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doi10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2013.02.002.nullnonmarkingreturn, .nullnonmarkingreturn , .nullnonmarkingreturn , .null. .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn .null 2012-10-16.nullnonmarkingreturn .null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ 2 National Climate Center, ChinaMeteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, ChinaAbstract Based on the observed daily precipitation records from 540 stations and the 3839 gridded data from ahigh-resolution regional climate model CCLM in 1961J2010, the simulation ability of the CCLM on the dailyprecipitation in China was examined, and the variation of daily precipitation distribution pattern was revealed aswell. By applying the probability and extreme value theory to the projected data of daily precipitation underthe A1B scenario in 2011J2050 by the CCLM, possible trends of daily precipitation series and its extremes wereanalyzed. Results show that except the western of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and South China, distributive patterns ofthe kurtosis and skewness calculated from the simulated and observed series are consistent with each other, and theirspatial correlation coefficients are up to 0.75 or more. The CCLM model can well capture the distribution characteristicsof daily precipitation over China. It was projected that in some parts of the Jianghuai region, the mid-eastern part ofNortheast China and Inner Mongolia, the kurtosis and skewness will rise significantly, and precipitation extremeswill also increase simultaneously in 2011J2050. The increases in projected maximum daily rainfall and largest non-precipitation days in the flood season in the above mentioned regions, also prove the intensified trends of droughtsand floods in the next 40 years afar 2010.Key words CCLM model; daily precipitation pattern; kurtosis; skewness2012.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,-./.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullNOAA.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn2012.nullnonmarkingreturn “14.47.null.null58.03.nullF.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn.null20.nullnonmarkingreturn “0.57.null.null1.03.nullF.nullnonmarkingreturn2012.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn 2012.nullnonmarkingreturn1880.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.null10.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “ 20.nullnonmarkingreturn 36.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “133.nullnonmarkingreturn 21.nullnonmarkingreturn 12.nullnonmarkingreturn “14.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null12.nullnonmarkingreturn “ 2012.nullnonmarkingreturn “8.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *, -.OMNO.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn 2012.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null2012.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,-./0123.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullNASA.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,-./01.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ 2012.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null9.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .null.nullnonmarkingreturn http//news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/.nullnonmarkingreturn Sid Perkins
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