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GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSATION 2019 EDITION A ROADMAP TO 2050© IRENA 201 9 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. ISBN 978-92-9260-121-8 Citation IRENA 2019, Global energy transation A roadmap to 2050 2019 edition, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Available for download www.irena.org/publications For further ination or to provide feedback, please contact IRENA at infoirena.org About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future, and serves as the principal plat for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all s of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org Acknowledgements Valuable external review was provided by Falk Boemeke and Bilun Mueller BMWi, Morgan Bazilian Colorado School of Mines, Ruud Kempener European Commission, Brian Motherway and Joe Ritchie IEA, Roberto Schaeffer UFRJ and Sven Teske University of Sydney. The authors would like to extend a special thanks to Deger Saygin SHURA Energy Transition Centre. Valuable review and feedback were provided by IRENA colleagues Ahmed Abdel-Latif, Nicole Bockstaller, Francisco Boshell, Yong Chen, Paul Komor, Neil MacDonald, Raul Miranda, Thomas Nikolakakis, Elizabeth Press, Jeffrey Skeer, Emanuele Talbi and Michael Taylor. The editors of this report were John Carey and Lisa Mastny. This report was prepared by the REmap team at IRENA’s Innovation and Technology Centre IITC and by the Policy Team at IRENA’s Knowledge, Policy and Finance Centre KPFC. The REmap analysis sections were authored by Dolf Gielen, Ricardo Gorini, Nicholas Wagner, Rodrigo Leme, Laura Gutierrez, Gayathri Prakash and Elisa Asmelash with additional contributions and support from Luis Janeiro, Giacomo Gallina, Guilia Vale and Lorenzo Sani. The socio-economic analysis and sections were authored by Xavier Garcia Casals, Rabia Ferroukhi, Bishal Parajuli, Michael Renner, Celia García-Baños and Jinlei Feng. The macro-economic modelling E3ME results were provided by Eva Alexandri, Unnada Chewpreecha, Mary Goldman, Sophie Heald, Jon Stenning, Hector Pollitt, and other team members of Cambridge Econometrics, UK. IRENA is grateful for the generous support of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy of Germany, which made the publication of this report a reality. Disclaimer This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsi- bility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein. The ination contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of the Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed, and the presentation of material herein, do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. 2A Renewable Energy Roadmap FOREWORD The global energy transation is happening, driven by the dual imperatives of limiting climate change and fostering sustainable growth. An unprecedented decline in renewable energy costs, new opportunities in energy efficiency, digitalisation, smart technologies and electrification solutions are some of the key enablers behind this trend. At the same time, the energy transation must happen much faster. To meet global climate objectives, the deployment of renewables must increase at least six-fold compared to current government plans. This would require the impressive progress that we are already witnessing in the power sector to accelerate even further, while efforts to decarbonise transport and heating would need to be stepped-up significantly. Electrification is emerging as a key solution for reducing emissions but only if paired with clean electricity, which increasingly can be sourced at the lowest cost from renewable energy. The share of electricity in total energy use must increase to almost 50 by 2050, up from 20 today. Renewables would then make up two-thirds of energy consumption and 86 of power generation. Renewable electricity paired with deep electrification could reduce CO 2emissions by 60, representing the largest share of the reductions necessary in the energy sector. Fortunately, this shift is also a path of opportunity. It would enable faster economic growth, create more jobs, and improve overall social welfare. Reducing human healthcare costs, environmental damages and subsidies would bring annual savings by 2050 of between three and seven times the additional annual costs of the transition. By 2050, the energy transation would provide a 2.5 improvement in GDP and a 0.2 increase in global employment, compared to business as usual. However, climate damages will lead to significant socio- economic losses. Putting in place policies that ensure a just and fair transition will maximise the benefits for different countries, regions and communities as well as address inequalities. Transing the global energy system will also enhance affordable and universal energy access and improve energy security. While timely action would strand assets of over USD 7.7 trillion worth of energy infrastructure that is tied to today’s polluting energy technologies, further delays would risk to significantly increase this amount. The world’s choices today will be crucial to reaching a sustainable energy and climate safe future. The Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement create the framework for the coordination and further acceleration of global efforts to advance the energy transation. The global pathway outlined in this report to achieve this needs to be matched by transative action on the ground to ensure energy systems are fit for the renewable energy age, align energy policies with climate objectives, unlock investments, scale-up renewable energy projects, and strengthen local capacities. These priorities will be at the heart of IRENA’s efforts in the period ahead, in working in partnership with the multilateral system, institutional and financial as well as engaging with the private sector, to support countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future. I hope that this report provides a catalyst for high ambition matched with decisive action on the ground to advance an inclusive, fair and economically, socially and environmentally beneficial, energy transation. Francesco La Camera Director-General, IRENA FOREWORD 3In 2017, IRENA released its first report focused on long-term decarbonisation and on the technical feasibility and socio-economic benefits of a global energy transition IEA and IRENA, 2017. In 2018 a second report was released IRENA, 2018a, which expanded on the implications of the energy transition and detailed the global level of investment that is needed, while also providing a deeper view on key transition needs by sector and further insights into the socio-economic