资源描述：
Including Forestry in an Emissions Trading Scheme Lessons from New Zealand Thomas Carver, Patrick Dawson, and Suzi Kerr Motu Working Paper 17-11 Motu Economic and Public Policy Research July 2017 Including Forestry in an Emissions Trading Scheme Lessons from New Zealand ii Document ination Author contact details Suzi Kerr Motu Economic and Public Policy Research suzi.kerrmotu.org.nz Thomas Carver Patrick Dawson Acknowledgements We would like to thank the Aotearoa Foundation for its funding of the Low-Emission Future internship. We also thank OMF for providing us with carbon market data. We further appreciate and thank those who contributed interviews and other towards this project Nigel Brunel, Ollie Belton, Steven Cox, Blair Dickie, Peter Gorman, Arthur Grimes, Denis Hocking, Geoff Keey, Catherine Leining, Peter Lough, Dave Maré, David Rhodes, Kate Ryan, Nigel Searles, Joanna Silver, Cath Wallace, and Peter Weir. Disclaimer All opinions are our own and we are responsible for any errors or omissions. Motu Economic and Public Policy Research PO Box 24390 Wellington New Zealand infomotu.org.nz www.motu.org.nz 64 4 9394250 © 2017 Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust and the authors. Short extracts, not exceeding two paragraphs, may be quoted provided clear attribution is given. Motu Working Papers are research materials circulated by their authors for purposes of ination and discussion. They have not necessarily undergone al peer review or editorial treatment. ISSN 1176-2667 Print, ISSN 1177- 9047 Online. Including Forestry in an Emissions Trading Scheme Lessons from New Zealand iii Abstract New Zealand is the first, and still the only, country to include forest landowners as full and, in some cases, mandatory participants in a greenhouse gas GHG emissions trading scheme ETS, the NZ ETS. Carbon sequestration by forestry continues to be an important part of New Ze policy changes to the NZ ETS since 2008 that directly affect forestry; assesses the effectiveness of the scheme; explores who is benefiting from it; and outlines issues facing forestry in the NZ ETS moving forward. We find that forest owners have responded to the financial incentives from the NZ ETS in a rational way. Both afforestation and deforestation decisions appear to have been influenced by the emissions price and/or expectations about the emissions price in the future. However, the scheme has been beset by challenges. The collapse in the global carbon price and, associated with this, the proliferation of international Kyoto credits of questionable environment from international markets until 2015, greatly reduced the price signal for forestry from the NZ ETS from 2012 to 2015. A weak price signal, coupled with ongoing policy uncertainty surrounding the NZ ETS, has limited the effectiveness of the scheme in achieving its forestry goals. Prospects going forward are more positive particularly if the current re of the ETS can create clear predictable price signals and better manage the complexity of forestry rewards and liabilities, particularly as faced by smaller landowners who are not professional foresters but could potentially participate and reforest. JEL codes Q23, Q54, Q58 Keywords Forestry, emissions trading, environment, New Zealand, Motu, carbon markets, uation Summary haiku Few new trees planted Low price limited effect Can re fix this Including Forestry in an Emissions Trading Scheme Lessons from New Zealand iv Table of contents 1 Introduction 1 2 Description of forestry’s role in the NZ ETS 2 2.1 General description of the NZ ETS 2 2.2 Rules surrounding forestry in the NZ ETS 3 2.3 Key regulatory changes for forestry since the introduction of the NZ ETS 5 3 Observational assessment of NZ ETS impacts on forestry 10 3.1 Price signals 10 3.2 Deforestation and afforestation responses 14 3.3 Modelled forecasts 22 3.4 Participation in the NZ ETS 23 3.5 Econometric analysis 29 3.6 Overall impact 29 4 Key issues for forestry in the NZ ETS going forward 30 4.1 NZ ETS review 30 4.2 Other NZ ETS issues that affect forest sequestration 35 5 Conclusions 37 Appendices 39 Appendix 1 Commodity prices 39 Appendix 2 Definition of deforestation in the NZ ETS 40 References 41 Recent Motu Working Papers 44 Including Forestry in an Emissions Trading Scheme Lessons from New Zealand v Tables and figures Figure 1 Credits and liabilities over two forestry rotations 5 Figure 2 Daily carbon prices 2010 16 7 Figure 3 The effect of the carbon price on timber prices and afforestation 1990 2014 11 Figure 4 New Zealand dairy profit 1990 2013 13 Figure 5 New Zealand sheep beef profit 1990 2013 14 Figure 6 Deforestation as observed by