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Regional Renewable Energy Planning International Case Studies, Lessons Learned Prepared by Ryan Wiser, consultant to the Center for Resource Solutions Amber Sharick, Center for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Richard O’Connell, Black not all of these departments have the ability to employ complicated energy-sector models. As such, relatively few examples of comprehensive provincial-level renewable energy planning exist in China. Moreover, China’s Renewable Energy Law does not clearly specify what is to be included in these provincial plans and, to the authors knowledge, the national government has not yet established the provincial-level renewable energy targets that might guide the provincial-level renewable energy plans. The CRESP and CSEP programs are interested in assisting China’s provinces in cuting their renewable energy planning responsibilities. To do so, CSEP has worked with several provinces, over the course of a number of years, on renewable energy issues. CRESP, meanwhile, is 1 In addition to these targets, local governments at the above-county level are required to establish rural renewable energy targets and implementation plans. 2 From here on, we refer simply to provincial planning, but we recognize that these plans are also required from autonomous regions and certain municipalities. Regional Renewable Energy Planning 2 working with CRED to ulate planning s that are practical for provincial application, including the development of appropriate datasets and planning tools. To assist CRED, CRESP has contracted with Tsinghua University to assist with China-specific datasets, planning s, and ats. CRESP has also contracted with a team from the Center for Resource Solutions CRS to highlight international regional renewable energy planning practices and experiences. This report is the culmination of that latter effort, and highlights a number of specific examples of regional renewable energy plans from the United States, the European Union, and emerging economies. The report emphasizes ten specific planning case studies, which were selected based on a number of criteria 1 relevance to China’s circumstances; 2 diversity of planning objectives, s, approaches, and covered sectors; and 3 diversity of geographies and contexts. In focusing on international case studies and lessons learned, it is hoped that this work will assist CRED in uating various approaches that might be used by China’s provinces. 1.2 Report Structure This report is structured as follows In Section 2 we provide a brief overview of the various objectives, tools, and processes used in renewable energy planning, and how the cases included in this report fit within that context. In Section 3 we summarize four renewable energy planning case studies from the United States, including cases from New Jersey, Pennsylvania, the Western United States, and California. In Section 4 we summarize three renewable energy planning case studies from the European Union, including cases from the United Kingdom, Germany, and the EU at large. In Section 5 we summarize three renewable energy planning case studies from emerging economies, including cases from Morocco, South Africa, and India. Based on these 10 case studies, in Section 6 we summarize some key findings and recommendations that may be relevant to China’s circumstances. Regional Renewable Energy Planning 3 2. Background In the broadest sense, planning is an iterative process that involves articulating objectives, establishing measurable targets, assigning resources and responsibilities to achieve those targets, uating progress, and adjusting targets and actions over time as circumstances change. Energy planning is a broad term, however, and such planning can vary in scope and come in many s. The role of data, analysis, modeling, and stakeholder processes within a plan can also vary. Focusing on renewable energy planning, some of the variations are as follows. First, the basic objectives of a renewable energy planning process can vary substantially Overall Energy Mix In some instances, renewable energy planning may be part of an overall energy plan that contains many other elements as well. In this case, the use of analysis may be to uate the costs and benefits of different energy supply and demand scenarios, with renewable energy being only one of several options. Setting Renewable Energy Targets In other instances, a renewable energy plan may have a goal of setting specific renewable energy targets. In this instance, analysis may seek to understand the costs and benefits of achieving different target levels, the implications of allocating those targets among different renewable technologies, and the policy efforts needed to achieve the agreed-upon targets. Target Implementation In some cases, the renewable energy targets will have already been established, by law or regulation, in which case renewable energy planning is likely to focus on the allocation of those targets among renewable energy sources, and the policy efforts needed to achieve the pre-specified targets. Spatial and Land-Use Planning In still other instances, the goals of renewable energy planning are more limited. For example, some plans may focus on identifying specific geographic areas that are suitable for renewable energy development, while minimizing land use conflicts or constraints. Transmission and Grid Integration Finally, some planning rcises focus very explicitly on the implications of renewable energy on the need for new transmission infrastructure, and/or grid operations. In other instances, such considerations are embedded within a broader energy planning process. Second, the scope of renewable energy plans may vary. In particular, most plans address the electricity sector, while a more limited set of plans also address the use of renewable energy in the transportation sector and in the heating and cooling sector. In some planning processes, rural energy needs are also addressed. Third, the role of data, analysis, and modeling can vary substantially. In some instances, modeling is limited, and planning efforts primarily build on past analysis and stakeholder processes. On the other end of the spectrum, some renewable energy plans rely on complex data sets and sophisticated tools. In should be noted, however, that such modeling is rarely the final word instead, modeling is used to in the planning process. Regional Renewable Energy Planning 4 Fourth, the entity responsible for the planning can vary. Renewable energy plans are frequently, but not always, overseen by relevant government bodies. In many instances, multiple government agencies are jointly responsible for the planning process, with responsibilities allocated based on government function. The use of contractors, however, varies, with some plans relying heavily on outside consultants to manage the analysis functions, while others rely primarily on government planning staff. Finally, the process by which planning occurs often varies. The value of planning often derives from both the outcomes of the plan and the stakeholder process in which the plan is developed and uated. As such, most international cases include robust stakeholder processes, though the scope and nature of those processes often vary significantly. These details are all discussed further with respect to the 10 specific case studies that follow. To provide some sense for the