implications. This 2019 edition updates IRENA’s analysis of key countries and regions, and it presents a deepened perspective on electrification with renewable energy – the key enabling solution of the energy transition. The report also details new findings related to the costs, subsidies and investments needed for the transition. IRENA’s socio-economic footprint analysis delves into the implications of the transition, providing footprint measurement in terms of GDP, jobs and welfare. A discussion of the socio-economic implications of carbon taxation is presented. Climate damages have been included into the macroeconomic analysis, bringing about important socio-economic consequences. The need for holistic employment and just transition policies is highlighted by analyzing the implications of the transition on whole-economy and energy sector jobs. The focus also has been strengthened on how high shares of variable renewable energy VRE can be integrated into energy systems. In addition to discussion on the role of electrification, solutions for decarbonising heating, cooling and transport demand are also presented. THIS REPORT FOCUSES ITS ANALYSIS ON TWO PATHWAYS FOR THE GLOBAL ENERGY SYSTEMReference Case This scenario considers current and planned policies of countries. It includes commitments made in Nationally Determined Contributions and other planned targets. It presents a perspective based on governments’ current projections and energy plans.REmap Case This scenario includes the deployment of low-carbon technologies, based largely on renewable energy and energy efficiency, to generate a transation of the global energy system that limits the rise in global temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The scenario is focused on energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, which make up around two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions. THIS REPORT AND ITS FOCUS 4This report also benefits from other work-streams within IRENA and incorporates s and recommendations from the following underlying studies and analyses Innovation landscape for a renewable-powered future IRENA, 2019b – This report provides solutions to integrate variable renewables. It explains how innovations in technology, market design, business models and system operation are being combined to create solutions suitable for a wide range of power systems and provides a clear framework to support decision making. It is complemented by 30 innovation briefs. Electrification with renewables IRENA, 2019c – This report analyses the need for a vast expansion of renewables, for smarter and more flexible electricity grids, and for increases in the numbers of vehicles and other products and processes that run on electricity. A new world The geopolitics of the energy transation IRENA, 2019d – This report analyses the geopolitical implications of the global energy transation driven by renewables. It is the culmination of 10 months of deliberations by the Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy Transation. Power system flexibility for the energy transition IRENA, 2018b, 2018c – In this study, IRENA’s FlexTool, ology and case studies are used to explore technical solutions to boost power system flexibility to accommodate high shares of VRE, including stronger transmission and distribution systems, storage capacity, demand-side management, etc., Planning for the renewable future Long-term modelling and tools to expand variable renewable power in emerging economies IRENA, 2017a – This report ins decision makers, energy planners and technical practitioners by providing an overview of key long- term issues and concerns around the large-scale integration of variable renewables into the power grid, specifically with a catalogue of practical modelling ologies for VRE for long-term scenario planning. Cost analysis IRENA, 2018d – The IRENA Renewable Cost Database is the world’s largest dataset on power generation projects, power purchase agreements and tender results. 1The database provides new insights into trends in the costs and perance of renewables. It includes data on 1 334 gigawatts GW of projects and 393 GW of auction data. It covers around half of all renewable capacity added to 2017 and a large share of new capacity added worldwide e.g., 59 of new capacity additions in 2017. Socio-economic benefits of renewable energy deployment – This collection of reports highlights numerous socio-economic benefits of renewable energy developments, including economic growth, job creation, access to energy, human health improvement and overall welfare enhancement. 2 1 For more ination on IRENA’s cost database, please visit https//www.irena.org/costs. 2 Socio-economic series of publications are available at https//www.irena.org/publications/Our-CollectionsSocio_Economic_Benefits. THIS REPORT AND ITS FOCUS Planning for the renewable future Long-term modeLLing and tooL s to expand variabL e renewabL e power in emerging economies Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 RENEWABLE ENERGY BENEFITS MEASURING THE ECONOMICS 5ABBREVIATIONS °C degrees Celsius bcm billion cubic metres bln billion CCS carbon capture and storage CO 2carbon dioxide CSP Concentrated Solar Power DH district heat EJ exajoule EV electric vehicle G20 Group of Twenty GDP gross domestic product GJ gigajoule Gt gigatonne GW gigawatt GWh gigawatt-hour IEA International Energy Agency IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency kWh kilowatt-hour LCOE levelised cost of energy m 2square metre mln million Mt megatonne Mtce megatonne of coal equivalent Mtoe million tonnes of oil equivalent MW megawatt MWh megawatt-hour NDC Nationally Determined Contribution OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development ppt percentage point PV photovoltaic REmap renewable energy roadmap analysis by IRENA SDG Sustainable Development Goal t tonne TFEC total final energy consumption toe tonne of oil equivalent TPES total primary energy supply TWh terawatt-hour UN United Nations UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change US United States of America USD United States dollar VRE variable renewable energy WMO World Meteorological Organization yr year The visualisation illustrates the changes witnessed in temperatures across the globe over the past century and more. The colour of each stripe represents the temperature of a single year, ordered from the earliest available data at each location to now. The colour scale represents the change in global temperatures covering 1.35°C. Annual global temperatures from 1850-2017 Warming Stripes, by Ed Hawkins, climate scientist in the National Centre for Atmospheric S
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