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fàªNÅú ï Ê[¼ 11 ¼ 6 ú2015 N 11  PROGRESSUS INQUISITIONES DE MUTATIONE CLIMATISVol. 11 No. 6November 2015doi10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.06.008v8L , †¨ , Ü z] . ‡ pc,ŸâÏi ¶ [J]. ªNÅú ï Ê[ , 2015, 11 6 440-442Global Glaciers are Rapidly Melting‡ pc,ŸâÏi ¶2 cÀwѺ pe TÑÐÈ Ù2111953ÐT a T F ªÐÈ Ù211192 ‡ pc,_ ªNŦ úÌz1Èzºc,¦Ê ì 9 ÑÊ ªÜ ªNÅÄ,Z_Ò ‡¤Å8NÅÈ8c,¦Nű ¥–ZŸ¤ø¦ô [ Ý ì¦NÅÈ\ § Ì ï²ÿ¦4jѾ³zOÈ ªNŦú ïÐÈc,¦NÅtŸ w¦Øk25ªŸ ‡ pc, Î41 NŸâÏi ¶Üc,ª ¦ G\ Г̦[ȶ ‡ pøœ¦c, c‡È 2013 N IPCC¼õR àâÄ AR5Åô\1-2È 5ªŸ¦ ‡ pc,Ê ì9  Ê ýBº im mëÈ ¶ ”Û¦ WM W 1ô ‡ p 19òt vc,• ì \ 20032009 Nc,Ê •¦NÅ rÈ WW 1¥ŸÖ1 ‡ pc,•w 168331IÈ ì  726258 km22 c,•L ÐñÈw 30200IÈ ì Lw3 Þ ÜIÈ wº 132267 km2 3 20032009NŽ ¨t v”È ñ 18òt vc,Ê ýBæÈ®\® ™¯ G c G w‡t í 4 ¨ 3¾¼¯ ÷ ñÞ ÷ v ýBÈ ¶ Û W M  W 2ô¶LÊ5ª ¦ ‡ p 37ò– Jc, 19802014N Å 10 N Ý c,•NÅ\3ÈWW 2¥ŸÖ 1 Î35 N ‡ pc,âÏ ¶ÅÈ Å 10 Nc,•ü_ ¶Åv8L2-3È †¨2ÈÜ z]2ú\ Ö T 0‡Øw\ Ä 2013CBA01805Å  T F2 — TÑ  Â\ Ä 41305054Å—øÀ http//www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/æøw 2 c, ¶ÅÜI X GÏÈ é à 1980 1989 Nc, Ý æ 221 mmÈ8 20002009 Nc, Ý æ 726 mmÈ L Φ 5 NÄ 20102014 NÅc, Ý æ 836 mm c,¦ GÏi ¶ÈRR¤‡ pN q¦ZM3èć pc, ÄâÏi ¶IPCC AR5¸È W .c,T· Ë D ª „¦ ÝšW ýÈ QÒ Á¶ Ä 7ÈÄc, } ÄmëÄ Û W M Å\1  Ķ± ¥èć pc,NŦú ïȶuú ïè‡tc,¦NÅÈ é Ãè¯À ‡ pN qÈ ÆTT Fc,ôDj¦ 25 Ic, } 2020 2030 N ‡‡iÈ81850 N¿ºw¶ 150Ic,— Cïè ‡ p[Ý ì 7¦ ÙÐÈ J o ‡ pc,¦ EÈ IPCCAR5ô ç© CMIP5 U J oóÖ RCP ‡c _ æÈè¯À[N qc,Ê æ\ cñi ¶ÈÄ21X A ‡ p[ Ý ì¦ 7 r” W }ÒW 19712010 N¦5ªµ\1 ç© CMIP5¦ ‡ pw ؇[Í A UÄ AOGCMsÅ  ‡ pc, Uèć pc,[ Ý ì¦ E ÃW 3È jŸÖ 1 Àƒ¦ú ï ç©ƒ¦c, UÈ J o Ö ‡p ª UÑ 4 Ö ‡c _ æÈè ‡ p ÄN qÈ6 ú441v8L黅 ‡ pc,ŸâÏi ¶W 21980 2014 N Å 10 N ‡ p 37 ò– Jc, Ý •NÅÄÓ i ¶ÅTable 2 Global 37 reference glaciermass balance changes snowgain minus melt loss for 1980.2014W 1 ‡ p 19 òt vc,• ì \ 2003 2009 N Ý c,Ê •¦NÅ r[1-2]Table 1 Global glacier numbers and areas in 19 sub-regions and its total and their mass change rates for 2003.2009[1-2]v 231121507333187342138802901615179933144033920133930200228221400626011599430123274168331c,• c, ì  /km289267.014503.5103990.240600.787125.910988.633672.92833.751160.53425.62058.11125.664497.033862.021803.22554.729361.21160.5132267.4726258.3.50  17.14  3.33  4.27  4.38  7.10  2.5  2.2  0.11  4.2  1.2  0.1  0.26  12.26  12.26  12.4  1.29  100  1.6  10.259  282003 2009 Nc,Ê •r */Gt/a® ™¯ GG w ÆT‡G w‡cG w 3‡cí 4 ¨cœ¯‘;Ù,¯ ¦ -¼ñ- †¯‡cñÐ yÛ GíÐñ3ñÄÅ3ñÄëůÃ3¾¼¯ ÷ žŽ ¨3 Þ ñ 3  v‡ pÖ * „ ¦•µWVÖ Ý µ 95 ‘T·µI1980 1989 N1990 1999 N2000 2009 N2010 2014 Nc,•NÅ /mm.221.389.726.836ÖOWøÀ http//www.climate.gov/c , ÄâÏ ¶ÅÈŸ 2099 Nc, ¶Å[ Ý ì 7¦ Eü 46 mm \  2 ÀÛ ‡c _ æÄ RCP8.5Å È c, ¶Å[ Ý ì 7¦ ELÛ Ws200 mm\ ´2 Ù¸¦_Èc,Nű ¥–ZŸ¤ø¦NÅÑ[ Ý