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Energy Outlook 2020 edition3 | bp Energy Outlook 2020 edition 2 | The Energy Outlook explores the forces shaping the global energy transition out to 2050 and the key uncertainties surrounding that transition The Energy Outlook considers a number of different scenarios. These scenarios are not predictions of what is likely to happen or what bp would like to happen. Rather they explore the possible implications of different judgements and assumptions concerning the nature of the energy transition. The scenarios are based on existing and developing technologies which are known about today and do not consider the possibility of entirely new or unknown technologies emerging. Much of the analysis in the Outlook is focussed around three scenarios Rapid, Net Zero and Business-as-usual. The multitude of uncertainties means that the probability of any one of these scenarios materializing exactly as described is negligible. Moreover, the three scenarios do not provide a comprehensive description of all possible outcomes. However, the scenarios do span a wide range of possible outcomes and so might help to in a judgement about the uncertainty surrounding energy markets out to 2050. The Energy Outlook is produced to in bp’s analysis and strategy and is published as a contribution to the wider debate. But the Outlook is only one source among many when considering the future of global energy markets and bp considers a wide range of other analysis and ination when ing its long-term strategy.5 | bp Energy Outlook 2020 edition 4 | In February of this year, bp announced a new purpose – to reimagine energy for people and our planet. This purpose was supported by a new ambition, to be a net-zero company by 2050 or sooner and to help get the world to net zero. Our new purpose and ambition are underpinned by four fundamental judgements about the future. That the world is on an unsustainable path and its carbon budget is running out. That energy markets will undergo lasting change, shifting towards renewable and other s of zero- or low-carbon energy. That demand for oil and gas will be increasingly challenged. And that, alongside many others, bp can contribute to the energy transition that the world wants and needs, and create value doing so. In August, we set out a new strategy in support of this purpose and ambition. It will see bp trans from an International Oil Company focused on producing resources to an Integrated Energy Company focused on delivering solutions for customers. From IOC to IEC. And while the Covid-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on the global economy and energy markets, it has not affected our belief in and commitment to our purpose, ambition and strategy. That belief and commitment is in no small part down to the objective analysis that goes into every edition of the Energy Outlook. It does not to try to predict precise future outcomes – any attempt to do that is doomed to fail. Instead, it helps us to understand the many uncertainties ahead – in the near and longer term – by considering a range of possible pathways the energy transition may take over the next 30 years. This year’s Outlook explores three main scenarios – Rapid, Net Zero and Business-as- usual – which span a wide range of possible outcomes. Those three scenarios have helped us to develop a strategy that we think is robust to the uncertainty around the pace and nature of the energy transition. Three features are common across those scenarios and they a set of core beliefs as to how energy demand is likely to change over the next three decades Renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in meeting the world’s growing energy needs. Customers will continue to redefine mobility and convenience, underpinned by the mobility revolution that is already underway combining electric vehicles, shared mobility and autonomy. Oil and gas – while remaining needed for decades – will be increasingly challenged as society shifts away from its reliance on fossil fuels And those core beliefs lead us to three more about how the energy system will change out to 2050 The energy mix will become more diverse, driven increasingly by customer choice rather than resource availability. Markets will need more integration to accommodate this more diverse supply and will become more localized as the world electrifies and the role of hydrogen expands. Countries, cities and industries will increasing want their decarbonized energy and mobility needs met with bespoke solutions, shifting the centre of gravity of energy markets towards consumers and away from traditional upstream producers. The Energy Outlook has been tracking and analysing the trajectory of the world’s energy system for the past 10 years. This year’s Outlook has been instrumental in the development of the new strategy we announced in August. I hope it is useful to everyone else seeking ways to accelerate the energy transition and get to net zero. We welcome any feedback on the content and how we can improve. Bernard Looney chief cutive officer Welcome to the 2020 edition of bp’s Energy Outlook7 | bp Energy Outlook 2020 edition 6 | cutive summary Global energy demand continues to grow, at least for a period, driven by increasing prosperity and living standards in the emerging world. Significant inequalities in energy consumption and access to energy persist. The structure of energy demand is likely to change over time declining role of fossil fuels, offset by an increasing share of renewable energy and a growing role for electricity. These changes underpin core beliefs about how the structure of energy demand may change. A transition to a lower carbon energy system is likely to lead to fundamental restructuring of the global energy system, with a more diverse energy mix, greater consumer choice, more localized energy markets, and increasing levels of integration and competition. These changes underpin core beliefs about how the global energy system may restructure in a low-carbon transition. Demand for oil falls over the next 30 years. The scale and pace of this decline is driven by the increasing efficiency and electrification of road transportation. The outlook for natural gas is more resilient than for oil, underpinned by the role of natural gas in supporting fast growing developing economies as they decarbonized and reduce their reliance on coal, and as a source of near-zero carbon energy when combined with carbon capture use and storage CCUS. Renewable energy, led by wind and solar power, is the fastest growing source of energy over the next 30 years, supported by a significant increase in the development of – and investment in – new wind and solar capacity. The importance of electricity in final energy consumption increases materially over the next 30 years. The carbon intensity of power generation falls markedly, driven by renewables gaining share relative to coal. The intermittency associated with the growing use of wind and solar power means a variety of different technologies and solutions are needed to balance the energy system and ensure the availability of firm power. The use of hydrogen increases as the energy system progressively decarbonizes, carrying energy to activities which are difficult or costly to electrify. The production of hydrogen is dominated by a mix of blue and green hydrogen. The importance of bioenergy – biofuels, biomethane and biomass – increases as consumption shifts away from fossil fuels. The world is on an unsustainable path. A rapid and sustained fall in carbon emissions is likely to require a series of policy measures, led by a significant increase in carbon prices. These policies may need to be reinforced by shifts in societal behaviours and preferences. Delaying these policies measures and societal shifts may lead to significant economic costs and disruption. Key messages9 | bp Energy Outlook 2020 edition 8 | Contents Overview 10 Three scenarios Rapid, Net Zero and Business-as-usual 12 Changing nature of global energy system 16 Global backdrop 18 Total greenhouse gases 20 Global GDP 22 Climate impacts on GDP growth 24 Energy demand 26 Impact of Covid-19 28 Energy access and economic development 30 Energy use by sector 32 Summary 34 Industry 36 Non-combusted 38 Buildings 40 Transport 42 Regions 50 Summary 52 Regional energy demand and carbon emissions 54 Fuel mix across key countries and regions 56 Global energy trade and energy imbalances 58 Alternative scenario Deglobalization 60 Demand and supply of energy sources 62 Summary 64 Oil and liquid fuels 66 Gas 76 Renewable energy in power 84 Coal 88 Nuclear power 90 Hydroelectricity 92 Other energy carriers 94 Electricity and power generation 96 Hydrogen 102 Carbon emissions from energy use 106 Summary 108 Carbon pathways 110 Alternative scenario Delayed and Disorderly 112 Global energy system at net zero 118 Summary 120 Energy demand 122 Electrification and the power sector 124 Oil and natural gas 126 Bioenergy and hydrogen 128 CCUS and negative emission technologies 130 Investment 132 Summary 134 Upstream oil and gas investment 136 Comparisons 138 Revisions to Rapid 140 Comparing Rapid with external Outlooks 142 Annex 144 Key figures, definitions, ology and data sources 14611 | bp Energy Outlook 2020 edition 10 | Overview Three scenarios Rapid, Net Zero and Business-as-usual Changing nature of global energy system