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Technology Roadmap Low-Carbon Transition in the Cement Industry 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060The International Energy Agency IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 7 association countries and beyond. The four main areas of IEA focus arez E ne rg y Se cu r i t y Promoting diversity, efficiency, flexibility and reliability for all fuels and energy sources;z E c on om i c D e v e l op m e n t Supporting free markets to foster economic growth and eliminate energy poverty;z E n v i ro n m e n t a l A wa r e n e ss Analysing policy options to offset the impact of energy production and use on the environment, especially for tackling climate change and air pollution; andz E n ga g em en t W o r ld w i d e Working closely with association and partner countries, especially major emerging economies, to find solutions to shared energy and environmental concerns. The Cement Sustainability Initiative CSI is a global effort by 24 major cement producers with operations in more than 100 countries who believe there is a strong business case for the pursuit of sustainable development. Collectively, these companies account for about one-third of the world’s cement production, and range in size from large multinational companies to small local producers. All CSI members have integrated sustainable development into their business strategies and operations, as they seek strong financial perance with an equally strong commitment to social and environmental responsibility. The CSI is an initiative of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development WBCSD. The CSI is one of the largest global sustainability project ever undertaken by a single industry sector. To find out more, visit www.wbcsdcement.org. CSI members CEMEX, CRH, HeidelbergCement, InterCement, LafargeHolcim, SCG Cement, Taiheiyo Cement, Titan, Votorantim Cimentos, Cementos Argos, China Resources Cement, Cimenterie Nationale, Çimsa, China National Building Material, Dalmia Bharat Cement, GCC, Orient Cement, Secil, Shree Cement, Siam City Cement, Tianrui Cement, UltraTech Cement, West China Cement and Cementos Progreso. Roadmap partners1 Foreword Awareness is growing of the urgent need to turn political statements and analytical findings into climate mitigation action that leads to a more sustainable future. We can and must change the path that we are on. Innovative low-carbon technologies will play a central role in this transition. Goal 13 of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by world leaders in September 2015, calls for urgent action to combat climate change and its impact. The Paris Agreement, negotiated in December 2015 at the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, attempts to limit the rise in global temperatures this century to less than 2°C above preindustrial levels. To spark this movement and build on a long- standing collaboration, the International Energy Agency IEA and the Cement Sustainability Initiative CSI of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development WBCSD have partnered to develop this update of the global Cement Technology Roadmap that was produced jointly in 2009 the first industry-specific roadmap. The cement industry currently represents about 7 of the carbon dioxide CO 2 emissions globally and is the third-largest industrial energy consumer. Cement companies in the CSI have been long taking action to reduce CO 2and voluntarily reporting independently verified CO 2and energy perance ination representing 21 of global cement production. The analysis for this roadmap is based on a compilation of perance data and ination related to cement production from the best available data sources worldwide, a key source being the Getting the Numbers Right database managed by CSI, which is externally verified, as well as other sources. The vision of this roadmap is based on an energy system pathway and a CO 2emissions trajectory consistent with at least a 50 chance of limiting the average global temperature increase to 2°C by 2100. In contribution to this effort, the roadmap uses a bottom-up approach to explore a possible transition pathway based on least-cost technology analysis for the cement industry to reduce its direct CO 2emissions by 24 below current levels by 2050. The outlined transition for such CO 2emissions reductions in cement production is ambitious, and the changes must be practical, realistic and achievable. The transition of the cement industry can only be attained with a supportive regulatory framework and effective and sustained investments. The roadmap outlines these policy priorities and regulatory recommendations, assesses financial needs, discusses investment stimulating mechanisms and describes technical challenges with regard to research, development and demonstration