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Transative Climate Finance A new approach for climate finance to achieve low-carbon resilient development in developing countries June 2020 / Washington, DCTransative Climate Finance A new approach for climate finance to achieve low-carbon resilient development in developing countries 2020 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 T elephone 202-473-1000 Internet www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of cutive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other ination shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax 202-522-2625; e-mail pubrightsworldbank.org. The World Bank wishes to acknowledge the contributions of Vivid Economics, Ltd, and the Climate Policy Initiative to this work. The work was led from the World Bank by Jonathan Coony and Klaus Oppermann under the guidance of Marc Sadler. Photography Shutterstock early warning technologies; monitoring, reporting and verification MRV ologies and technologies to measure emission reductions; models and tools for long-term scenario simulation and planning; and physical and transitional risk assessment tools. Understand and manage the political economy to ensure a just transition. Any transition from business-as-usual to a clean development trajectory will involve localized negative impacts on certain industries, workforces and regions. Welfare gains resulting 3 Strand, Jon. 2020. Transational Climate Finance Donors’ Willingness to Support Deep and Transational Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions in Lower-Income Countries. Policy Research Working Paper; No. 9251. Washington, D.C. World Bank Group. from cleaner development must be used to compensate for these losses. Use of climate finance to support this process, even when not directly achieving climate results, is essential for successful clean development. Differentiate support by income level and climate vulnerability. The poorest countries are both most vulnerable to and least responsible for global climate change. While this extends to many middle income countries, they have a different climate change profile. More can be done to refine the differentiation of climate finance to match countries’ specific needs and circumstances. This includes applying tiered conditionality for more advanced countries depending on their own efforts and orientation toward long-term strategies. Paired with enhanced donor coordination, such approaches can increase the impact of climate finance, in particular for mitigation. 3Transative Climate Finance A new approach for climate finance to achieve low-carbon resilient development in developing countries 4 The World Bank Group is undertaking analytical work to explore how international climate finance can more effectively assist developing countries to achieve low-carbon, climate resilient development. This work is separate from, but complementary to, parallel work streams on aligning MDB financing with the Paris Agreement. While that work looks at the entirety of MDB operations, this analysis focuses on the use of climate finance for wider catalyzation of overall financing for climate action in developing countries. It is a part of the World Bank Group 2025 Climate Targets and Actions and builds on the World Bank 2018 Guiding Framework for the Strategic Use of Climate Finance to Maximize Climate Action. The project is collaborative in nature, tapping sector expertise from the World Bank Group, other MDBs, the private sector, and governments. Two invitation-only events in Singapore and London in May 2019 and October 2019, respectively, brought these stakeholders together to test hypotheses and gather additional ination. The events underscored the need to deploy finite public climate finance more transatively and presented the many ways this is being pursued. This synthesis report builds on two background papers Transative Climate Finance Options to enhance international climate finance flows for transative climate action in partnership with Vivid Economics and the Climate Policy Initiative, and Transational Climate Finance Willingness to Pay among Donors to Support Deep and Transational Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions in Lower-Income Countries led by the Development Research Group of the World Bank. All analysis and findings herein are the responsibility of the Climate Change Group of the World Bank. This work is intended to contribute to the ongoing debate on improving the effectiveness of different types of climate finance. The primary audience for this report comprises the donor community, DFIs, and dedicated climate finance funds. Findings and recommendations for further action may also be useful to other implementing agencies and recipient countries. REPORT CONTEXTTransative Climate Finance A new approach for climate finance to achieve low-carbon resilient development in developing countries 5 Global greenhouse gas GHG emissions continue to rise, threatening major economic and environmental harm. Despite important developments of the past decadeincluding greater public attention to climate change, dire warnings from scientists, the passage of the Paris Agreement, advances in clean technologies, and increasing climate finance flowsglobal GHG emissions continued to grow driven by economic development in non-OECD countries as shown in Figure 1. Barring substantive changes in how climate change is addressed, GHG concentrations will continue to rise, temperatures will exceed targeted 1.5 and 2-degree Celsius limits, and climate impacts will be increasingly felt, with the poor and disenfranchised disproportionately affected. Figure 1 CO2 Emission Growth, 1995-2018 wth Source Fossil CO2 and GHG emissions of all world countries - 2019 Report, EUR 29849 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2019; World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW-CARBON, RESILIENT DEVELOPMENTTransative Climate Finance A new approach for climate finance to achieve low-carbon resilient development in developing countries 6 As part of global climate change efforts, developing countries 4 have an opportunity for low-carbon, resilient development that maximizes economic growth and modernization. Despite emitting less on a historical basis, the current size and growth rates of developing country emissions mean they must be part of the global climate solution. Fortunately, a pathway for low-carbon, climate resilient development also offers modern, efficient technology, growth in expanding sectors, job creation, and investment. A successful transition to cleaner development pathways must also factor in the winners and losers through this process to ensure a just transition. In a full climate transition, workers in carbon-intensive industries and other “brown” sectors may face job displacement as regions dependent on fossil fuels experience dampening impacts on local economies. Government and international stakeholders must monitor people and regions negatively affected by a move to climate and clean energy modalities, and put in place programs to mitigate related damages and provide opportunities in the cleaner economy. 