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Global Carbon Budget,Published on 5 December 2018,2018,PowerPoint version 1.0 released 5 December 2018,Acknowledgements,The work presented here has been possible thanks to the enormous observational and modelling efforts of the institutions and networks below,Atmospheric CO2 datasets NOAA/ESRL Dlugokencky and Tans 2018 Scripps Keeling et al. 1976Fossil Fuels and Industry CDIAC Boden et al. 2017 Andrew, 2018 UNFCCC, 2018 BP, 2018Consumption Emissions Peters et al. 2011 GTAP Narayanan et al. 2015 Land-Use Change Houghton and Nassikas 2017 Hansis et al. 2015 GFED4 van der Werf et al. 2017 FAO-FRA and FAOSTAT HYDE Klein Goldewijk et al. 2017 LUH2 Hurtt et al. in prep,Atmospheric inversions CarbonTracker Europe van der Laan-Luijkx et al. 2017 Jena CarboScope Rödenbeck et al. 2003 CAMS Chlier et al. 2005 MIROC Saeki and Patra, 2017 Land models CABLE-POP | CLASS-CTEM | CLM5.0BGC | DLEM | ISAM | JSBACH | JULES | LPJ-GUESS | LPJ | LPX-Bern | OCN | ORCHIDEE-Trunk | ORCHIDEE-CNP | SDGVM | SURFEXv8 | VISIT CRU Harris et al. 2014 JRA-55Ocean models CCSM-BEC | MICOM-HAMOCC NorESM-OC | MITgem-REcoM2 | MPIOM-HAMOCC | NEMO-PISCES CNRM | NEMO-PISCES IPSL | NEMO-PlankTOM5 pCO2-based ocean flux products Jena CarboScope Rödenbeck et al. 2014 Landschützer et al. 2016 SOCATv6 Bakker et al. 2016,Full references provided in Le Quéré et al 2018,C Le Quéré UK | RM Andrew Norway | P Friedlingstein UK | S Sitch UK | J Hauck Germany J Pongratz Germany | GP Peters Norway | RB Jackson USA | JG Canadell AustraliaAlmut Arneth Germany | Vivek K. Arora Canada | Leticia Barbero USA | Ana Bastos Germany | Laurent Bopp France | Frédéric Chlier France | Louise P. Chini USA | Philippe Ciais France | Scott C. Doney USA | Thanos Gkritzalis Belgium | Daniel S. Goll USA | Ian Harris UK | Vanessa Haverd Australia | Forrest M. Hoffman USA | Mario Hoppema Germany | Richard A. Houghton USA | George Hurtt USA | Tatiana Ilyina Germany | Atul K. Jain USA | Truls Johannessen Norway | Chris D. Jones UK | Etsushi Kato Japan | Ralph F. Keeling USA | Kees Klein Goldewijk The Netherlands | Jan Ivar Korsbakken Norway | Peter Landschützer Germany | Nathalie Lefèvre France | Sebastian Lienert Switzerland | Zhu Liu UK China | Danica Lombardozzi USA | Nicolas Metzl France | David R. Munro USA | Julia E. M. S. Nabel Germany | Shin-ichiro Nakaoka Japan | Craig Neill Australia | Are Olsen Norway | Tsueno Ono Japan | Prabir Patra Japan | Anna Peregon France | Wouter Peters The Netherlands | Philippe Peylin France | Benjamin Pfeil Norway | Penelope Pickers UK | Denis Pierrot USA | Benjamin Poulter USA | Gregor Rehder Germany | Laure Resplandy USA | Eddy Robertson UK | Matthias Rocher France | Christian Rödenbeck Germany | Ute Schuster UK | Jörg Schwinger Norway | Roland Séférian France | Ingunn Skjelvan Norway | Tobias Steinhoff Germany | Adrienne Sutton USA | Pieter P. Tans USA | Hanqin Tian USA | Bronte Tilbrook Australia | Francesco N. Tubiello Italy | Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx The Netherlands | Guido R. van der Werf The Netherlands | Nicolas Viovy France | Anthony P. Walker USA | Andrew J. Wiltshire UK | Rebecca Wright UK | Sönke Zaehle Germany | Bo Zheng FranceAtlas Team Members at LSCE, France P Ciais | A Peregon | P Peylin | P Brockmann | P Bousquet | C NanginiCommunications Team A Scrutton | N Hawtin | A Minns | K Mansell European Climate Foundation,Contributors 76 people | 53 organisations | 13 countries,Publications,https/doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf303,https// ination, data sources and data files http//www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget Contact Pep.Canadellcsiro.au,More ination, data sources and data files www.globalcarbonatlas.org co-funded in part by BNP Paribas Foundation Contact philippe.ciaislsce.ipsl.fr,Data Access and Additional Resources,Global Carbon Budget,Global Carbon Atlas,All the data is shown in billion tonnes CO2 GtCO21 Gigatonne Gt 1 billion tonnes 11015g 1 Petagram Pg1 kg carbon C 3.664 kg carbon dioxide CO21 GtC 3.664 billion tonnes CO2 3.664 GtCO2Figures in units of GtC and GtCO2 are available from http//globalcarbonbudget.org/carbonbudget Most figures in this presentation are available for download as PNG files from along with the data required to produce them.Disclaimer The Global Carbon Budget and the ination presented here are intended for those interested in learning about the carbon cycle, and how human activities are changing it. The ination contained herein is provided as a public service, with the understanding that the Global Carbon Project team make no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the ination.,Anthropogenic perturbation of the global carbon cycle,Perturbation of the global carbon cycle caused by anthropogenic activities, averaged globally for the decade 2008–2017 GtCO2/yr,The budget imbalance is the difference between the estimated emissions and sinks. Source CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Le Quéré et al 2018; Ciais et al. 2013; Global Carbon Budget 2018,,Fossil CO2 Emissions,from fossil fuel use and industry,Global fossil CO2 emissions 36.2 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2017, 63 over 1990 Projection for 2018 37.1 ± 2 GtCO2, 2.7 higher than 2017 range 1.8 to 3.7,Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary; 2018 is a projection based on partial data. Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,,Global Fossil CO2 Emissions,Uncertainty is ±5 for one standard deviation IPCC “likely” range,Global Fossil CO2 Emissions,Global fossil CO2 emissions have risen steadily over the last decades. The peak in global emissions is not yet in sight.,Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary ; 2018 is a projection based on partial data. Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Emissions Projections for 2018,Global fossil CO2 emissions are projected to rise by 2.7 in 2018 [range 1.8 to 3.7] The global growth is driven by the underlying changes at the country level.,Source CDIAC; Jackson et al 2018; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Top emitters Fossil CO2 emissions,The top four emitters in 2017 covered 58 of global emissions China 27, United States 15, EU28 10, India 7,Bunker fuels, used for international transport, are 3.2 of global emissions. Statistical differences between the global estimates and sum of national totals are 0.7 of global emissions. Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Top emitters Fossil CO2 Emissions per capita,Countries have a broad range of per capita emissions reflecting their national circumstances,Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Top emitters Fossil CO2 Emission Intensity,Emission intensity emission per unit economic output generally declines over time. In many countries, these declines are insufficient to overcome economic growth.,GDP is measured in purchasing power parity PPP terms in 2010 US dollars. Source CDIAC; IEA 2017 GDP to 2015, IMF 2018 growth rates to 2017; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Alternative rankings of countries,The responsibility of individual countries depends on perspective. Bars indicate fossil CO2 emissions, population, and GDP.,GDP Gross Domestic Product in Market Exchange Rates MER and Purchasing Power Parity PPP Source CDIAC; United Nations; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Fossil CO2 emissions growth 2016–2017,Emissions in the China, India, and Turkey increased most in 2017 Emissions in USA declined, while all other countries combined increased,Figure shows the top four countries contributing to emissions changes in 2017 Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Fossil CO2 emissions growth 2018 projection,Emissions in China, India, and the US are expected to increase in 2018, while emissions in the EU28 are expected to decline, and all other countries combined will most likely increase,Our projection considers China, USA, EU28, and India independently, and the Others as an aggregated “Rest of World” Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Breakdown of global fossil CO2 emissions by country,Emissions in OECD countries have increased by 5 since 1990, while those in non-OECD countries have more than doubled,Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Historical cumulative fossil CO2 emissions by country,Cumulative fossil CO2 emissions were distributed 1870–2017 USA 25, EU28 22, China 13, Russia 7, Japan 4 and India 3,Cumulative emissions 1990–2017 were distributed China 20, USA 20, EU28 14, Russia 6, India 5, Japan 4 ‘All others’ includes all other countries along with bunker fuels and statistical differences Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Fossil CO2 emissions by continent,Asia dominates global fossil CO2 emissions, while emissions in North America are of similar size to those in Europe, and the Middle East is growing rapidly.,Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Fossil CO2 emissions by continent per capita,Oceania and North America have the highest per capita emissions, while the Middle East has recently overtaken Europe. Africa has by far the lowest emissions per capita.,The global average was 4.8 tonnes per capita in 2017. Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Historical cumulative emissions by continent,Cumulative fossil CO2 emissions 1870–2017. North America and Europe have contributed the most cumulative emissions, but Asia is growing fast,The figure excludes bunker fuels and statistical differences Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Fossil CO2 emission intensity,Global CO2 emissions growth has generally resumed quickly from financial crises. Emission intensity has steadily declined but not sufficiently to offset economic growth.,Economic activity is measured in purchasing power parity PPP terms in 2010 US dollars. Source CDIAC; Peters et al 2012; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Kaya decomposition,The Kaya decomposition illustrates that relative decoupling of economic growth from CO2 emissions is driven by improved energy intensity Energy/GWP,GWP Gross World Product economic activity Energy is Primary Energy from BP statistics using the substitution accounting Source Jackson et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Fossil CO2 emission intensity,The 10 largest economies have a wide range of emission intensity of economic activity,Emission intensity Fossil CO2 emissions divided by Gross Domestic Product GDP Source Global Carbon Budget 2018,Fossil CO2 Emissions per capita,The 10 most populous countries span a wide range of development and emissions per capita,Emission per capita Fossil CO2 emissions divided by population Source Global Carbon Budget 2018,Key statistics,Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,,Fossil CO2 Emissions by source,from fossil fuel use and industry,Fossil CO2 Emissions by source,Share of global fossil CO2 emissions in 2017 coal 40, oil 35, gas 20, cement 4, flaring 1, not shown,Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Fossil CO2 Emissions by source,Emissions by category from 2000 to 2017, with growth rates indicated for the more recent period of 2012 to 2017,Source CDIAC; Jackson et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2017,Energy use by source,Energy consumption by fuel source from 2000 to 2017, with growth rates indicated for the more recent period of 2012 to 2017,This figure shows “primary energy” using the BP substitution non-fossil sources are scaled up by an assumed fossil efficiency of 0.38 Source BP 2018; Jackson et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Fossil CO2 Emissions growth by source,All fossil fuels contributed to the growth in fossil CO2 emissions in 2017,Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,,Fossil CO2 Emission Projections 2018,from fossil fuel use and industry,Fossil CO2 Emissions in China,China’s emissions are dominated by coal use, with strong and sustained growth in oil gas The recent declines in coal emissions may soon be undone if the return growth persists,Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Fossil CO2 Emissions in USA,USA CO2 emissions have declined since 2007, driven by coal being displaced by gas, solar, wind. Oil use has returned to growth. Emissions growth in 2018 is driven partly by weather.,Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Fossil CO2 Emissions in the European Union EU28,Emissions in the EU28 declined steadily from 2008 the Global Financial Crisis to 2014, but oil and gas emissions are growing again. A small decline is expected in 2018.,Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Fossil CO2 Emissions in India,India’s emissions are growing strongly along with rapid growth in economic activity. Although India is rapidly deploying solar wind power, coal continues to grow very strongly.,Source CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,,Emission scenarios,,Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSPs,The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSPs are a set of five socioeconomic narratives that are used by Integrated Assessment Models to estimate potential future emission pathways,Marker Scenarios are in bold. Net emissions include those from land-use change and bioenergy with CCS. Source Riahi et al. 2016; Rogelj et al. 2018; IIASA SSP Database; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSPs,The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSPs lead to a broad range in baselines grey, with more aggressive mitigation leading to lower temperature outcomes grouped by colours,This set of quantified SSPs are based on the output of six Integrated Assessment Models AIM/CGE, GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, REMIND, WITCH. Net emissions include those from land-use change and bioenergy with CCS. Source Riahi et al. 2016; Rogelj et al. 2018; IIASA SSP Database; IAMC; Global Carbon Budget 2018,The IPCC Special Report on “Global Warming of 1.5°C”,Net emissions include those from land-use change and bioenergy with CCS. Source Huppmann et al 2018; IAMC 1.5C Scenario Database; IPCC SR15; Global Carbon Budget 2018,The IPCC Special Report on “Global Warming of 1.5°C” presented new scenarios 1.5°C scenarios require halving emissions by 2030, net-zero by 2050, and negative thereafter,,Nature commentary,,Rising pressures,CO2 emissions are growing after pausing for a few years. Clean energy sources are beginning to replace fossil fuels, as their costs become more competitive.,Source Figueres et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018,Energy use by source,Renewable energy is growing exponentially, but this growth has so far been too low to offset the growth in fossil energy consumption.,
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