全球碳预算报告2016

Global Carbon BudgetPublished on 14 November 20162016PowerPoint version 1.0AcknowledgementsThe work presented here has been possible thanks to the enormous observational and modelling efforts of the institutions and networks belowAtmospheric CO2 datasets NOAA/ESRL Dlugokencky and Tans 2016 Scripps Keeling et al. 1976Fossil Fuels and IndustryCDIAC Boden et al. 2016USGS, 2016UNFCCC, 2016BP, 2016Consumption Emission Peters et al. 2011GTAP Narayanan et al. 2015 Land-Use ChangeHoughton et al. 2012GFED4 van der Werf et al. 2010FAO-FRA and FAOSTATHYDE Klein Goldewijk et al. 2011Atmospheric inversionsCarbonTracker Peters et al. 2010Jena CarboScope Rödenbeck et al. 2003MACC Chlier et al. 2005Land modelsCABLE-POP | CLASS-CTEM | CLM4.5BGC | DLEM | ISAM | JSBACH | JULES | LPJ-GUESS | LPJ | LPX | OCNv2 | ORCHIDEE | SDGVM | VISIT CRU Harris et al. 2014Ocean modelsNEMO-PlankTOM5 | NEMO-PISCES IPSL | CCSM-BEC | MICOM-HAMMOC | NEMO-PISCES CNRM | CSIRO | MITgem-REcoM2Ocean Data productsJena CarboScope Rödenbeck et al. 2014Landschützer et al. 2015SOCATv4 Bakker et al. 2016Full references provided in Le Quéré et al 2016C Le Quéré UK | RM Andrew Norway | GP Peters Norway | JG Canadell Australia | S Sitch UK | JI Korsbakken Norway | P Ciais France | P Friedlingstein UK | AC Manning UKTA Boden USA | PP Tans USA | RA Houghton USA | RF Keeling USAS Alin USA | OD Andrews UK | P Anthoni USA | L Barbero USA | L Bopp France | F Chlier France | LP ChiniUSA | K Currie New Zealand | C Delire France | SC Doney USA | S Fuss Germany | T Gkritzalis Belgium | I Harris UK | J Hauck Germany | V Haverd Australia | M Hoppema Germany | R Jackson USA | K Jain USA | E Kato Japan| K Klein Goldewijk Netherlands | A Körtzinger Germany | P Landschützer Switzerland | N Lefèvre France | A Lenton Australia | S Lienert Switzerland | D Lombardozzi USA | JR Melton Canada | N Metzl France | F MilleroUSA | PMS Monteiro South Africa | DR Munro USA | JEMS Nabel Germany | S-I Nakaoka Japan | N Nakicenovic Austria | K O Brien USA | A Olsen Norway | AM Omar Norway | T Ono Japan | D Pierrot USA | B Poulter USA | C Rödenbeck Germany | J Rogelj Austria | J Salisbury USA | U Schuster UK | J Schwinger Norway | R SéférianFrance | I Skjelvan Norway | BD Stocker UK | AJ Sutton USA | T Takahashi USA | H Tian USA | B Tilbrook Australia | IT van der Laan-Luijkx Netherlands | GR van der Werf Netherlands | N Viovy France | AP Walker USA| AJ Wiltshire UK | S Zaehle Germany Atlas Science Committee | Atlas Team Members at LSCE, France not already mentioned aboveA Peregon | P Peylin | P Brockmann | V Maigné | P Evano | C NanginiCommunications TeamA Minns | O Gaffney | B WoolliamsContributors 74 people | 57 organisations | 14 countriesMore ination, data sources and data files www.globalcarbonproject.orgContact c.lequereuea.ac.ukMore ination, data sources and data files www.globalcarbonatlas.orgfunded in part by BNP Paribas FoundationContact philippe.ciaislsce.ipsl.frData accessAll the data is shown in billion tonnes CO2 GtCO21 Gigatonne Gt 1 billion tonnes 11015g 1 Petagram Pg1 kg carbon C 3.664 kg carbon dioxide CO21 GtC 3.664 billion tonnes CO2 3.664 GtCO2Figures in units of GtC and GtCO2 are available from http//globalcarbonbudget.org/carbonbudget DisclaimerThe Global Carbon Budget and the ination presented here are intended for those interested in learning about the carbon cycle, and how human activities are changing it. The ination contained herein is provided as a public service, with the understanding that the Global Carbon Project team make no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the ination.Anthropogenic perturbation of the global carbon cyclePerturbation of the global carbon cycle caused by anthropogenic activities,averaged globally for the decade 2006–2015 GtCO2/yrSource CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Fossil Fuel and Industry EmissionsGlobal emissions from fossil fuel and industry 36.3 ±1.8 GtCO2 in 2015, 63 over 1990 Projection for 2016 36.4 ±2.3 GtCO2, 0.2 higher than 2015Estimates for 2014 and 2015 are preliminary. Growth rate is adjusted for the leap year in 2016.Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Uncertainty is ±5 for one standard deviation IPCC “likely” rangeEmissions from fossil fuel use and industryObserved emissions and emissions scenariosThe emission pledges to the Paris Agreement avoid the worst effects of climate change 4-5°C Most studies suggest the pledges give a likely temperature increase of about 3°C in 2100The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report assessed about 1200 scenarios with detailed climate modelling on four Representative Concentration Pathways RCPsSource Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; IIASA AR5 Scenario Database; Global Carbon Budget 2016New generation of scenariosIn the lead up to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report new scenarios have been developed to more systematically explore key uncertainties in future socioeconomic developmentsFive Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSPs have been developed to explore challenges to adaptation and mitigation. Shared Policy Assumptions SPAs are used to achieve target forcing levels W/m2.Source Riahi et al. 2016; IIASA SSP Database; Global Carbon Budget 2016Top emitters fossil fuels and industry absoluteThe top four emitters in 2015 covered 59 of global emissionsChina 29, United States 15, EU28 10, India 6Bunker fuels are used for international transport is 3.1 of global emissions.Statistical differences between the global estimates and sum of national totals are 1.2 of global emissions.Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Top emitters fossil fuels and industry per capitaCountries have a broad range of per capita emissions reflecting their national circumstancesSource CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Top emitters fossil fuels and industry per dollarEmissions per unit economic output emissions intensities generally decline over timeChina’s intensity is declining rapidly, but is still much higher than the world averageGDP are measured in purchasing power parity PPP terms in 2005 dollars.Source CDIAC; IEA 2015 GDP to 2013, IMF 2016 growth rates to 2015; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Alternative rankings of countriesDepending on perspective, the significance of individual countries changesGDP Gross Domestic Product in Market Exchange Rates MER and Purchasing Power Parity PPPSource CDIAC; United Nations; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Emissions from coal, oil, gas, cementShare of global emissions in 2015coal 41, oil 34, gas 19, cement 6, flaring 1, not shownSource CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Energy consumption by energy typeEnergy consumption by fuel source from 2000 to 2015, with growth rates indicated for the more recent period of 2010 to 2015Source BP 2016; Jackson et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2016Fossil fuel and cement emissions growthThe biggest changes in emissions were from a decline in coal and an increase in oilSource CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Fossil fuel and cement emissions growthEmissions in the US, China and Russia declinedEmissions in India and all other countries combined increasedFigure shows the top four countries contributing to emissions changes in 2015Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Breakdown of global emissions by countryEmissions from Annex B countries have slightly declined since 1990Emissions from non-Annex B countries have increased rapidly in the last decadeAnnex B countries had emission commitments in the Kyoto Protocol USA did not ratify, Canada withdrewSource CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Historical cumulative emissions by countryCumulative emissions from fossil-fuel and cement were distributed 1870–2015USA 26, EU28 23, China 13, Russia 7, Japan 4 and India 3Cumulative emissions 1990–2015 were distributed China 21, USA 20, EU28 14, Russia 6, India/Japan 4‘All others’ includes all other countries along with bunker fuels and statistical differencesSource CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Historical cumulative emissions by continentCumulative emissions from fossil-fuel and cement 1870–2015North America and Europe responsible for most cumulative emissions, but Asia growing fastThe figure excludes bunker fuels and statistical differencesSource CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Carbon intensity of economic activityGlobal emissions growth has generally recovered quickly from previous financial crisesIt is unclear if the recent slowdown in global emissions is related to the Global Financial CrisisEconomic activity is measured in Purchasing Power Parity Source CDIAC; Peters et al 2012; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Emissions intensity per unit economic activityThe 10 largest economies have a wide range of emissions intensity of economic productionEmission intensity CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industry divided by Gross Domestic ProductSource Global Carbon Budget 2016Emissions per capitaThe 10 most populous countries span a wide range of development and emissions per personEmission per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industry divided by populationSource Global