工业化以来全球平均温度上升了1℃.pdf

.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null9.null.null5.null2013.null9.null PROGRESSUS INQUISITIONES DE MUTATIONE CLIMATISVol. 9 No. 5September 2013Global Mean Temperature Has Risen by 1.nullSince the Industrialization.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *N.nullN.nullnonmarkingreturn “ * J.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturnNMMUTN.nullO.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturnNMMMUQ.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullx1-3z.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .null.nullnonmarkingreturn 2009.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullNIPCC.null.null.nullx4z.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullIPCC.null.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullx5z.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “2012.null1.null27.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn Allegre.null16.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullx6z.null.nullnonmarkingreturn 10.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ “*,.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,-.null./0.nullnonmarkingreturn “ “*,-./HadCRUT3.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *nonmarkingreturn,-.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *3.null.nullx7zI.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn HadCRUT4x8z.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullx9-10z.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullx11 z.nullnonmarkingreturn “19.nullnonmarkingreturn 20.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn nonmarkingreturn“ .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “20.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ *20.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ *“,-..nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “HadCRUT4.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,nonmarkingreturn-.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn NIO.null.null.nullO.null.nullnonmarkingreturn O.null.nullnonmarkingreturn N.null.nullnonmarkingreturn Odoi10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2013.05.012.nullnonmarkingreturn , .nullnonmarkingreturn, .nullnonmarkingreturn , .null. .nullnonmarkingreturn “ *1.null[J]. .nullnonmarkingreturn “, 2013, 9 5 383-385.nullnonmarkingreturn .null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .null9-XDA05090104.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null1.nullnonmarkingreturn.null1886.null1.nullnonmarkingreturn2005.null1.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “HadCRUT4.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn2.nullnonmarkingreturn HadCRUT4.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturnHadCRUT3.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn 1910.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “1940.nullnonmarkingreturn “1960.null.nullnonmarkingreturn 1990.nullnonmarkingreturn 1945.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .null.nullnonmarkingreturn “21.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn HadCRUT3.null21.null.nullnonmarkingreturn1.null10.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullx12-13z.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullHansen.nullnonmarkingreturnGISS.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn.null.nullx 14z.null.null21.nullnonmarkingreturn 10.nullnonmarkingreturn “HadCRUT3.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “GISS.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullHadCRUT3.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “nonmarkingreturn *.nullnonmarkingreturn.null.nullx 15z.nullHadCRUT4.null10.nullnonmarkingreturn “HadCRUT3.null.nullnonmarkingreturn GISS.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn NCDC.nullnonmarkingreturn “ “*,-.null.nullx16z.nullJMA.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullMorice.nullx8z.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn HadCRUT4.nullnonmarkingreturn “0.074.null/10a.null1901.null2010.nullnonmarkingreturn 0.169.null/10a.null1979.null2010.nullnonmarkingreturn 1901.null2010.nullHadCRUT4.nullnonmarkingreturn P.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullGISS.nullNCDC.nullJMA.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “1979.null2010.nullHadCRUT4.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “3842013.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null1 1886.null1.nullnonmarkingreturn2005.null1.nullHadCRUT3.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullHadCRUT4.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn 1961.null1990.nullnonmarkingreturn [8]Fig. 1 Monthly mean temperature anomalies in January 1886 and 2005 of HadCRUT3 top and HadCRUT4 bottom, relative to1961J1990 [8].null2 1850.null2010.nullHadCRUT3.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullHadCRUT4.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn 1961.null1990.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn 95.nullnonmarkingreturn “[8]Fig. 2 Global mean temperature anomalies of 1850J2010 ofHadCRUT3 blue and HadCRUT4 red, relative to 1961J1990,95 confidence intervals are shown by the shaded areas [8].null4.nullnonmarkingreturn “ HadCRUT4.nullnonmarkingreturn “1850.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,-./IPCC.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullAR4.nullx5z.nullnonmarkingreturn 14.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn1300.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .null.nullnonmarkingreturn1850.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ *0.5.null0.8.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *,2012.nullGeophysical Research Letters.nullnonmarkingreturn “Anderson.nullx17z.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “173.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn 1730.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullPI.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn “1901.null2000.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *Anderson.nullnonmarkingreturn nonmarkingreturn“nonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullPI.nullNCDC.nullnonmarkingreturn “ 1880.null1995.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “0.76.nullAnderson.nullnonmarkingreturnPI.nullHadCRUT4.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null0.77.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “PI.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturnPI.nullnonmarkingreturn1995.nullnonmarkingreturn.null.nullnonmarkingreturn PI.null1901.null1995.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn HadCRUT4.null1901.null1995.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn 3.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “HadCRUT4.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “HadCRUT4 1850.null2010.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn0.05.null/10a.null160.nullnonmarkingreturn 0.8.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “0.7.null0.8.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn3.null90.nullN90.nullW45.nullN90.nullS45.nullSEQ90.nullN45.nullN90.nullS45.nullSEQ180.null 0.null 90.nullE 180.null 90.nullW180.null 0.null 90.nullE 180.null90.nullW180.null 0.null 90.nullE 180.null 90.nullW180.null 0.null 90.nullE 180.null90.nullN45.nullN90.nullS45.nullSEQ90.nullN45.nullN90.nullS45.nullSEQJ10 J5 J3 J1 J0.5 J0.2 0 0.2 0.5 1 3 5 10HadCRUT3 1886.null1.null HadCRUT3 2005.null1.nullHadCRUT4 1886.null1.null HadCRUT4 2005.null1.null.null0.80.60.40.20J0.2J0.4J0.6J0.8.nullnonmarkingreturn /.nullHadCRUT4HadCRUT31860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 5.null385.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “ *1.null.null3 1730.null1995.nullnonmarkingreturn “ [17].nullnonmarkingreturn .null1850.null2010.nullHadCRUT4.nullnonmarkingreturn “[8].nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn 1901.null1995.nullnonmarkingreturn Fig. 3 Global mean temperature anomalies for 1730J1995reconstructed on the basis of proxy data[17]black, andobservations for 1850J2010 of HadCRUT4[8]red,relative to 1901J1995.nullnonmarkingreturn “1750.null1850.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .null100.nullnonmarkingreturn 0.2.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturnIPCC AR4.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn1750.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “nonmarkingreturn *1.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null *.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “2.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullx18z.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn 0.8.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn 1.2.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn 1.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn0.80.40J0.4J0.8J1.2.nullnonmarkingreturn /.nullPIHadCRUT4.nullnonmarkingreturn .null0.02.null/10a.nullnonmarkingreturn .null0.05.null/10a1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000.null[4]Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R. 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