breadth of the case studies in our sample, however, Table 1 identifies the basic objectives and sectoral scope of each case. Table 1. Scope of International Renewable Energy Planning Case Studies Case Study Primary Objective Covered Sectors United States New Jersey Energy Master Plan Overall energy mix Electricity; Heating Pennsylvania Renewables Portfolio Standard Setting renewable energy targets; Target implementation Electricity Western Clean and Diversified Energy Advisory Committee Setting renewable energy targets; Target implementation Electricity California Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative Transmission planning Electricity European Union United Kingdom Renewable Energy Strategy Setting renewable energy targets; Target implementation Electricity; Heating; Transportation EU Proposed Renewables Directive Target Allocation Setting renewable energy targets Electricity; Heating; Transportation Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany, Energy Concept 2020 Overall energy mix; Setting renewable energy targets; Target implementation Electricity; Heating; Transportation Emerging Economies Morocco Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Study Setting renewable energy targets; Target implementation Electricity; Heating; Transportation West Cape, South Africa, Sustainable Energy Strategy Setting renewable energy targets; Target implementation Electricity; Heating; Transportation Tamil Nadu, India, State and National Renewable Planning Setting renewable energy targets; Target implementation Electricity focus of this report, including rural Regional Renewable Energy Planning 5 3. Case Studies United States 3.1 New Jersey Energy Master Plan Introduction Context and Purpose Since the 1970s, the state of New Jersey has periodically published Energy Master Plans. State law requires that these plans be updated or revised at least once every three years, and that they are produced collaboratively by the state’s various governmental departments and agencies. For the current plan, data, analysis, and modeling support was provided by Rutgers University, under contract to the state. The current version of the Energy Master Plan was first announced in late 2006, was worked on throughout 2007, and was released in draft in April 2008 for public comment. The final version was completed in late 2008; this case however, reviews the draft plan, and has not been updated to reflect the final version. The Energy Master Plan has three broad objectives Identify key energy issues and problems facing the state; Develop solutions to those problems in the near- and long-term; and Highlight tangible actions to make those solutions a reality. The Energy Action Plan includes, but is not particularly focused on, renewable energy. Instead, it covers many aspects of the state’s energy system, including electricity and heating; transport will be covered in a separate report, not yet published. New Jersey’s Energy Master Plan is included as a case here because it provides a good example of an energy planning process that is 1 led by a regional government; 2 is reasonably comprehensive in scope, and includes renewable energy in the electricity and heating sectors; 3 involves extensive public engagement; and 4 includes modeling to estimate the impacts for the state of both a business-as-usual and alternative energy scenarios. As context, New Jersey is located in the Northeastern United States, is densely populated, has 17,000 MW of electric generating capacity, and consumed 82,000 GWh of electricity in 2006. New Jersey is not particularly strongly endowed with renewable resources it has some biomass potential, some wind potential most located offshore, and a moderate solar resource. Energy policy responsibilities in the United States are split between state and federal government agencies, with states having primary responsibility for supply planning and retail rates. As a result, state energy planning processes are not uncommon, though those plans are often constrained by federal law that limits state authority over some energy issues. Stakeholders were heavily involved in the drafting of the Energy Master Plan. The process involved stakeholder comments and feedback in the beginning stages, a series of committees and work groups that have provided to the process e.g., steering committee consisting of 11 state agencies, expert advisory panel, education and outreach working group, conventional electric supply working group, and a broad circulation of the draft in April 2008, including a number of stakeholder and public meetings to review the draft. Written and oral comments can Regional Renewable Energy Planning 6 also be offered during al, public hearings, and though a website. Throughout the drafting, the goal was to maintain an open and transparent process. s and Data Rutgers University was contracted to provide data, analysis, and modeling support for the Energy Master Plan. As with the plan itself, the modeling was guided by stakeholder involvement and technical working groups. It should also be clearly stated that the modeling ined but did not solely determine the actions proposed in the plan. Consideration of stakeholder comments and expert consultation played significant roles. The modeling specifically analyzed the state’s energy situation through 2020 in a business-as-usual scenario as well an alternative scenario reflecting the policy changes outlined in the plan. The modeling sought to assess the implications of these two futures on energy use, energy prices, economic growth, air quality, and greenhouse gas emission. In so doing, it recognized the critical linkages among energy, environmental, and economic policies, and the need to address all three in a comprehensive fashion. Emphasis is placed on the difference between the two scenarios, more so than on the absolute value of modeling results in any one of the scenarios. The modeling also incorporated some sensitivity analysis to assess the impacts of changes in assumptions on the results, including different CO2 prices, high fuel price cases, as well as cases that varied the amount of energy efficiency and demand response. Two major models were used for the analysis behind the Energy Master Plan. The first is R/ECON, a detailed econometric time series model of the New Jersey economy. This model consists of over 300 equations, based on a large amount of historical data for New Jersey and the U.S. The heart of the model is a set of equations that model employment, wages, and prices, by industry. The model was extended for the purpose of the Energy Master Plan to include a variety of energy-sector specific s and equations. The purpose of the model is to generate projections for the macroeconomic impacts of alternative development pathways, focusing on employment and economic development indicators. The second modeling tool is DAYZER, a sophisticated model of the wholesale electric power market that incorporates the unit commitment and dispatch of the electric power system that serves New Jersey. The tool simulates the operation of the electric power market, considering electrical demand, supply, and transmission. The model requires that transmission and generation additions, retirements, and costs are exogenously into the model. The outputs of DAYZER, along with numerous other assumptions, are into R/ECON, which then estimates the aggregate economy
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