《国际能源展望2018》.pdf

www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Ination Administration Independent Statistics the personal consumption share of GDP rises to 60 by 2040, compared with 50 in the IEO2018 Reference case – China continues its large industrial investment- and export-led growth; the investment share of GDP is 51 in 2040, compared with 32 in the IEO2018 Reference case India Three cases that assume GDP will grow about 7.1/year from 2015 to 2040, compared with 6.0/year in the IEO2018 Reference case – An investment-led economy with more industrial sector investment; the investment share of GDP rises from 29 in the IEO2018 Reference case in 2040 to 38, loosely patterned after China’s recent growth – An export-led economy with more output from trade-sensitive, energy-intensive industries such as chemicals and refining; the export share of GDP increases from 23 in the IEO2018 Reference case in 2040 to 55, loosely patterned after South Korea – A personal consumption-led economy with more output from services; the personal consumption share of GDP rises from 61 in the IEO2018 Reference case in 2040 to 67, loosely based upon current U.S. levels of personal consumption Africa One case that assumes GDP will grow 5.0/year from 2015 to 2040, compared with 3.8/year in the IEO2018 Reference case Dr. Linda Capuano, CSIS IEO2018, July 2018 IEO2018 examines comparative economic growth cases in China, India, and Africa 9Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 2018 Dr. Linda Capuano, CSIS IEO2018, July 2018 China’s GDP and energy consumption growth have slowed in recent years Chinese GDP and energy consumption annual growth rate, five-year moving average 10 0 5 10 15 1983 1991 1999 2007 2015 China GDP China total primary energy consumption Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 2018 Dr. Linda Capuano, CSIS IEO2018, July 2018 Industrial sector growth is projected to result in energy consumption differences Chinese delivered energy consumption in 2040 quadrillion Btu 11 85 66 80 52 44 52 0 30 60 90 120 150 No Transition IEO2018 Reference Fast Transition all other end-use sectors industrial sector17 12 11 40 39 38 41 46 48 0 25 50 75 100 No Transition IEO2018 Reference Fast Transition mining agriculture services manufacturing construction Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 2018 Dr. Linda Capuano, CSIS IEO2018, July 2018 Small changes in the manufacturing share of total gross output drive larger changes in energy consumption sector share of total gross output in 2040 percent 12Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 2018 Dr. Linda Capuano, CSIS IEO2018, July 2018 China’s economic growth in the side cases leads to gains in its share of global energy- intensive goods production region share of global energy-intensive sector gross output in 2040 percent 13 41 35 40 15 16 16 10 11 11 7 8 7 7 7 7 20 22 20 0 25 50 75 100 No Transition IEO2018 Reference Fast Transition Rest of World United States Middle East other non-OECD Asia India ChinaSource EIA, International Energy Outlook 2018 Dr. Linda Capuano, CSIS IEO2018, July 2018 India’s per capita income and energy consumption continue to lag other major economies IEO2018 Reference case energy consumption per capita million Btu per person 2000---------2015---------2040 IEO2018 Reference case projection 14 China India Russia South Korea United States 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 GDP per capita 2010 U.S. dollars per person AfricaSource EIA, International Energy Outlook 2018 Dr. Linda Capuano, CSIS IEO2018, July 2018 Differences in energy consumption between India’s high-growth cases are small Indian energy consumption in 2040 quadrillion Btu 15 31 40 41 43 19 23 23 23 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 IEO2018 Reference Consumption-led Investment-led Export-led all other end-use sectors industrial sectorSource EIA, International Energy Outlook 2018 Dr. Linda Capuano, CSIS IEO2018, July 2018 When starting from similar levels of GDP per person, India’s energy-intensive production does not reach historic Chinese production levels until after 2035 energy-intensive manufacturing gross output 2010 U.S. dollar index, selected start year 100 16 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 China 2000–2015 India Export-led 2006–2040 2006 2000 2015 2040 2037Source IHS Markit and Oxford Economics Dr. Linda Capuano, CSIS IEO2018, July 2018 Services are the largest share of GDP for six countries that represent nearly two-thirds of African GDP 17 Country Services share Manufacturing share South Africa 71 13 Morocco 62 16 Nigeria 59 9 Egypt 52 13 Algeria 44 5 Angola 44 5Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 2018 Dr. Linda Capuano, CSIS IEO2018, July 2018 Faster economic growth in Africa leads to an increased share for the manufacturing sector and a lower share for services compared with the IEO2018 Reference case sector share of total gross output in 2040 percent 18 18 20 19 24 47 37 10 11 7 9 0 25 50 75 100 IEO2018 Reference Africa High Growth mining services construction agriculture manufacturingSource EIA, International Energy Outlook 2018 Dr. Linda Capuano, CSIS IEO2018, July 2018 Manufacturing energy consumption increases more than nonmanufacturing energy consumption when compared with the IEO2018 Reference case in 2040 industrial sector energy consumption in 2040 quadrillion Btu 19 2.2 7.9 3.9 2.7 10.9 4.9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Nonmanufacturing Nonenergy-intensive manufacturing Energy-intensive manufacturing Africa High Growth IEO2018 Reference What is surprising What is expected What are your insights Which topics would you explore more deeply Dr. Linda Capuano, CSIS IEO2018, July 2018 Key IEO2018 questions for panelists 20U.S. Energy Ination Administration home page | www.eia.gov International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Statistics database | www.eia.gov/ies To receive emails about releases related to the International Energy Outlook or other EIA publications, please subscribe at https//www.eia.gov/tools/emailupdates/. Dr. Linda Capuano, CSIS IEO2018, July 2018 For more ination 21