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ISSN 1977-8449 Renewable energy in Europe 2018 Recent growth and knock-on effects EEA Report No 20/2018Renewable energy in Europe 2018 Recent growth and knock-on effects EEA Report No 20/2018Legal notice The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the official opinions of the European Commission or other institutions of the European Union. Neither the European Environment Agency nor any person or company acting on behalf of the Agency is responsible for the use that may be made of the ination contained in this report. Copyright notice © European Environment Agency, 2018 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. More ination on the European Union is available on the Internet http//europa.eu. Luxembourg Publications Office of the European Union, 2018 ISBN 978-92-9480-044-2 ISSN 1977-8449 doi10.2800/03040 European Environment Agency Kongens Nytorv 6 1050 Copenhagen K Denmark Tel. 45 33 36 71 00 Web eea.europa.eu Enquiries eea.europa.eu/enquiries Cover design EEA Cover photo © EEA Layout EEA/Rosendahls3 Contents Renewable energy in Europe 2018 Contents Acknowledgements 4 cutive summary 5 1 Introduction . 11 1.1 Background international and European context 11 1.2 About this report .13 2 Developments in renewable energy sources in Europe . 16 2.1 Recent progress in deployment of renewable energy sources17 2.2 Breakdown of RES shares by energy market sectors in Member States19 3 Effects on fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions 36 3.1 Avoided fossil fuel use 37 3.2 Gross avoided greenhouse gas emissions .39 3.3 Statistical impacts of renewable energy sources on primary energy consumption.42 3.4 Indirect effects by renewable energy technology .44 4 EU developments in renewable energy sources in a global perspective.46 4.1 Renewable electricity capacities by region and main source 47 4.2 Renewable energy investments 53 4.3 Renewable energy employment 57 Glossary and abbreviations . 58 References . 62 Annex 1 Effects on fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions 65 Annex 2 ology and data sources for calculating approximated RES shares . 67 Annex 3 Discussion of main 2016/2017 changes by sector and country . 69Renewable energy in Europe 2018 4 Acknowledgements Acknowledgements This report was prepared by the European Environment Agency EEA and its European Topic Centre for Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation ETC/ACM. The ETC/ACM is a consortium of European institutes assisting the EEA to support European Union EU policy in the field of air pollution and climate change mitigation. Mihai Tomescu EEA and Ils Moorkens ETC/ACM ensured the coordination of this report. The authors were, in alphabetical order, Anjana Das Vito, Lukas Emele Öko-Institut, Frank Meinke-Hubeny Vito, Ils Moorkens Vito, Christian Nissen Öko-Institut and Mihai Tomescu EEA. The project managers would like to thank Adrian Whiteman, from the International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA, for his cooperation and for the global data sets concerning renewable energy. We also wish to thank Eurostat for allowing us to use the SHARES questionnaire templates to calculate and compile the early renewable energy sources estimates 2016 RES proxies. We are grateful for the support received from François Dejean EEA and André Jol and wish to thank them for their guidance. The EEA would like to thank the national focal points and experts of the EEA member countries for their cooperation and support during the preparation of this report. The EEA also acknowledges the comments and suggestions received from experts from the European Commission and its Joint Research Centre and wishes to thank them for their collaboration. 5 cutive summary Renewable energy in Europe 2018 cutive summary This report outlines the progress made in 2016 in the deployment of renewable energy sources RES in the European Union EU as a whole, and at country, market sector and technology level. It also provides early European Environment Agency EEA estimates for these developments in 2017. The report confirms that the EU s RES share remained in line with the indicative trajectory designed to lead to achieving the mandatory EU RES targets for 2020 a 20 RES share of energy consumption and the 10 RES sub-target for transport. However, to meet these targets with certainty will require further efforts to deploy renewable sources of energy across the EU, especially in the context of recent increases in final energy consumption in some EU Member States. The report also shows that the additional consumption of RES across Europe since 2005 has had a number of co-benefits it allowed the EU to cut its demand for fossil fuels and their associated greenhouse gas GHG emissions by about one tenth, compared with a situation in which renewables would have remained at 2005 levels. Taking a global perspective, the speed at which the EU has