needs and goals. While this roadmap focuses on cement manufacturing, the IEA and CSI recognise the need to consider CO 2emissions reduction over the overall life cycle of cement, concrete and the built environment by working collaboratively along the whole construction value chain. For instance, by optimising the use of concrete in construction or by maximising the design life of buildings and infrastructure, further CO 2emissions savings can be realised. This roadmap aims to contribute to the required international collaborative effort among stakeholders, and to be a source of inspiration for international and national policy makers to support evidence-based decisions and regulations in support to the sustainable transition of the cement industry. Dr. Fatih Birol cutive Director International Energy Agency Philippe Fonta Managing Director, Cement Sustainability Initiative World Business Council for Sustainable Development Foreword This publication reflects the views of the International Energy Agency IEA Secretariat but does not necessarily reflect those of individual IEA member countries. The IEA makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect to the publication’s contents including its completeness or accuracy and shall not be responsible for any use of, or reliance on, the publication. 2 Technology Roadmap Low-Carbon Transition in the Cement Industry Table of contents Foreword 1 Acknowledgements 4 Key findings 5 Key actions to 2030 6 1. Introduction 8 The concrete and cement societal needs nexus 8 Roadmap objectives 8 Roadmap approach 9 Roadmap scope 10 2. Overview of cement manufacturing 12 Efforts made towards achieving low-carbon cement production 14 3. The vision 17 4. Carbon emissions reduction levers 23 Improving energy efficiency 23 Switching to alternative fuels 28 Reducing the clinker to cement ratio 32 Using emerging and innovative technologies 36 Spotlight Alternative binding materials for cements 41 5. Policy, finance and international collaboration Actions and milestones 47 Policy priorities and regulatory frameworks 47 Investment requirements and financial support 48 International collaboration 51 Roadmap action plan 52 Annex 54 Roadmap modelling framework and ology 54 Regional definitions 55 References 57 Glossary 59 Abbreviations and acronyms 60 Units of measure 60 List of figures Figure 1. Cement manufacturing 12 Figure 2. Energy demand distribution by process step 14 Figure 3. Global cement demand intensity and population, and cement production intensity for selected regions 17 Figure 4. Cement production by region 18 Figure 5. Global direct CO 2emissions in cement production by scenario 20 Figure 6. Global final energy demand and direct CO 2intensity of cement production in the roadmap vision 2DS 213 Table of contents Figure 7. Global cumulative CO 2emissions reductions by applying the roadmap vision 2DS compared to the RTS 22 Figure 8. Global aggregated thermal energy intensity of clinker and electricity intensity of cement production in the 2DS 25 Figure 9. Aggregated thermal energy intensity of clinker production and electricity intensity of cement production in the 2DS by region 26 Figure 10. Global thermal energy mix in cement in the 2DS 29 Figure 11. Regional thermal energy mix in cement in the 2DS 30 Figure 12. Global cement production and clinker to cement ratio in the 2DS 33 Figure 13. Global average estimates of cement composition 34 Figure 14. Regional clinker to cement ratio in the 2DS low-variability case 35 Figure 15. Global deployment of CO 2capture for permanent storage in the cement sector in the 2DS 39 Figure 16. Process CO 2emissions generation intensity for selected cement binding materials 43 Figure 17. Overall cumulative investments needs by scenario by 2050 49 Figure 18. Global cumulative additional investments in the roadmap vision 2DS compared to the RTS, based on the low-variability case by 2050 50 Figure 19. High-level structure of the IEA ETP cement sector model 55 List of tables Table 1. Key indicators for the global cement industry in the 2DS by 2030 7 Table 2. Key indicators for the global cement industry in the RTS and the roadmap vision 2DS 18 Table 3. Process CO 2emissions released upon calcination of raw materials by clinker compounds 42 List of boxes Box 1. Scenarios used in this Technology Roadmap 8 Box 2. Data sources and the importance of getting the numbers right 10 Box 3. Regional collaborative efforts arising from the IEA and WBCSD Cement Technology Roadmap 2009 Carbon Emissions Reductions up to 2050 16 Box 4. Exploring scenarios that are more ambitious Beyond 2DS 194 Technology Roadmap Low-Carbon Transition in the Cement Industry The authors thank the IEA Communication and Ination Office, especially Muriel Custodio, Astrid Dumond, Rebecca Gaghen, Bertrand Sadin and Therese Walsh for their support and assistance, as well