ìNÅ\ § ÌÑï²ÿ¦4 ÈzOŒØkĦ ‡ pc,NÅW 3© CMIP5 ¦ AOGCMs U ‡ pc, U J o 4Ö ‡c _ æÈèŸ 2099 NNÀ 2010 N ‡ pc,ă ” 3 ÞcñÜ·¦c,Å ¶Å[ Ý ì 7¦ E[1]Table 3 Projections of global glacier’s contribution to theglobal average sea level rise by global glacier models andAOGCMs of CMIP5 with 4 RCPs in 2099 relative to 2010excluding the glaciers surrounding the Antarctic ice sheet [1]RCP2.6Marzeion ª [3]Slangen ª [4]RadicDª [5]Giesen ª [6]5012563110RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5461416314559191651368017059108A1B6618310821493239mmøfàªNÅú ï Ê[442 2015 N4[­Ú — Îu Nc,Ê ì Ñ9 ¦NŦ5ª¶ ¡w¦ Ê È_c,¦ú ïÐ °j¹ “ 5 ƒ “è È ”Öc, ¦Ê È5ªn [FÄ ÃÅ5ª Ì5ªÅЦƒ “è Èè[FÐ ç© ‡ p U c, Uª[F¦ƒ “è ªÈ„uü¶ ÊC 5ÛIPCC. Climate change 2013 the physical science basis [M]. CambridgeCambridge University Press, 2013 1308– JÔE[1]Gardner A S, Moholdt G, Cogley J G. A reconciled estimate of glaciercontributions to sea level rise 2003 to 2009 [J]. Science, 2013, 340 852-857Marzeion B, Jarosch A H, Hofer M. Past and future sea-level changesfrom the surface mass balance of glaciers [J]. Cryosphere, 2012, 6 1295-1322Slangen A B A, van de Wal R S W. An assessment of uncertainties inusing volume-area modeling for computing the twenty-first century glaciercontribution to sea-level change [J]. Cryosphere, 2011, 5 673-686RadicDV, Bliss A, Beedlow A D, et al, Regional and global projections ofthe 21st century glacier mass changes in response to climate scenariosfrom global climate models [J]. Clim Dyn, 2013, 42 37-58. doi 10.1007/s00382-013-1719-7Giesen R H, Oerlemans J. Climate-model induced differences in the 21stcentury global and regional glacier contributions to sea-level rise [J]. ClimDyn, 2013, 41 3283-3300[2][4][3][5][6]¹W 2ÐT 19622012 N ÏNÅ * vÄ,™µIë . Àw— im u|pï,™ vNÅ u| Ï,™µ Ϫ•/ ò Ïpï Å2éÝ  Ïpï Ïr /m/s/10 a Ïpï i ÑÅ2éÝ  Ïpïi ÑÏr /m/s/10 aÝ  Ïpï,™µ/m/s/10 a Ïpï,™Ì™49.5163.6388452.634.80.040.0547.465.2.0.07.0.12.0.015.0.059ƒ ýBi ÑIIÀë . ÀÐЗ im u|IIIë 3m— imu|i у ýBIV 3²— im u|Vm— imu|VI  Ûñ Ï G u|ì  / ¤km2m—¾ 5 . Êã ÷ . Ù  Ýñ Ïpïƒ ýB vw—¾ 5 . À Ýñ . ÜsÛñ Ïpï i Ñ vI 1I 227.291.9357940.060.80.040.0560.039.2.0.14.0.05.0.070.0077Ê‹ AØ . Ï .Të . À ÷º Ïpï i Ñ v  .  [ . Ë . ÷ë÷œ Ïpïƒ ýB vII 1II 2i Ñ 9.054.2145942.978.00.040.0657.122.0.0.33.0.09.0.1710.02423 5 n 4 ÷º . Ï 3 . ü Ïpï i Ñ vŸ z . ë[ Ïpï vIII 1III 2 ƒ ýB98.256.7704971.471.40.050.0328.628.6.0.03.0.020.02820.02V 5ë‡ . 5 ÷º .  MÛñ Ïpï vV 5‡ ÷º . º, ªº . ™ ÷ v Ïpïƒ ýB vIV 1IV 2i Ñ 169.870.975937.377.80.040.0462.722.2.0.06.0.01.0.0240.0271Ž €‡ ÷º .  ö ÷ . ÏÛñ Ïpï i Ñ vŽ € 3‡ ÷º Ïpï vV 1V 2i у ýB73.279.2220 50.0 0.04100.050.0.0.11.0.07.0.112.0.013 Ûñë 3‡ Ïpï i Ñ v Ûñ‡ Ïpïƒ ýB vVI 1VI 2
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