satellite 1990 2014 15 Figure 7 Notified deforestation versus carbon price 16 Figure 8 Average age of forest at harvest on land deforested, 2008 14 17 Figure 9 Harvesting age of pine forest 2001 14 17 Figure 10 Harvested area awaiting replanting, restocking and clear-fell 2001 14 18 Figure 11 Conversion from pine to pasture, Waikato catchments 2001 12 19 Figure 12 New forest planting afforestation 1990 2014 21 Figure 13 Contracted nitrogen reductions for Lake Taupo 2007 18 22 Figure 14 Growth cycles for small and large forest owners 24 Figure 15 NZ ETS-registered forest versus total afforestation, hectares 1990 2014 26 Figure 16 Participation Rates in ETS 1990-2014 27 Figure 17 Registered NZ ETS land by forest size 1990 2013 28 Figure 18 Net afforestation 1990 2014 30 Figure 19 Long-run carbon stock in 30 hectare unily distributed age forest 31 Table 1 Long-term safe credits per hectare of forest, by year of planting 25 Table 2 Size breakdown of NZ ETS participants 2015 27 Including Forestry in an Emissions Trading Scheme Lessons from New Zealand 1 1 Introduction New Zealand is the first, and still the only, country to include forest landowners as full and, in some cases, mandatory participants in a greenhouse gas GHG emissions trading scheme ETS, the NZ ETS.1Carbon sequestration by forestry continues to be an important part of New Zealand s contribution to its global obligations to reduce emissions. This paper seeks to, 1 describe the policy changes to the NZ ETS since 2008 that directly affect forestry; 2 assess the effectiveness of the scheme; 3 determine who is benefiting from it; and 4 outline issues facing forestry in the NZ ETS moving forward. The paper will be of interest within New Zealand as the government undertakes its third review of the NZ ETS, and internationally as others seek to learn lessons from how New Zealand has treated forestry. The paper is ined by official documents, publicly available forestry data, extra data from an Official Ination Act OIA request Motu made to the Ministry for Primary Industries MPI, 2and interviews with a range of stakeholders including government officials, foresters, carbon market operators, forestry consultants, environmental non-governmental organisations, and researchers. We use both a quantitative and qualitative approach to assess effectiveness. We find that the forestry sector is largely responding to the financial incentives provided by the NZ ETS in a rational way; however, these incentives have mostly been weak when pering as intended and have sometimes been perverse. We also find that policy uncertainty has been a significant factor in deterring forestry investment. Most of this uncertainty has been created by policy drivers the NZ ETS is currently being reviewed for the third time in eight years and was delinked from international markets in 2015. Karpas and Kerr 2011 provided context on forestry s role in the NZ ETS and a preliminary uation of its effectiveness. They found the scheme was functioning and showing promise, but highlighted concerns about investment uncertainty. 3Manley 2016a suggested that the carbon price in 2011 12 influenced afforestation levels and deforestation intentions. The Ministry for the Environment MfE published an uation of the NZ ETS in February 2016, which claimed that the scheme had had a small impact on new planting. This paper adds to the literature by considering newly available public ination and considering a broader range of data sources. Given the NZ ETS s relative infancy, as time passes we continue to gain a better understanding of its impact. Recently, the domestic carbon price has recovered strongly above NZ16 since mid-2016. 4If this persists, it may lead to stronger responses than we have seen to date. 1Or sometimes the forest owner. 2Publicly available at http//motu.nz/our-work/environment-and-resources/emission-mitigation/emissions- trading/emissions-trading-scheme-forecasting-data 3For more general context on the NZ ETS, see Leining 2016 and Leining and Kerr 2016. 4For the latest carbon price and recent history, see https//mtrade.co.nz. Including Forestry in an Emissions Trading Scheme Lessons from New Zealand 2 The paper first provides a background on forestry s role in the NZ ETS, the rules surrounding it, and how these have changed. We then detail how prices relevant to forestry decisions have evolved over time, and assess how forestry owners have responded to these. We explain the ETS-related actions we would have expected to see and compare this with what has happened. Finally, we address the key policy issues facing forestry in the NZ ETS moving forward. For the purposes of this paper, we focus on commercial plantation forests. The NZ ETS also provides incentives for indigenous forest planting and regeneration. 