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Network for Greening the Financial System First comprehensive report A call for action Climate change as a source of financial risk April 2019Foreword by Frank Elderson, Chair of the NGFS NGFS CALL FOR ACTION REPORT 1 W e collectively face the effects of climate change, as it reaches beyond economies, borders, cultures, and languages. In 2017, air pollution was a cause of almost 5 million deaths worldwide while 62 million people in 2018 were affected by natural hazards, with 2 million needing to move elsewhere due to climate events. A transition to a green and low-carbon economy is not a niche nor is it a “nice to have“ for the happy few. It is crucial for our own survival. There is no alternative. Therefore, we need to come together and take action to create a bright, sustainable future. Understanding what the magnitude of climate change heralds for financial stability, at the initiative of Banque de France, eight central banks and supervisors established a Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System NGFS at the Paris “One Planet Summit” in December 2017. Since then, the NGFS has grown to 34 Members and 5 Observers from all over the globe. Climate-related risks are a source of financial risk and it therefore falls squarely within the mandates of central banks and supervisors to ensure the financial system is resilient to these risks. This significant breakthrough was already acknowledged in the NGFS progress report, published in October 2018. With this first NGFS comprehensive report, we build upon this insight to issue six recommendations the first four apply to the work of central banks and supervisors while the last two address policymakers. However, all six call for collective action and draw a focus to integrating and implementing previously identified needs and best practices for a smooth transition towards a low-carbon economy. These recommendations are aimed at inspiring central banks and supervisors– NGFS members and non-members – to take the necessary measures to foster a greener financial system. We need to take action and we cannot and will not do this alone. We will globally cooperate with policy makers, the financial sector, academia and other stakeholders to distill best practices in addressing climate-related risks. The achievements of the NGFS and the rapid expansion of its membership within a year have exceeded my expectations. However, we are not there yet. These recommendations represent only the Network’s beginnings, as there is much work to be done in order to equip these aforementioned actors with appropriate tools and ologies to identify, quantify and mitigate climate risks in the financial system. Future deliverables include a handbook on climate and environmental risk management, voluntary guidelines on scenario-based risk analysis and best practices for incorporating sustainability criteria into central banks’ portfolio management. Going forward, the NGFS also expects to dedicate more resources to the analysis of environmental risks. I am confident that the brain trust of the NGFS will continue to grow and evolve, keeping in mind the aim of having the financial sector worldwide contribute toward a greener future. As chair, I am very proud of what the NGFS has accomplished in only 16 months since its creation, and I look forward to consolidating our work during the coming years. Finally, I would like to extend my thanks to the tremendous amount of work done by everyone involved in this endeavour, the chairs and members of the three working groups and my team at De Nederlandsche Bank. In particular I would like to thank the secretariat at the Banque de France, without whom we would not have stood where we stand today.Contents NGFS CALL FOR ACTION REPORT 3 cutive summary 4 Presentation of the NGFS 7 1. Climate change as a source of economic and financial risks 11 1.1 Climate change is a source of structural change in the economy and financial system and therefore falls within the mandate of central banks and supervisors 12 1.2 Climate change is different from other sources of structural change 12 1.3 How climate change might affect the economy and financial stability 13 1.4 The future impacts provide a loud wake-up call 17 2. A call for action what central banks and supervisors can do and how policymakers can facilitate our work 19 2.1 Recommendation n°1 – Integrating climate-related risks into financial stability monitoring and micro-supervision 20 2.2 Recommendation n°2 – Integrating sustainability factors into own-portfolio management 28 2.3 Recommendation n°3 – Bridging the data gaps 29 2.4 Recommendation n°4 – Building awareness and intellectual capacity and encouraging technical assistance and knowledge sharing 30 2.5 Recommendation n°5 – Achieving robust and internationally consistent climate and environment-related disclosure 31 2.6 Recommendation n°6 – Supporting the development of a taxonomy of economic activities 33 3. Looking forward operationalising the work and strengthening the dialogue 37 List of acronyms 39 Boxes 1 Distinguishing between climate and environment-related risks 2 Designing a scenario analysis framework for central banks and supervisors 3 Case study of quantitative analysis – DNB physical risk CRA tool 4 The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission analysis of default rates of green loans compared to the overall loan portfolio 5 Sustainable investment at the Banque de France 6 Green taxonomies and the cases of China and Europe 11 21 24 26 29 34cutive summary NGFS CALL FOR ACTION REPORT 4 In the October 2018 progress report, NGFS members acknowledged that “climate-related risks are a source of financial risk. It is therefore within the mandates of central banks and supervisors to ensure the financial system is resilient to these risks.” The legal mandates of central banks and financial supervisors vary throughout the NGFS membership, but they typically include responsibility for price stability, financial stability and the safety and soundness of financial institutions. Even though the prime responsibility for ensuring the success of the Paris Agreement rests with governments, it is up to central banks and supervisors to shape and deliver on their substantial role in addressing climate-related risks within the remit of their mandates. Understanding how structural changes affect the financial system and the economy is core to fulfilling these responsibilities. Climate change is one of many sources of structural change affecting the financial system. 