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SOLUTIONS TO INTEGRATE HIGH SHARES OF VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY JUNE 2019 A report from the International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA to the G20 Energy Transitions Working Group ETWG© IRENA 2019 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given to IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material.ISBN 978-92-9260-135-5 Citation IRENA 2019, Solutions to integrate high shares of variable renewable energy Report to the G20 Energy Transitions Working Group ETWG, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future and serves as the principal plat for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all s of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org Acknowledgements Valuable external review was provided from G20 economies as part of the G20 Energy Transitions Working Group, including the Governments of Japan and the Republic of Germany. The report was prepared by Dolf Gielen, Asami Miketa, Emanuele Taibi, Francisco Boshell, Raul Miranda and Sean Ratka at IRENA. Available for download www.irena.org/publications For further ination or to provide feedback infoirena.org Disclaimer The designations employed and the presentation of materials featured herein are provided on an “as is” basis, for inational purposes only, without any conditions, warranties or undertakings, either express or implied, from IRENA, its officials and agents, including but not limited to warranties of accuracy, completeness and fitness for a particular purpose or use of such content. The ination contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA, nor is it an endorsement of any project, product or service provider. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. 3 CONTENTS Figures .4 1. Background .5» IRENA’s ongoing work with the G20 .5» The energy transition6 2. Power-system flexibility Learning from front runners 8» Experience in Italy .9» Experience in China 10» Experience in Germany 12» IRENA’s Knowledge Framework 13 3. The next stage Unlocking further flexibility through innovation.14» Three innovation trends .15» Four dimensions of innovation 16» Innovation for a cost-effective transition .17 4. Renewable electrification Driving the transition of energy services 19» Unlocking synergies between electrification and renewables .19» Challenges ahead .20» Implications for network investment .21» Renewable hydrogen 22 5. Way forward Eight-step policy plan 23 References 264 FIGURES Figure 1 Annual energy-related CO 2emissions in the reference case and reductions in the REmap case, with contribution by sector, 2010–2050 6 Figure 2 Electricity consumption by sector, electricity generation mix and power generation installed capacity GW by fuel, REmap Case, 2016–2050 .7 Figure 3 Power system flexibility enablers in the energy sector 8 Figure 4 Energy flow dominant-paths in Italy .9 Figure 5 Variable renewable generation and energy curtailment in Italy . 10 Figure 6 Wind curtailment in North-eastern Chinese provinces in the first quarters of 2017 and 2018 10 Figure 7 Investment alert plat for wind farms in 2018 11 Figure 8 Flexibility in current and future power systems 14 Figure 9 Three innovation trends combining to increase flexibility . 15 Figure 10 Four dimensions of innovation . 16 Figure 11 Flexibility solutions .18 Figure 12 Electrification of end-use sectors 21 Figure 13 Cost of producing hydrogen with electricity . 225 1. BACKGROUND IRENA’s ongoing work with the G20 Over the past five years, the International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA has been committed to supporting the work of the G20 by providing guidance on how to effectively, and substantially, increase the share of renewables in electricity systems to accelerate the ongoing energy transition. Most recently, the 2019 Japanese G20 presidency requested that IRENA draft a report summarising the current state and outlook of solutions to integrate high shares of variable renewable energy VRE – namely solar PV and wind power – in electricity systems. IRENA has engaged with the G20 on the subject of the energy transition since 2015 when, during the Turkish presidency, IRENA was selected as the central co-ordinator of the G20 Toolkit for Renewable Energy Deployment, in co-operation with other international organisations. At the 2016 meeting in Beijing, presided over by the Chinese G20 presidency, energy ministers reviewed the progress made since the implementation of the Toolkit and adopted the G20 Voluntary Action Plan on Renewable Energy with the aim of substantially increasing the share of renewable energy by 2030. During the German presidency in 2017, IRENA was requested to analyse options for decarbonising the energy sector to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement, and to explore related investment implications. The Climate and Energy Action Plan for Growth attached to the 2017 G20 Leaders’ Declaration also called upon IRENA to support the G20’s efforts by providing a regular update on the energy sector’s global transition and further investment needs. The 2018 Argentinian presidency highlighted the commitment of the G20 to working towards lower greenhouse gas GHG emissions and increased innovation in the field of cleaner, more sustainable energy systems. As part of active support of the G20 and the ongoing analysis of options for decarbonising the energy sector, IRENA produced an analytical report for the Argentinian presidency, Opportunities to accelerate national energy transitions through advanced deployment of renewables IRENA, 2018a, that highlighted the importance of accelerated VRE power system integration. This present report, requested by the 2019 Japanese G20 presidency, aims to summarise the most up-to-date ination on a select range of innovative solutions to integrate VRE in power systems, drawing on IRENA’s recent and extensive analysis on the topic.6 Figure 1 Annual energy-related CO 2emissions in the reference case and reductions in the REmap Case, with the contribution by sector, 2010–2050 Gt/yr The energy transition To mitigate climate change, the global energy system must undergo a profound transation from one that is largely based on fossil fuels to one that enhances efficiency, is based on renewable energy and pursues extensive electrification while increasing system flexibility. Renewables and energy efficiency, boosted by electrification, can provide 90 of the necessary reductions in energy-related carbon emissions to limit the global rise in temperature to well below 2°C by 2050 Figure 