2 Description of forestry’s role in the NZ ETS This section outlines how forestry is treated under the NZ ETS, briefly providing the context and rationale for the rules relating to the sector. For more detailed ination, see Karpas and Kerr 2011. In Section 2.3 we present the key regulatory changes for forestry since the introduction of the NZ ETS. 2.1 General description of the NZ ETS The NZ ETS was introduced in 2008 as a part of the country s efforts to meet its Kyoto Protocol obligations. 5The scheme is designed to enable firms willing to mitigate emissions to do so without loss of competitiveness, and to give other firms an incentive to reduce their GHG emissions. Under the scheme, firms are required to acquire and then surrender New Zealand Units NZUs, 6or other eligible units, 7to account for emissions associated with their activities. Units can be traded on the domestic emissions trading market. The NZ ETS incentivises the planting of additional forests, i.e. planting that would not have occurred in the absence of the scheme. To reduce administrative costs, the NZ ETS does not attempt to distinguish whether a forest planted after 1989 the cut-off date under the Kyoto Protocol rules was additional. 8Some forest owners have received windfall gains for forests that were planted independent of the NZ ETS similar to the gains to pre-existing owners of renewable energy resources and the reverse of the issue of stranded assets for some large emitters, but this has no environmental implications. 5For more ination, see https//www.climatechange.govt.nz/emissions-trading-scheme and Leining 2016. 6An NZU is New Zealand s emission unit, equivalent to one tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent. 7Not ince 1 June 2015, only NZUs, NZ AAUs [Assigned Amount Units], and 2nd Commitment Period CERs [Certified Emission Reduction Units] can be used to meet surrender obligations in the ETS http//www.epa.govt.nz/e-m-t/Pages/ETS_terms.aspx. However, the conditions under which those CERs would be accepted are limited, as the New Zealand Emissions Trading Register ceased international transactions from 19 November 2015 http//www.epa.govt.nz/e-m-t/reports/carbon_market/Pages/transaction_trends.aspx. 8The rules under the NZ ETS mimic the Kyoto Protocol forestry rules, but this was not necessary. It was a choice by the government of the time. Including Forestry in an Emissions Trading Scheme Lessons from New Zealand 3 2.1.1 Role of forestry New Zealand is the first, and still the only, country to include forest landowners as full participants in its ETS. This recognises the significant role the sector can play in helping the nation achieve its emission mitigation targets. Forests, and particularly afforestation, can act as a carbon sink , sequestering carbon and therefore counteracting the accumulation of carbon dioxide CO 2 in the atmosphere, which is the main cause of climate change. Forestry can also face liabilities under the NZ ETS for reductions in carbon stocks on forestry land, either from harvesting of post-1989 forests that have been registered in the ETS or deforestation mandatory for most pre-1990 forests. 9Deforestation was not significant in New Zealand in the 1990s; however, it has accelerated in the new millennium. Dorner and Hyslop 2014 showed that less than 0.25 of the plantation forestry area was deforested between 1997 and 2002, whereas this increased to almost 2 of a considerably larger area for the 2002 08 period. The New Zealand Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990 2014 states that little deforestation occurred between 1990 and 2004, with most occurring since then Ministry for the Environment 2016a. Forestry activities eligible under the Kyoto Protocol sequestered net CO 2 equivalent to nearly 16 of New Zealand s gross emissions in 2015. 10The sector more than completely offset the New Zealand s total gross emissions during Kyoto s first commitment period CP1. 11Unfortunately, the age structure of New Zealand forests means that, under business as usual, there will be significant harvesting from around 2020. This could make forests a net carbon source, before they become a sink again with new growth in new and replanted forests Ministry for the Environment 2013. 2.1.2 Forestry goals of the NZ ETS Broadly speaking, the forestry component of the NZ ETS provides incentives to promote carbon sequestration and storage by 1 Discouraging deforestation of pre-1990 forests; and encouraging, 2 Planting of new post-1989 forests; 3 Replanting of post-1989 forest
展开阅读全文