transed its energy resource base between 2005 and 2016 has outpaced that of other world regions. However, while the EU is still the worldwide leader in terms of renewable power capacity per capita, it is now being surpassed by other world regions in terms of RES deployment. Renewable energy sources are playing a significant role in the EU s energy mix RES are a major contributor to the transition of Europe s energy sector. The rapid development of some renewable energy technologies has already allowed these technologies to achieve high market shares. Today, for solar photovoltaic PV electricity, biogas electricity and solid biomass use for heating and cooling, these shares are at, or close to, the 2020 levels anticipated by countries in their national renewable energy action plans NREAPs, drafted in 2010. In 2017, renewable energy again accounted for the overwhelming majority 85 of new EU electricity-generating capacity. Moreover, the EU continues to decommission more capacity from conventional sources than it installs. This has led to GHG emission reductions in the EU electricity sector, in the consumption of energy for heating and cooling, and, to a lesser extent, in transport. Recent increases in final energy consumption in some Member States are slowing down the pace of growth of the RES share across the EU The EU-wide share of renewable energy in final EU energy use increased from 16.7 in 2015 to 17.0 in 2016 and to an expected 17.4 in 2017, according to the EEA s early estimates. Accordingly, the EU has met its indicative trajectory for 2016-2017 as set out in the Renewable Energy Directive RED, as well as the expected trajectory path for both years resulting from the NREAPs adopted by countries. However, the average yearly growth in the RES share slowed down in 2016 and2017, compared with the average annual pace of growth recorded between 2005 and 2015. As shown elsewhere EEA, 2018b, the slower RES progress in recent years can largely be attributed to increasing energy consumption across Europe. Although installed renewable capacity has continued to grow, the proportion of energy from renewable sources has fallen as more energy from non-renewable sources is consumed. Currently, increases in final energy consumption from all sources observed since 2015 have led to a reversal in progress towards national and EU energy efficiency objectives for 2020, and this has subsequent effects on the progress at EU-level towards achieving a 20 share of energy consumption from renewable sources by 2020. Today, the RES shares continue to vary widely between countries, ranging from over 30 of gross final energy consumption in countries such as Austria, Denmark, Finland, Latvia and Sweden to below 9 in Belgium, Luxembourg, Malta and the Netherlands.cutive summary 6 Renewable energy in Europe 2018 In absolute terms, renewable energy sources are used the most for heating and cooling; in transport they are lagging behind In absolute terms, renewable energy for heating and cooling remains the dominant RES market sector in Europe. At the EU level, RES made up close to one fifth of all final energy consumed for heating and cooling 19.1 in 2016 and 19.3 in 2017, according to reported data and early EEA estimates, respectively. Since 2005, despite biogas and heat pumps having the fastest compound annual growth rates, solid biomass-based technologies prevailed in this market sector. In absolute terms, renewable electricity is the second largest RES market sector in the EU. Growth in this sector was driven especially by growth in onshore and offshore wind power and solar PV electricity generation, but also by other RES, such as an increase in solid biomass combustion for electricity purposes. In 2017, 85 of all newly installed power capacity in the EU was of renewable origin, with wind power and solar PV accounting for three quarters of the annual increase in renewable power capacity and offshore wind power representing around 20 of the total European wind power market. One third of all electricity consumed in the EU in 2016 and in 2017 originated from renewable sources. The average renewable electricity capacity per capita for the EU more than doubled in 2016 compared with 2005 0.8 kWe per person in 2016, with large differences between Member States. A similar development was observed for the average RES-E capacity per unit of gross domestic product GDP. It more than doubled in 2016, compared with 2005, but large differences remain visible between the Member States. In the EU transport sector, renewable energy made up around 7 of all energy use in both 2016 and 2017, according to reported data and the EEA s early estimates. With renewable electricity currently playing only a small role in transport, the bulk of renewable energy use in this sector comes from biofuels. To prevent potential negative impacts on climate, the environment and interactions with food production from land-use such as when natural