1However, it has distinctive characteristics that mean it needs to be considered and managed differently. These include Far-reaching impact in breadth and magnitude climate change will affect all agents in the economy households, businesses, governments, across all sectors and geographies. The risks will likely be correlated with and potentially aggravated by tipping points, in a non-linear fashion. This means the impacts could be much larger, and more widespread and diverse than those of other structural changes. Foreseeable nature while the exact outcomes, time horizon and future pathway are uncertain, there is a high degree of certainty that some combination of physical and transition risks will materialise in the future. Irreversibility the impact of climate change is determined by the concentration of greenhouse gas GHG emissions in the atmosphere and there is currently no mature technology to reverse the process. Above a certain threshold, scientists have shown with a high degree of confidence that climate change will have irreversible consequences on our planet, though uncertainty remains about the exact severity and time horizon. Dependency on short-term actions the magnitude and nature of the future impacts will be determined by actions taken today, which thus need to follow a credible and forward-looking policy path. This includes actions by governments, central banks and supervisors, financial market participants, firms and households. While today’s macroeconomic models may not be able to accurately predict the economic and financial impact of climate change, climate science leaves little doubt action to mitigate and adapt to climate change is needed now. The NGFS recognises that there is a strong risk that climate- related financial risks are not fully reflected in asset valuations. There is a need for collective leadership and globally coordinated action and, therefore, the role of international organisations and plats is critical. The NGFS, as a coalition of the willing and a voluntary, consensus-based forum provides six recommendations for central banks, supervisors, policymakers and financial institutions to enhance their role in the greening of the financial system and the managing of environment and climate-related risks. The recommendations are not binding and reflect the best practices identified by NGFS members to facilitate the role of the financial sector in achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Recommendations n°1 to 4 are aimed at inspiring central banks and supervisors – NGFS members and non-members – to take these best practices on board when it fits within their mandate. Parts of these recommendations may also be applicable to financial institutions. Important steps in this regard include a Assessing climate-related financial risks in the financial system by mapping physical and transition risk transmission channels within the financial system and adopting key risk indicators to monitor these risks; 1 The report focuses on climate-related risks rather than environment- related risks. Recommendation n°1 Integrating climate-related risks into financial stability monitoring and micro-supervision.NGFS CALL FOR ACTION REPORT 5 conducting quantitative climate-related risk analysis to size the risks across the financial system, using a consistent and comparable set of data-driven scenarios encompassing a range of different plausible future states of the world; considering how the physical and transition impact of climate change can be included in macroeconomic forecasting and financial stability monitoring. b Integrating climate-related risks into prudential supervision, including Engaging with financial firms – to ensure that climate-related risks are understood and discussed at board level, considered in risk management and investment decisions and embedded into firms’ strategy; – to ensure the identification, analysis, and, as applicable, management and reporting of climate-related financial risks. Setting supervisory expectations to provide guidance to financial firms as understanding evolves. Acknowledging the different institutional arrangements in each jurisdiction, the NGFS encourages central banks to lead by example in their own operations. Without prejudice to their mandates and status, this includes integrating sustainability factors into the management of some of the portfolios at hand own funds, pension funds and reserves to the extent possible. Notwithstanding that the focus of central banks incorporating environmental, social and governance ESG aspects into their portfolio management has been on own funds and pension portfolios, some voices have called for an extension of this approach to monetary policy. Going forward, the NGFS considers exploring the interaction between climate change and central banks’ mandates beyond financial stability and the effects of climate-related risks on the monetary policy frameworks, paying due regard to their respective legal mandates. Recommendation n°2 Integrating sustainability factors into own-portfolio management. The NGFS recommends that the appropriate public authorities share data of relevance to Climate Risk Assessment CRA and, whenever possible, make them publicly available in a data repository. In that respect, the NGFS sees merit in setting up a joint working group with interested parties to bridge the existing data gaps. The NGFS encourages central banks, supervisors and financial institutions to build in-house capacity and to collaborate within their institutions, with each other and with wider stakeholders to improve their understanding of how climate-related factors translate into financial risks and opportunities. The NGFS also encourages relevant parties to offer technical assistance to raise awareness and build capacity in emerging and developing economies. Recommendations n°5 and 6 do not fall directly within the remit of central banks and supervisors but point to actions that can be taken by policymakers to facilitate the work of central banks and supervisors. Parts of these recommendations may also be applicable to the private sector. The NGFS emphasises the importance of a robust and internationally consistent climate and environmental disclosure framework. NGFS members collectively pledge their support for the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures TCFD. The NGFS encourages all companies issuing public debt or equity as well as financial sector institutions to disclose in line with the TCFD recommendations. The NGFS recommends that policymakers and supervisors consider further actions to Recommendation n°3 Bridging the data gaps. Recommendation n°4 Building awareness and intellectual capacity and encouraging technical assistance and knowledge sharing. Recommendation n°5 Achieving robust and internationally consistent climate and environment- related disclosure.NGFS CALL FOR ACTION REPORT 6 foster a broader adoption of the TCFD recommendations and the development of an internationally consistent environmental disclosure framework. The NGFS encourages policymakers to bring together the relevant stakeholders and experts to develop a taxonomy that enhances the transparency around which economic activities i contribute to the transition to a green and low-carbon economy and ii are more exposed to climate and environment-related risks both physical and transition. Such a taxonomy would facilitate financial institutions’ identification, assessment and management of climate and environment-related risks; help gain a better understanding of potential risk differentials between different types of assets; mobilise capital for green and low-carbon investments consistent with the Paris Agreement. To some extent, recommendations n°1-4 require the implementation of recommendations n°5-6, but this does not preclude central banks and supervisors from acting now. Going forward, the NGFS will continue its work as long as its members deem it necessary and useful. The lesson drawn from the first sixteen months of NGFS activity is that climate change presents significant financial risks that are best mitigated through an early and orderly transition. To ensure such a smooth transition, there is still a significant amount of analytical work to be done in order to equip centra
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