4 For purposes of this analysis, developing countries refers to non-Annex I countries per UNFCCC classification.Transative Climate Finance A new approach for climate finance to achieve low-carbon resilient development in developing countries 7 The scope and scale of changes needed for economies and societies to achieve low-carbon resilient development are immense, requiring substantive transation of the involved economies. The climate change mitigation and adaptation actions required permeate nearly every aspect of economy and society see Table 1. This relates both to sectors with direct impact on climate change e.g., energy and agriculture as well as those with second-order but no less profound impacts e.g., urban planning and trade. Table 1 Climate change demands action across socioeconomic sectors Area Mitigation priorities Adaptation priorities Energy System Transitions Increase low-carbon energy Decrease shares of fossil fuels without carbon capture and storage Scale up energy efficiency of generation, transmission, distribution, and storage Strengthen existing power infrastructure against extreme weather and temperatures Improve water management within the energy system Land and Ecosystem Transitions Support substantial forest preservation, reforestation, and afforestation Reduce food waste and increase efficiency of food production Encourage dietary shifts to reduce emissions and land-use pressures Increase efficiency of irrigation through water-efficient practices Establish efficient livestock systems and adopt climate- smart crops and crop management approaches Urban and Infrastructure System Transitions Implement technology-focused building measures including increased energy efficiency and fuel-switching Promote shifts towards low- and zero- emission mass transit Promote smart cities through digital transation and automation Develop sustainable water management systems, support wastewater recycling and storm water diversion Industrial System Transition Substantially reduce the emissions intensity of industrial production through energy efficiency, carbon capture and storage, and other technologies Promote product substitution and circular production systems Prioritize infrastructure resilience and water management Invest in technological innovation to improve efficiency of resource use Source Vivid Economics, based on IPCC.2018a. Global Warming of 1.5C. An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5C above Pre-Industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change. Transation of this scale demands a high volume of investment. Cost estimates vary based on sectors covered, data, and ologies used 5 , but there is broad consensus that investment needs for low-carbon, resilient transition in developing countries is measured in the trillions of dollars not billions and that current financial flows fall far short. Box 1 sheds more light on the resource requirements to address climate change mitigation and adaptation. 5 For more detail, see the background research to this report in Vivid Economics. 2020. Transative Climate Finance Options to enhance international climate finance flows for transative climate action. Box 2 Understanding and assessing transational change A range of approaches and frameworks have been developed to identify and assess how climate finance can support transational change. These can be helpful for thinking about how different levers can .support transational change CIF has developed a particularly useful framework for understanding transational change across four dimensions a, building on definitions used by the World Bank’s Independent uation Group.b These dimensions can be assessed using indicative, contextualized signals of transational change, which demonstrate progress toward transation within each dimension at early, interim, and more advanced stages.c The GCF approach to identifying paradigm shift equivalent to transational change for potential investments considers the degree to which they can achieve sustainable develop- ment impact beyond a one-off project or program investment through replicability and scalability. This includes potential for knowledge and learning, contribution to the creation of an enabling environment, contribution to the regulatory framework and policies, and contribution to climate goals consistent with national strategies and plans.d The GEF similarly uates transational change against a framework that includes the relevance of investment, the level of ambition and focus within an investment, the depth and scale of outcomes, and the sustainability of outcomes including financial, economic, environmental, social, and political sustainability.e a Itad. 2019. uation of Transational Change in the Climate Investment Funds b World Bank IEG. 2016. Supporting Transational Change for Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity Lessons from World Bank Group Experience c CIF more than 95 percent was delivered through loans and grants; and the regional allocation reflected general development needs. 11 8 For more details on this literature findings, see Vivid Economics. 2020. Transative Climate Finance Options to enhance international climate finance flows for transative climate action. 9 New Climate Economy. 2016. The sustainable infrastructure imperative Financing for better growth and development. Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. 10 CPI. 2019. Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2019. London CPI. 11 Vivid Economics. 2020. Transative Climate Finance Options to enhance international climate finance flows for transative climate action.Transative Climate Finance A new approach for climate finance to achieve low-carbon resilient development in developing countries 9 To understand better how to improve the effectiveness of climate finance, this report distinguishes four different types of climate finance. Dedicated climate finance This refers to funding provided by mostly OECD governments at concessional or grant terms with the explicit goal to achieve low-carbon resilient development. Examples include funding channeled through the Climate Investment Funds CIF, Global Environment Facility GEF, Green Climate Fund GC
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