE117.nullE118.nullE119.nullE 120.nullE 121.nullE 122.nullE34.nullN33.nullN32.nullN31.nullN30.nullN29.nullN34333231302928272635.nullN115.nullE116.nullE117.nullE118.nullE119.nullE 120.nullE 121.nullE 122.nullE34.nullN33.nullN32.nullN31.nullN30.nullN29.nullN34333231302928272635.nullN115.nullE116.nullE117.nullE118.nullE119.nullE 120.nullE 121.nullE 122.nullE34.nullN33.nullN32.nullN31.nullN30.nullN29.nullN43210J1J2J335.nullN115.nullE116.nullE117.nullE118.nullE119.nullE 120.nullE 121.nullE 122.nullE34.nullN33.nullN32.nullN31.nullN30.nullN29.nullN43210J1J2J3a .nullnonmarkingreturn “ b .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn/ .null .nullnonmarkingreturn/ .nullc .nullnonmarkingreturn “ mid summer; bottom winter35.nullN115.nullE116.nullE117.nullE118.nullE119.nullE 120.nullE 121.nullE122.nullE34.nullN33.nullN32.nullN31.nullN30.nullN29.nullN3.02.92.82.72.62.52.42.32.22.12.035.nullN115.nullE116.nullE117.nullE118.nullE119.nullE 120.nullE 121.nullE122.nullE34.nullN33.nullN32.nullN31.nullN30.nullN29.nullN0.50.40.30.20.10.035.nullN115.nullE116.nullE117.nullE118.nullE119.nullE 120.nullE 121.nullE122.nullE34.nullN33.nullN32.nullN31.nullN30.nullN29.nullN4.54.03.53.02.52.035.nullN115.nullE116.nullE117.nullE118.nullE119.nullE 120.nullE 121.nullE122.nullE34.nullN33.nullN32.nullN31.nullN30.nullN29.nullN1.00.80.60.40.20.0J0.2J0.4J0.6J0.835.nullN115.nullE116.nullE117.nullE118.nullE119.nullE 120.nullE 121.nullE122.nullE34.nullN33.nullN32.nullN31.nullN30.nullN29.nullN3.02.92.82.72.62.52.42.32.22.12.035.nullN115.nullE116.nullE117.nullE118.nullE119.nullE 120.nullE 121.nullE122.nullE34.nullN33.nullN32.nullN31.nullN30.nullN29.nullN0.80.60.40.20.0J0.2J0.4J0.6a .nullnonmarkingreturn “ b .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn/ .null.nullnonmarkingreturn/ mm/dc .nullnonmarkingreturn “ d .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn/ .null.nullnonmarkingreturn/ mm/de .nullnonmarkingreturn “ f .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn/ .null.nullnonmarkingreturn/ mm/d.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullB2.nullnonmarkingreturn PRECIS.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ the model was then used to project the climate change over 2071J2100 inthe valley. The results give a regional annual average surface warming of 2.9.null and a somewhat increase in precipitationunder the SRES B2 emission scenario by the end of the 21st century 2071J2100. The results also present moreextremely high temperature events during summer and fewer extremely cold events during winter. The number ofdays with heavy rain especially above 120 mm/d will be likely to increase.Key words climate change; regional climate model; PRECIS; CO2; projection1 Anhui Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Hefei 230061, China; 2 Institute of Environment and SustainableDevelopment in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaTian Hong1, Xu Yinlong2, Lin Erda2120 mm/d.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn,-./.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.null.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “PRECIS.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,-./0.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn [1] .nullnonmarkingreturn, .nullnonmarkingreturn, .nullnonmarkingreturn . .null50.nullnonmarkingreturn “ [J]. .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturnnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.null, 2005, 35 4 539J544Guo Yufu, Yu Yongqiang, Liu Xiying, et al. Simulation of climate changeinduced by CO2increasing for East Asia with IAP / LASG GOALS Model[J]. Advances in Atomspheric Sciences, 2001, 18 1 53J65.nullnonmarkingreturn . .nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,-./0IPCC SRESA2.nullB2.nullnonmarkingreturn “[J]. .nullnonmarkingreturn , 2003, 48 7 737J742[2][3].nullnonmarkingreturn , .nullnonmarkingreturn , .nullnonmarkingreturn . 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