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WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2013WMO-No. 1130WMO, in collaboration with Members, began issuing annual statements on the status of the global climate in 1993. This publication was issued in collaboration with the Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland; the Climatic Research Unit CRU, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom; the Climate Prediction Center CPC, the National Climatic Data Center NCDC, the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Ination Service NESDIS, the National Hurricane Center NHC and the National Weather Service NWS of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA, United States of America; the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GISS operated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASA, United States; the Japan Meteorological Agency JMA, Japan; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF, United Kingdom; the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre GPCC, Germany; the Global Snow Laboratory, Rutgers University, United States; the National Snow and Ice Data Center NSIDC, United States; the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, University of Colorado-Boulder, United States; the Polar Science Center, University of Washington, United States; the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia; and the Vienna University of Technology, Austria. Other contributors are the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services or equivalent climate institutions of Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Fiji, Finland, France, Germany, Guinea, Hungary, Iceland, India, Iran Islamic Republic of, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mexico, Montenegro, Morocco, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Portugal, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United Republic of Tanzania and United States. The WMO Regional Association VI Europe Regional Climate Centre on Climate Monitoring, the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development ACMAD, Niamey, the Hong Kong Observatory HKO, Hong Kong, China, the Australian Research Council ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of Melbourne, Australia, and the International Research Centre on El Niño CIIFEN, Guayaquil, Ecuador also contributed.WMO-No. 1130© World Meteorological Organization, 2014The right of publication in print, electronic and any other and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed toChair, Publications BoardWorld Meteorological Organization WMO7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel. 41 0 22 730 84 03P.O. Box 2300 Fax 41 0 22 730 80 40CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail Publicationswmo.intISBN 978-92-63-11130-2NOTEThe designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion what-soever on the part of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised.The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in WMO publications with named authors are those of the authors alone and do not neces-sarily reflect those of WMO or its Members.Cover illustration Praveen Agrawal / WFPContentsForeword 2Preface 3Key findings 4Temperatures 4Rain, snow and ice 5Oceans 7Regional highlights 8Tropical cyclones 15Greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances 17Major weather and climate events around the world in 2013 19Explaining the summer 2012/2013 and annual 2013 record warmth in Australia 20ForewordThe dramatic impact of climate variability and climate change continued to be felt all over the world throughout 2013 The WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2013 pro-vides a snapshot of global and regional trends in weather and climate over the past year and highlights some of the year’s most significant extreme events The year 2013 tied with 2007 as the sixth warm-est since global records began in 1850 Although the climate varies naturally from year to year, it is clear that the planet is experiencing an overall warming trend Thirteen of the fourteen warmest years on record have all occurred in the twenty-first century, and each of the past three decades has been warmer than the last, culminating with 2001–2010 as the warmest decade on record As highlighted by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this steady warming is caused by rising levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere We now have a better understanding of human- induced climate change, and climate scientists can increasingly determine how large-scale pressure and temperature patterns influence the weather The best known of these is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation ENSO in the Pacific Ocean, which affects weather patterns around the world through “teleconnections” In addition to ENSO, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, jet streams and other recurring patterns also often explain why weather conditions are wetter, drier, warmer, cooler or stormier than average Weather forecasting, including the prediction of storms and other hazards, has greatly evolved in recent years In October 2013, the events sur-rounding Cyclone Phailin, the second strongest tropical cyclone to strike India since modern records began, showed how improved fore-casting, combined with government action to build national resilience and provide shelters, greatly reduces the loss of life Nevertheless, extreme events can still cause fatalities and destroy property, so we must continue enhanc-ing preparedness, strengthening early warning systems and implementing a multi-hazard approach to disaster risk reduction The Statement draws on from leading research institutions and from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of WMO Members This summary has been pub-lished in all six official WMO languages in order to reach the broadest possible readership However, I also strongly encourage interested readers to examine the more detailed underlying report, which is available on the WMO website M Jarraud Secretary-General23This Statement is based on datasets and infor-mation that were made available by WMO Members and partners for 2013 and assessed in their global and regional geographical context Comparisons were made with climatological averages and records historical background whenever possible and appropriate The global temperature assessment is based on three independent datasets that are maintained by the Met Office Hadley Centre and the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia HadCRU, both in the United Kingdom; the National Climatic Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NCDC–NOAA, based in the United States; and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GISS