as Caren Brown for editing the manuscript. Finally, the authors would like to thank the industry, government and non-government experts who attended meetings, reviewed and commented on drafts, and provided feedback and guidance. The complete list of participants and reviewers is available at the CSI and IEA websites www. wbcsdcement.org/technology and www.iea.org/ technology-roadmap/cement. For further ination on this document, please contact Araceli Fernandez Pales, IEA Tel. 33 0 1 40 57 66 83 Email araceli.fernandezpalesiea.org Yvonne Leung, WBCSD-CSI Tel. 41 0 2 28 39 31 26 Email leungwbcsd.org The Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks Directorate of the International Energy Agency IEA and the Cement Sustainability Initiative CSI of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development WBCSD jointly prepared this publication, under the lead of Araceli Fernandez IEA and Yvonne Leung CSI. Kira West from the IEA provided and support throughout the development of this roadmap. Special thanks to experts from CSI members Angeliki Benetatou, Rakesh Bhargava, Cedric de Meeus, Shrikrishna Herwadkar, Sanjay Jain, Martyn Kenny, Bernard Mathieu, Javier Merle, Hidemi Nakamura, Manuela Ojan, Kapilavai Narayana Rao, Paulo Rocha, Alexander Röder, Surya Valluri and Rob van der Meer; to experts from CSI Communication Partners Richard Leese, Claude Loréa, Nathaly Triana and Gonzalo Visedo; to experts from the CSI India Secretariat Esha Sar; and to Philippe Fonta, Managing Director of the CSI, for their and guidance. The European Cement Research Academy ECRA provided essential , including the development of associated technical papers, led by Johannes Ruppert and Volker Hoenig. From the IEA David Turk, Acting Director of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks; Simone Landolina, co-ordinator of the Technology Roadmap programme; and Cecilia Tam, Senior Energy Analyst, provided guidance and . Simon Bennett, Niels Berghout, John Dulac, Joe Ritchie and Tristan Stanley also provided insightful comments. Acknowledgements5 Cement is used to make concrete, the most consumed manufactured substance on the planet. Concrete builds homes, schools, hospitals, workplaces, transport systems and infrastructure for clean water, sanitation and energy, which are important for quality of life and social and economic wellbeing. The cement sector is the third-largest industrial energy consumer, comprising 7 of the global industrial energy use 10.7 exajoules [EJ]. Cement production involves the decomposition of limestone calcium carbonate, which represents about two-thirds of the total CO 2emissions generated in the process, with the remainder of CO 2emissions being due to combustion of fuels. Thus despite considerable progress on energy efficiency, the use of alternative fuels and clinker replacements, the sector has the second-largest share of total direct 1industrial carbon dioxide CO 2 emissions, at 27 2.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide per year [GtCO 2 / yr] in 2014. Rising global population and urbanisation patterns, coupled with infrastructure development needs, drive up the demand for cement and concrete. Global cement production is set to grow by 12-23 by 2050 from the current level. Some regions, such as People’s Republic of China and the Middle East, have excess cement production capacity, with cement production per capita levels well above the global average. Other regions, such as India and Africa, are set to increase their domestic cement production capacity to fulfil their infrastructure development needs. Direct CO 2emissions from the cement industry are expected to increase by 4 globally under the International Energy Agency IEA Reference Technology Scenario RTS 2 by 2050 despite an increase of 12 in global cement production in the same period. Realising the sustainable transition of the 2 degree Celsius °C Scenario 2DS implies a significant reduction of the global direct CO 2emissions from cement manufacture by 24 compared to current levels by 2050 still with the expected increase in global cement production. This represents cumulative emissions reductions of 7.7 GtCO 2compared to the RTS by 2050, reaching 1.7 GtCO 2 , equivalent to around 90 of current total global industrial direct CO 2emissions. Implementing this vision requires accelerated development and deployment of CO 2emissions reduction levers, supportive policy, public-private collaboration, financing mechanisms and social acceptance. 1. Direct CO 2emissions refer to emissions that are generated and released in the cement production process. 2. Please refer to Box 1 below for details on scenarios. Key findings Improving energy efficiency, switching to alternative fuels fuels that are less carbon intensive, reducing the clinker to cement rati
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