气候变化国家评估报告（Ⅰ）：中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势.pdf

Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2006, 2 1 3-.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullO.null.nullN.nullOMMS.null N.null ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCHVol.2, No.1January, 2 0 0 6.nullnonmarkingreturn “1673-1719 2006 01-0003-06.nullnonmarkingreturn “ extrem events; greenhouse gas; aerosols; radiative forcing; climate projection 1 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 2 Institute ofAtmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; 3 Nanjing University, Nanjing Jiangsu210093, China; 4 Department of Forecasting Services and Disaster Mitigation, China MeteorologicalAdministration, Beijing 100081, China; 5 The School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871; 6 Departmentof Scientific and Technological Development,China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081,China .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “OMMR.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn .null.nullOMMR.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “46.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “100081.nullnonmarkingreturnL.nullnonmarkingreturnW010-58995171http//E-mail .null.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn .null.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “.null.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “46.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “100081.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “46.null.nullnonmarkingreturn “100081.nullnonmarkingreturn 010-68406961E-mail Editorial Board of Advances in Climate Change ResearchAdd 46 Zhongguancun Nandajie,Beijing 100081, ChinaTel Fax 86-10-58995171http//E-mail QIN DaheNational Climate Center, China Meteorological AdministrationChina Meteorological PressAdd 46 Zhongguancun Nandajie,Beijing 100081, ChinaPrinting Factory of Petroleum Industry Publishing HouseChina Meteorological PressAdd 46 Zhongguancun Nandajie,Beijing 100081, ChinaTel 86-10-68406961E-mail .nullnonmarkingreturn “QIHOU BIANHUA YANJIU JINZHAN.nullnonmarkingreturn “2005.nullnonmarkingreturn .null2.null.null1.null2006.null1.nullAdvances inClimate Change ResearchBimonthly, Started in 2005Vol. 2No. 1January 2006Edited byEditor-in-ChiefSponsored byPublished byPrinted byDistributed by.nullnonmarkingreturn “ISSN 1673J1719.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “80J463.nullnonmarkingreturn “CN 11J5368LP.nullnonmarkingreturn 12.00.null.null.null.null.null.null.null.null.null.nullnonmarkingreturn.nullnonmarkingreturnAdv.Clim. Change Res. 2006-01 21 1 - 48.nullnonmarkingreturn “.nullnonmarkingreturn “ .nullnonmarkingreturn .nullnonmarkingreturn “ *.null.null1.nullnonmarkingreturn “IPCC.nullnonmarkingreturn “21.nullnonmarkingreturn ““ .nullnonmarkingreturn P.7.nullFig.1 The 21th century temperature trends projected under two emission scenarios for China region using IPCCclimate models see Ding’s text, P.7420J4A2CCCmaCCSRCSIROGFDLHadleyNCC/IAPT63obs1086J21900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 .null520J2J338B2CCCmaCCSRCSIROGFDLHadleyNCC/IAPT63obs1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21007641J1.null.nullnonmarkingreturn /.null.nullnonmarkingreturn /.null