operated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASA, also in the United States The HadCRU dataset extends back to 1850, and the NCDC and GISS datasets and hence the combined dataset extend back to 1880 Other datasets have also been used for additional analysis The content was developed and peer-reviewed by several experts affiliated with international and regional climate institutions, centres and programmes, and by the world’s National Meteorological and Hydrological Services NMHSs, the main providers of the under-lying observations and climate ination More than 50 NMHSs provided direct to the Statement following the WMO call for contributions Many others made their data and climate reports available on their websites, and these were accessed when necessary When doubts arose as to facts and figures, WMO communicated with the relevant national source in order to verify the ination before its inclusion in the Statement The definition of the Regions is based on the WMO regional structure, as follows Africa Region I Asia Region II South America Region III North America, Central America and the Caribbean Region IV South-West Pacific Region V Europe Region VI WMO Climate System Monitoring uses Essential Climate Variables ECVs as defined by the Global Climate Observing System Some 50 ECVs have been identified as fundamental for global observation This Statement incorporates assessments of the status of the global climate and observed extremes detected using ECV data and products, including air temperature, precipitation, stratospheric ozone and long-lived greenhouse gases atmospheric ECVs; snow cover, ice sheets and soil moisture terrestrial ECVs; as well as sea ice, sea level rise, sea surface temperature and ocean acidification oceanographic ECVs Preface4TEMPERATURESThe year 2013 tied with 2007 as the sixth warm-est since global records began in 1850 The global average surface temperature was 0 50°C ±0 10°C 0 90°F ±0 18°F above the 1961–1990 average and 0 03°C 0 05°F above the 2001–2010 average The past year was also warmer than both 2011 and 2012, which, though marked by cooling La Niña conditions, were 0 43°C and 0 46°C above average, respectively Warming El Niño and cooling La Niña events are major drivers of natural variability in the climate system Neither condition was present during 2013, which was among the four warmest ENSO-neutral years on record Thirteen of the fourteen warmest years on record, including 2013, have all occurred in the twenty-first cen-tury The warmest on record are 2010 and 2005, followed by 1998 El Niño conditions dominated the early months of 2010 and 1998, and weak El Niño-type conditions extended from 2004 to the first half of 2005 To arrive at these figures, WMO takes an average of the three main global temperature datasets, which are managed separately and use differ-ent ologies Other datasets produce similar but slightly different results A separate temperature analysis conducted by the Japan Meteorological Agency, for example, estimates that 2013 was the second warmest year on record According to reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, 2013 tied with 1998 as the fourth warmest since 1958 Because the capacity for heat absorption differs over land and over sea, the air over the land tends to warm up faster Across the world’s land surfaces, the 2013 global air temperature was 0 85°C ±0 17°C above the 1961−1990 aver-age and 0 06°C above the 2001−2010 average, the fourth highest on record A very warm November–December period that ranked second behind 2006 contributed to this high tempera-ture anomaly Over the global ocean, the surface temperature for 2013 tied with 2004 and 2006 as Figure 1. Global land air surface and sea surface temperature anomalies °C for 2013, relative to 1961–1990Source Met Office Hadley Centre, United Kingdom, and Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, United KingdomFigure 2. Annual global average temperature anomalies relative to 1961–1990 from 1850 to 2013 from the Hadley Centre/CRU HadCRUT4 black line and grey area, representing average and 95 per cent uncertainty range, the NOAA National Climatic Data Center red, and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies blue Source Met Office Hadley Centre, United Kingdom, and Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom180 90W 0 90E 18090S45S045N90N–10 –5 –3 –1 –0.5 –0.2 0 0.2 0.5 135101850 1900 1950 2000Year– 0.8– 0.6– 0.4– 0.200.20.40.6Global average temperature anomaly °CMet Office Hadley Centre and Climatic Research UnitNOAA National Climatic Data CenterNASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesKey findings5the sixth warmest on record, at 0 35°C ±0 07°C above the 1961−1990 average The northern hemisphere’s weather patterns during early 2013 were largely influenced by the Arctic Oscillation This brought cooler- than-average spring temperatures to much of Europe, the south-eastern United States, north-western Russian Federation and parts of Japan The Arctic region, meanwhile, was considerably warmer than average, along with much of central and northern Africa, the eastern Mediterranean, southern Russian Federation and much of China This so-called warm Arctic, cold continents pattern is characteristic of the Arctic Oscillation’s negative phase The year 2013 saw the most negative Arctic Oscillation on record for the month of March A similar pattern with high pressure over Greenland and low pressure to the south re-emerged in late spring, once again causing cold Arctic air to surge into western and central Europe In the southern hemisphere, summer was extremely warm, with monthly January tem-perature anomalies reaching 5°C in parts of Australia Exceptional warm conditions were also present during the winter, with New Zealand experiencing its warmest winter on record The beginning of austral summer 2013/2014 was very hot in parts of South America, with the December temperature reaching new record highs As a result of the continued warmth throughout the year across parts of the southern hemisphere, 2013 was the warmest year on record in Australia, second warmest in Argentina and third warmest in New Zealand Modelling experiments have indicated that the odds of the record Australian hot summer occurring were increased fivefold by human-induced climate change see page 20 and accompanying figure RAIN, SNOW AND ICEGlobal precipitation during 2013 equalled the 1961–1990 average of 1 033 mm, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration United States Precipitation at Figure 4. January–December global land and ocean surface temperature anomalies relative to 1961–1990 for the period 1950–2013; years that started with a moderate or strong La Niña already in place are shown in blue; years that started with a moderate or strong El Niño already in place
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