Carbon Budget 2016Emissions 2015Region/Country Per capita Total Growth 2014-15tCO2 per person GtCO2 GtCO2 Global with bunkers 4.9 36.26 100 0.021 0.0Developed Countries Annex BAnnex B 10.6 12.97 35.8 -0.228 -1.7USA 16.8 5.42 14.9 -0.141 -2.6EU28 7.0 3.51 9.7 0.048 1.4Russia 11.3 1.62 4.5 -0.055 -3.3Japan 9.8 1.24 3.4 -0.028 -2.2Canada 12.9 0.46 1.3 -0.014 -3.0Developing Countries Non-Annex BNon-Annex B 3.5 21.72 59.9 0.184 0.9China 7.5 10.36 28.6 -0.077 -0.7India 1.7 2.27 6.3 0.113 5.2Iran 8.2 0.65 1.8 0.010 1.5Saudi Arabia 19.0 0.60 1.7 0.026 4.4South Korea 11.8 0.59 1.6 0.001 0.2International BunkersAviation and Shipping - 1.57 4.3 0.065 4.3Key statisticsSource CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Consumption-based EmissionsConsumption–based emissions allocate emissions to the location that goods and services are consumedConsumption-based emissions Production/Territorial-based emissions minus emissions embodied in exports plus the emissions embodied in importsConsumption-based emissions carbon footprintAllocating emissions to the consumption of products provides an alternative perspectiveUSA and EU28 are net importers of embodied emissions, China and India are net exportersConsumption-based emissions are calculated by adjusting the standard production-based emissions to account for international tradeSource Peters et al 2011; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Project 2016Consumption-based emissionsTransfers of emissions embodied in trade from non-Annex B countries to Annex B countries grew at about 19 per year between 1990 and 2007, but have since declined at nearly 4 per year.Annex B countries were used in the Kyoto Protocol, but this distinction is less relevant in the Paris AgreementSource CDIAC; Peters et al 2011; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Major flows from production to consumptionFlows from location of generation of emissions to location of consumption of goods and servicesValues for 2011. EU is treated as one region. Units MtCO2Source Peters et al 2012Major flows from extraction to consumptionFlows from location of fossil fuel extraction to location of consumption of goods and servicesValues for 2011. EU is treated as one region. Units MtCO2Source Andrew et al 2013Land-use Change EmissionsLand-use change emissionsEmissions in the 2000s were lower than earlier decades, but highly uncertainHigher emissions in 2015 are linked to increased fires during dry El Niño conditions in AsiaThree different estimation s have been used, indicated here by different shades of greyLand-use change also emits CH4 and N2O which are not shown hereSource Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Indonesian firesIndonesian firesTotal global emissionsTotal global emissions 41.9 ±2.8 GtCO2 in 2015, 49 over 1990Percentage land-use change 36 in 1960, 9 averaged 2006-2015Three different s have been used to estimate land-use change emissions, indicated here by different shades of greySource CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Total global emissions by sourceLand-use change was the dominant source of annual CO2 emissions until around 1950Others Emissions from cement production and gas flaringSource CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Historical cumulative emissions by sourceLand-use change represents about 26 of cumulative emissions over 1870–2015, coal 35, oil 26, gas 10, and others 3 Others Emissions from cement production and gas flaringSource CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Closing the Global Carbon Budget3111.6 GtCO2/yrFate of anthropogenic CO2 emissions 2006-2015Source CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016269.7 GtCO2/yr34.1 GtCO2/yr9193.5 GtCO2/yr16.4 GtCO2/yr44Sources SinksGlobal carbon budgetThe carbon sources from fossil fuels, industry, and land use change emissions are balanced by the atmosphere and carbon sinks on land and in the ocean Source CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Changes in the budget over timeThe sinks have continued to grow with increasing emissions, but climate change will affect carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate the increase of CO2 in the atmosphereSource CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Partitioning of total CO2 emissionsAtmospheric CO2 growth rate was a record high in 2015 in spite of no growth in fossil fuel and industry emissions because of a weaker CO2 sink on land from hot NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016Atmospheric concentrationThe atmospheric concentration growth rate has shown a steady increaseThe high growth in 1987, 1998, 2015 reflects a strong El Niño, which we