WMO for the 21st Century.pdf

WEATHER CLIMATE WATER BULLETIN Vol. 68 1 - 2019 WMO for the 21st CenturyContents © World Meteorological Organization, 2018 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Edito- rial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication articles in part or in whole should be addressed to Chairperson, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization WMO 7 bis avenue de la Paix Tel. 41 0 22 730 8403 P.O. Box 2300 Fax. 41 0 22 730 8117 CH-1211 Geneva 2 E-mail publicationswmo.int Switzerland The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in prefer- ence to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. The opinions, findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in WMO Bulletin articles and advertisements are those of the authors and advertisers and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO or its Members. The journal of the World Meteorological Organization Volume 68 1 - 2019 Secretary-General P. Taalas Deputy Secretary-General E. Manaenkova Assistant Secretary-General W. Zhang The WMO Bulletin is published twice per year in English, French, Russian and Spanish editions. Editor E. Manaenkova Associate Editor S. Castonguay Editorial board E. Manaenkova Chair S. Castonguay Secretary P. Kabat Chief Scientist, research R. Masters policy, external relations M. Power development, regional activities J. Cullmann water Y. Adebayo education and training F. Belda Esplugues observing and ination systems Subscription ratesSurface mail Air mail 1 year CHF 30 CHF 43 2 years CHF 55 CHF 75 E-mail pubsaleswmo.int WMO BULLETIN Preface WMO for the 21st Century By David Grimes and Petteri Taalas 2 The Smart Organization for the Future By Gerhard Adrian 4 Data and Systems Perspective on Constituent Body Re By Sue Barrell 7 Data Sharing for Sustainable Development the WMO Ination System WIS 2.0 By Jane Wardle and Jeremy Tandy 12 Extreme-scale Computing and Data Handling - the Heart of Progress in Weather and Climate Prediction By Peter Bauer, Michael C Morgan and Siham Sbil 17 Data-Driven - A Way Through the Storm By Stine Degnegaard and Michel Bloch Andersen, co-contributor Henrik Nordskilde 21Integrated Services for Decision-makers By Gerald Fleming 25 Contributing to Building a Weather-ready, Resilient and Sustainable Society By Jochen Luther, Miriam Andrioli, Cyrille Honoré and Xu Tang 29 The Role of Young Professionals in Driving the Integration of Early Warning Systems By Lydia Cumiskey, Nilay Dogulu, Erika Roxana Meléndez Landaverde, Javed Ali, and Fabio Sai 38 Global Water Issues and Hydrological Responses By Johannes Cullman 45 The Future of Climate Services By Erica Allis, Chris D Hewitt, Ousmane Ndiaye, Angela Michiko Hama, Andreas M Fischer, Ana Bucher, Akihiko Shimpo, Roger Pulwarty, Simon Mason, Manola Brunet, and Barbara Tapia 50 Improving the Forecast Value and Public- Private Collaboration in Data Driven Weather Insights By Mary Glackin 59 Public-Private Partnership - an Innovative Meteorological Service Model By Wei Xiaoli, Li Mingmei, Zhang Jiancheng and Zhang Wei 64 Review of the World Climate Research Programme Setting the Agenda for 21st Century Climate Research By Julia Slingo 66 S2S Forecasting Towards Seamless Prediction By Frederic Vitart and Andy Brown 70 The Alliance for Hydromet Development By Markus Repnik and Vladimir Tsirkunov75WMO - Location Cyprus Photographer Kompas/Hendra A Setyawan HASIn both 2018 and 2019, the World Economic Forum identified weather extremes, natural disasters, the failure of climate change adaptation and mitigation, and water crises as the highest and most probable four global risks for humanity. The socioeconomic consequences and costs related to the impacts of these extreme events continue to rise. Global mobilization – realized through a number of frameworks such as Sustainable Development Goals, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risks Reduction and the Paris Agreement – is needed to respond to these challenges. In this context, the relevance of the Global Weather, Water and Climate Enterprise is paramount to meet the demand for both fundamental and advanced Earth system ination and services at all levels. About 8 years ago, the Membership of WMO challenged its cutive Council to begin reing its processes, procedures and structures. At our last Congress in 2015, Members requested a substantive review and recommendations for the modernization of all of its Constituent Bodies. Considerable efforts have been undertaken since 2011 to have more focused and meaningful meetings of the cutive Council, Regional Associations and T echnical Commissions as well as adopt a paperless approach by using modern ination technology tools for communicating and reporting. The emphasis over the last four years has been to Vol 68 1 - 2019 2 Preface WMO for the 21st Century 3 WMO BULLETIN recommend governance structures that better align resources and capabilities with the strategic and operational planning directions of the Organization. Critical considerations in the re proposals are framed around three key themes. The first is the importance of increasing the involvement and engagement of Members in WMO activities from Permanent Representatives and to experts. The second theme is better alignment of resources to deliver on the strategic objectives of the Organization. While reducing costs is not the goal, capitalizing on the synergies for ination systems infrastructures, research to operations and service delivery extends the use of existing resources. Finally, the last theme was to improve the overall perance of WMO and its Members by ensuring clear roles and responsibilities of each of the Constituent Bodies. The recommended way forward for WMO Constituent Bodies will improve effectiveness and efficiency, facilitate cooperation and partnerships, and provide the agility to uptake global challenges. It will enable WMO to deliver on long term goals for services that better serves societal needs, seamless predictions systems, advanced targeted research that is accelerated to application and closing capacity gaps in particular for developing Members. The new WMO Strategic Plan envisions a world where all nations are more resilient to the socioeconomic consequences of extreme weather, climate, water and other environmental events and underpin their sustainable development with the best possible weather, climate, water and environmental services. While the plan provides a framework of goals and enabling objectives to sup- port this ambition, the proposed new governance will enable the design and implementation frameworks for the realization of this vision. This Bulletin will in you on the proposals and their outcomes, the underlying factors and assumptions, and the implementation strategies to be presented for endorsement at the upcoming Congress in June this year as well as the potential benefits in the areas of Services, Systems, Science and Support of the Smart organization. David Grimes Petteri T aalas President of WMO WMO Secretary-General4 