1. Indeed, renewables and electrification alone would provide 75 of the reductions needed. Source IRENA 2019a. Note “Renewables” implies deployment of renewable technologies in the power sector wind, solar PV, etc. and end-use direct applications solar thermal, geothermal, biomass. “Energy efficiency” includes efficiency measures deployed in end-use applications in the industrial, buildings and transport sectors e.g., improving insulation of buildings or installing more efficient appliances and equipment. “Electrification” denotes electrification of heat and transport applications, such as deploying heat pumps and electric vehicles EVs. The energy transition is being driven by new technological innovation, coupled with policy imperatives relating to sustainable development and the need to combat climate change. Clean electricity will be the principal source of power, combined with “smart” digital technologies that make it possible to take full advantage of the growing amounts of low-cost renewable power. This vision unlocks the potential synergies between major increases in the use of electricity and renewable power generation by co -ordinating their deployment and use across key sectors – power, transport, industry and buildings. In a highly digitalised future with strong global climate policies, electrification of energy services will be pervasive. Electric or fuel cell vehicles would largely replace fossil-fuelled cars and trucks, and heat pumps and electric boilers would substitute for oil and gas furnaces in buildings and industry. Electricity from renewables could also be used to make hydrogen, synthetic gas or liquids for applications where direct electrification is difficult. d fio d v 7 o o duo Bud T o D H Po Idu Bud T o D H Po Idu Au - dOˆ o,1-/ 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 215 22 21 225 23 235 24 245 257 Figure 2 Electricity generation mix TWh/yr and power generation installed capacity GW by fuel, REmap Case, 2016–2050 Source IRENA 2019a. Note 24 of electricity consumption in 2016 and 86 in 2050 is sourced from renewable sources. CSP refers to concentrated solar power. 20 764 TWh 20 764 TWh 39 365 TWh 39 365 TWh 47 056 TWh 47 056 TWh G W CSP S PV H x N N C 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 2 49 49 49 49 40 40 35 35 37 37 22 22 9 9 43 43 6 044 8519 2x 86 RE Transing our energy system into one dominated by renewable power comes with some challenges, as high variable renewable energy VRE shares increase system requirements for balancing supply and demand. Wind and solar PV energy are expected to substantially increase by 2050, from their current shares of 7 and 3, to 35 and 25, respectively IRENA, 2019a. Figure 2 illustrates how, under the REmap case 1 , wind and solar power will dominate growth in renewable-based electricity generation. By 2050, solar power, with 8 500 GW installed capacity, and wind, with 6 000 GW, would account for three-fifths of global electricity generation. These are variable energy sources with fluctuating generation; therefore, addressing resource variability is crucial for their sustainable and cost- effective deployment, for which system innovations are required to achieve the requisite flexibility. More about the ongoing energy transation can be found in IRENA’s recently released 2019 edition of Global Energy Transation A roadmap to 2050 IRENA, 2019a. 1 The Renewable Energy Roadmap REmap case is a scenario which includes the deployment of low-carbon technologies, based largely on renewable energy and energy efficiency, to achieve a transation of the global energy system that limits the rise in global temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The scenario is focused on energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, which make up around two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions.8 2. POWER-SYSTEM FLEXIBILITY LEARNING FROM FRONT RUNNERS To effectively manage large-scale VRE, flexibility must be harnessed in all sectors of the energy system, from power generation to transmission and distribution systems, storage both electrical and thermal and, increasingly, flexible demand demand-side management and sector coupling; Figure 3. In conventional power systems, flexibility has mainly been provided by generation, with dispatchable generators adjusting their output to follow demand and, if available, pumped hydro dealing with inflexible baseload and reducing the need for power plants to cover peak demand. Important progress has been made in recent years towards increasing the flexibility of conventional power plants, as the demand side was largely unresponsive and provided very little flexibility. Emerging innovations are not only further increasing flexibility on the supply side but are now also widening the availability of flexibility to all segments of the power system, including grids and the demand side. They offer a broader portfolio of solutions that can be combined and optimised to reduce costs and maximise system benefits. Various effective measures exist to integrate renewables at low costs by improving operational practice and electricity market design, as seen in a number of different countries. At a certain stage in the transition, more capital-intensive measures will be needed. These experiences have also revealed that challenges related to VRE integration e.g. increasing curtailment levels and reserve requirements do not emerge if the right procedures are proactively put in place. T echnical solutions to VRE integration challenges almost always exist, so the limitation is largely economic rather than technical. Therefore, economically speaking, the maximum ideal level of VRE integration economic carrying capacity is the one at which any additional cost outweighs the benefits of the additional VRE unit and, therefore, no additional VRE capacity is economically desirable NREL, 2015. The IRENA FlexTool is a detailed but user-friendly tool developed by IRENA to address Member States’ power system flexibility needs at a national or regional level. The IRENA FlexTool analyses system operations and assesses whether the power system is sufficiently flexible. If not, the FlexT ool can identify a least-cost mix of flexibility investments. The tool has already been successfully applied to four different countries Colombia, Panama, Thailand and Uruguay 2 . 2 The IRENA FlexTool can be freely downloaded from the IRENA website along with a user manual and an overview for policy makers IRENA, 2018b. Figure 3 Power system flexibility enablers in the energy sector Source IRENA
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