forests and food crops are displaced by biofuels, only certified biofuels that comply with the sustainability criteria under the RED can be counted towards the RED targets. Certification is carried out through voluntary schemes recognised by the European Commission and through national systems set up by the Member States. Transport biofuels grew fastest over the period 2005-2016 at 14 per year, on average, as they increased from a very low level in 2005. Nevertheless, comparable efforts are needed in this market sector in the run-up to 2020 to reach the 10 RES target in transport by 2020 at the national and at the EU level. A higher share of renewable electricity use in the transport sector would reduce the pressure on transport biofuels to reach the EU s target of a 10 RES share consumed in transport by 2020. The increased use of renewable energy sources since 2005 allowed the EU to cut its fossil fuel use and the associated greenhouse gas emissions by more than one tenth in 2017 In 2017, most climate mitigation policies and measures reported by the Member States under EU reporting requirements the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation MMR aimed to reduce GHG emissions from fossil fuel-based energy consumption 29 , transport 21 and energy supply 15 . The objective of such policies and measures was often to increase the RES share EEA, 2018a. The additional consumption of renewable energy in 2016, compared with 2005 levels, allowed the EU to cut its demand for fossil fuels by 143 million tonnes of oil equivalent Mtoe in 2016. This is equivalent to 11 of the EU s gross inland consumption of fossil fuels and comparable to the fossil fuel consumption of the United Kingdom see Figure ES.1. Coal was the fuel most substituted by renewables across Europe representing 38 of all avoided fossil fuels, followed by natural gas representing 36 of all avoided fossil fuels. The reduction in petroleum products and related fuels was less pronounced because of the lower share of RES used in the transport sector. In 2017, the amount of substituted fossil fuels is estimated to have increased by 12 Mtoe to 155 Mtoe. These fossil fuel savings due to the additional use of renewable energy after 2005 helped the EU achieve an estimated gross reduction in CO 2emissions of 460 Mt CO 29.4 in 2016, compared with a counterfactual scenario in which RES consumption would have stayed at the 2005 level see Figure ES.2. This almost represents the annual GHG emissions of France. In 2017, the effect on CO 2emissions increased further, resulting in a gross emission reduction of 499 Mt CO 2a 10 gross reduction in the EU. Most of these changes took place in energy-intensive industrial sectors under the EU Emissions Trading System ETS, as the increase in renewable electricity decreased the cutive summary 7 Renewable energy in Europe 2018 Figure ES.1 Total and relative reduction in gross inland fossil fuel use per year, in 2016 Notes The absolute reduction in gross inland fossil fuel use in 2016, expressed in million tonnes of oil equivalent Mtoe, is proportional with the increase of renewable energy consumption achieved between 2005 and 2016. It represents the annual estimate for 2016; the cumulative value over the period 2005-2016 is much larger. The relative reduction in gross inland fossil fuel use is expressed as the absolute reduction over a country s total gross inland consumption of fossil fuels. Source EEA. EU-28 Absolute reduction in gross inland fossil fuel use EU-28 Relative reduction in gross inland fossil fuel use oe 1 Sweden Sweden Sweden -7.4 -32 Finland -3.4 -17 Estonia -0.6 -10 Denmark -4.2 -26 Germany -36 -12 Ireland -1.3 -9 United Kingdom -16.8 -10 Latvia -0.2 -7 Lithuania -0.7 -13 Portugal -2.4 -12 Italy -16 -11 Cyprus -0.2 -7 Poland -5.9 -6 -11.5 -9 France -12.2 -12 Spain Netherlands -2.6 -3 Romania -3 -11 Greece -2 -9 Malta -8 0.0 Belgium -3.5 -8 Czechia -3.1 -9 Austria -4.4 -16 Bulgaria -1.7 -12 Luxembourg -0.2 -5 Slovenia -0.4 -9 Hungary -1.6 -8 Slovakia -0.8 -7 Croatia -0.5 -7cutive summary 8 Renewable energy in Europe 2018 Gross avoided GHGs MtCO 2 Gross avoided GHGs -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16 UK SK MT LV SI RO PT PL NL LU LT IT IE HU HR FR FI ES EL EE CZ CY BG BE AT -12.6 MtCO 2 -19 SE -23.8 MtCO 2 -30 -132 MtCO 2 -12 DE -460 MtCO 2 -9 EU-28 DK Figure ES.2 Total and relative gross avoided GHG emissions per year in 2016 Notes The vertical axis illustrates the absolute RES effects on GHG emissions in 2016, expressed as million tonnes Mt of gross avoided CO 2emissions per country. The effect is proportional to the increase of national RES consumption between 2005 and 2016. The further up a country is situated, the higher its gross avoided GHG emissions MtCO 2 . The horizontal axis illustrates the relative impact of national RES growth since 2005 on national GHG emissions. The further to the right a coun
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