Vol 68 1 - 2019 The Smart Organization for the Future By Gerhard Adrian, Permanent Representative of Germany to the WMO and Chairperson of the Constituent Body Re Task Force A smart, agile and responsive WMO – fit for the 21st Century – coordinates across all areas and takes a holistic and inclusive weather, water and climate approach. The WMO Constituent Body Re aim is to deliver a smart WMO. Its main goal is to align governance and working structures with the WMO Strategic Plan 2020-2030. This is key to improving preparedness for hydrometeorological extremes and mitigating disaster risks. Phenomena like flash floods and droughts require an Earth systems approach for both the observation and forecasting systems. Such an approach is essential to cover all timescales – from minutes to decades. Since the last session of the World Meteorological Congress Cg-17 in 2015, the WMO cutive Council EC has been developing the new governance structure, which follows the weather, climate, water value chain from data acquisition and processing to forecasting and prediction, and services to Members, without omitting the key role of research in all of these. The objective is to increase effectiveness and The five WMO Strategic long-term goals are the foundation for re.5 WMO BULLETIN efficiency, as well as to better engage Members and experts, throughout. The agility and responsiveness of the smart WMO will result from a biennial cycle of sessions for Technical Commissions and Congress. Ordinary sessions of Congress, with a full agenda including elections and reporting as required by WMO Convention every four years, will be complemented by extra-ordinary sessions in the median dedicated to special themes. This change will make it easier for Members to be engaged in WMO matters. The whole WMO community would meet every two years, thus, decisions could be made faster and implemented earlier. Further changes aim to enhance the involvement of Members in the activities of WMO, to involve academic and private sector experts in non-governmental activities and to facilitate partnerships – all to raise the profile of NMHSs at the national and international level. The current figures are clear One third of Members does not at all participate in WMO activities One third participates only sporadically Ten Members fully participate across all areas To increase meaningful participation by Members, a coordination mechanism will be established to involve the Regional Associations RAs in the work of T echnical Commissions as well as other WMO bodies. The RA Presidents – as members of the new EC Technical Coordination Committee – will have a direct influence on the work program of the Technical Commissions. The RAs will retain responsibility for the assessment of regional needs, requirements and priorities, however, RA Presidents through the Technical Coordination Committee can make sure these are reflected in the responsible T echnical Commission ’ s deliverables. This will ensure that the T echnical Commissions provide the regions with expertise, assistance, guidance, as well as technical solutions and standards, that they need. The RAs will also be responsible for the coordination of national and/or regional experts that are nominated to WMO expert teams. Through such measures, the Re aims to achieve regional and gender balance as well as to enhance the involvement of Members in WMO in general. Two technical commissions The Constituent Body Re has only two Technical Commissions Commission for Observation, Infrastructure and Ination System Commission for Weather, Climate, Water and Related Envrionmental Services and Applications Each Technical Commission will have Standing Committees for normative work and study groups created for exploratory work or expert teams. There will be a clear delineation between the intergovernmental work of T echnical Commissions and that of the experts working in the committees and groups. The non- intergovernmental expert teams and study groups would be open to experts from the academia and private sector. The standards developed in the T echnical Regulations are expected to improve through a seamless Earth system approach. The engagement of a broad expert network and the flexibility of working in small focused teams will ensure a more efficient and result-based working structure. A more predictable schedule of events and efficient use of financial resources – including the possibility of funding developing country experts – will lead to a better engagement of all Members. The two proposed Technical Commissions will be complemented by the non-governmental Research Board as well as by expert panels for cross-cutting activities and activities with partners. Other new bodies Besides the new Technical Coordination Committee, EC has established a Policy Advisory Committee to offer counsel on any matters concerning the strategy Vol 68 1 - 2019 6 and policy of the Organization. EC also proposes that Congress establishes an independent Science Advisory Panel and Research Board on Weather, Climate, Water and the Environment. These bodies will deliver a richness of expertise, culture and differing perspectives. Inter-agency coordination mechanisms will also be established to enhance collaboration and interaction with key partners. These joint bodies will streamline WMO working arrangements, programmes and projects with entities such as UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission IOC, International Civil Aviation Organization ICAO, the World Food Programme, UN Water and many more. Better partnerships WMO is the co-custodian of Sustainable Development Goal SDG-13 on Climate Action; however most of the 17 SDGs are directly or indirectly impacted by weather, climate and water – Poverty, Hunger and Food Security, Health, Empowerment of Women, Water Resource Management, Energy, Industry and Infrastructure, Cities and Urban Development, Climate, and Life on Land and Sea. The SDGs stress the importance of partnerships and international cooperation for achieving the goals. The improvement of partnerships and cooperation are also the basis of the WMO Re. Better coordination through more synergistic partnerships will optimize the use of WMO resources and that of Members. The holistic Earth system approach of the WMO Re will permit leading experts and researchers, as well as the private sector and academia to contribute to WMO activities. In addition, this approach is also expected to break the silos in the WMO Secretariat and close the capacity gaps between Members. NMHSs can look forward to a strengthening of their role in protecting life and property, and in building weather and climate resilience. Re Task Force As always, the devil is in the detail. The Constituent Body Re T ask Force, established by EC-70 2018, addresses the questions that remain before Congress in June in order to enable a smooth transition. Questions on how the new bodies will work together, the development of an initial timeline, the mapping of the workplans to the two-years cycle, engaging e