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RENEWABLE ENERGY AUCTIONS STATUS AND TRENDS BEYOND PRICE PRELIMINARY FINDINGS1. Introduction .3» About the ongoing study and the present brief 3 2. Recent trends in renewable energy auctions .4» 2.1. Global overview and trends .4» 2.2. Regional trends 6» 2.3. Price trends .7 3. Ensuring timely project completion 11» 3.1. Bidding stage .12» 3.2. Contracting stage 13» 3.3. Construction stage 14» 3.4. Operational stage 15» 3.5. Auction design elements to ensure timely project delivery .15 4. Integrating solar and wind power 16» 4.1. Project-based strategy .17» 4.2. Quantity-based strategy .18» 4.3. Adjustment-based strategy .19» 4.4. Price-based strategy 20» 4.5. Product-based strategy.21 5. Supporting a just and inclusive energy transition .22» 5.1. Inclusion of small and new players23» 5.2. Development of local industries .25» 5.3. Local job creation 26» 5.4. Subnational development and community benefits 27 6. Conclusions .28 7. References .29 CONTENTSPRELIMINARY FINDINGS 3 As the renewable energy sector matures, policies must be adapted to reflect changing market conditions. The falling cost of new technologies, the growing prence of variable renewables in the power system, and greater emphasis in policy toward economic, social and environmental objectives alter the conditions for new market entrants and new power generation projects. One important trend has been the increasing use of auctions, as policy makers seek to procure renewables-based electricity at the lowest price while fulfilling other objectives. The International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA produced its first study on auctions in 2012. Renewable Energy Auctions in Developing Countries highlighted key lessons from countries that had implemented auctions, namely Brazil, China, Morocco, Peru and South Africa IRENA, 2013. Renewable Energy Auctions A Guide to Design, published in 2015, advised policy makers on the implications of various approaches to designing auctions IRENA, 2015 and has served as a basis for auction guidelines issued by development banks and related organisations, such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the Energy Community Secretariat EBRD and EnCS, 2018. Four years after its first report on the topic – and amid record-breaking low prices for solar and wind power resulting from auctions – IRENA published Renewable Energy Auctions Analysing 2016, which analysed the factors behind the low prices, including aspects of auction design IRENA, 2017a. In 2018, IRENA analysed auctions in South Africa, Uganda and Zambia in Renewable Energy Auctions Cases from sub-Saharan Africa IRENA, 2018a. Collectively, IRENA’s studies have provided an invaluable reference for renewable energy auction design around the world. ABOUT THE ONGOING STUDY AND THE PRESENT BRIEF This brief – produced for IRENA’s 17th Council in June 2019 – outlines preliminary findings from IRENA’s next major study of auctions, provisionally entitled Renewable Energy Auctions Status and Trends Beyond Price. A focus of the study will be how to design auctions to achieve objectives beyond price discovery. Auctions designed in innovative ways can help to achieve specific country goals, beyond solely procuring electricity at the lowest price. These goals might include integrating higher shares of variable renewable energy into the grid; ramping up solar and wind power, in particular; ensuring greater participation of communities or other new and small players; and maximising the socio-economic benefits of renewables. Alongside such diverse aims, ensuring timely project completion remains a paramount objective. The findings are presented here with several aims to highlight key elements of design needed to achieve specific objectives beyond price; to stimulate discussion among experts and policy makers on successful practices in auction design and implementation, particularly practices that could be replicated more widely; and to invite IRENA’s worldwide membership to provide ination on the types of support they may require in the design and implementation of their future renewable energy auctions. 1. INTRODUCTION RENEWABLE ENERGY AUCTIONS STATUS AND TRENDS BEYOND PRICE 4 2.1 GLOBAL OVERVIEW AND TRENDS In the 2017-2018 period, around 50 countries used auctions to procure renewables-based electricity, raising the number of countries that have ever held an auction for renewables to 100 by 2019 REN21, 2004 - 2019. Almost half of the 50 countries had no previous experience with auctions herein referred to as newcomers; they were likely driven by the reported success of auctions in other markets in attaining low prices. The use of auctions continues to rise, owing chiefly to their ability to reveal competitive prices and the flexibility in their design and their susceptibility to be tailored to fit country-specific conditions and objectives. Most renewable energy auctions still focus on mature power-generation technologies. An estimated total volume of 97.5 gigawatts GW of electricity was auctioned in 2017-2018, with solar photovoltaic PV and onshore wind accounting for more than half and almost a third, respectively, of the total volume Figure 1. Offshore wind has seen a substantial increase in volume, and auctions for concentrated solar power CSP have recently been held in new countries. 2. RECENT TRENDS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY AUCTIONS Figure 1 Share of the total volume auctioned in 2017-2018, by technology Note PV photovoltaic, CSP concentrated solar power PRELIMINARY FINDINGS 5 Figure 2 shows the breakdown by region and technology of auctions carried out between January 2017 and December 2018. Solar PV was the most widely auctioned technology. Nearly half of all solar PV auctions took place in South and East Asia and the Pacific, with most of the balance occurring in Europe. Solar PV is becoming competitive with traditional energy sources in these regions owing to large endowments of solar resources and the falling cost of technology. China awarded 5 GW of solar PV at an average price of USD 67.8/MWh 1in a total of 10 auctions Climatescope, 2018. The Philippines received the lowest bid of USD 43.9/MWh 2for a 50 MW auction Billini, 2018. Onshore wind was auctioned primarily in Europe, followed by South and East Asia and the Pacific, driven by the richness of wind resources in these regions. Germany alone auctioned more than 6 GW in seven rounds during the period at an average price of USD 57.17 MWh. 3Offshore wind auctions saw considerable uptake in Central and Western Asia, led by the announcement of a 1.2 GW auctions in Turkey Tisheva, 2018 4 . Biomass auctions were concentrated in Europe and the Americas. Argentina, for example, awarded 143 MW of biomass at an average price of USD 106.7/MWh under Round 2 of Argentina’s RenovAr program Yaneva et al. 2018. CSP was auctioned mainly in Central and Western Asia, specifically in the United Arab Emirates UAE. Dubai awarded 700 MW at a price of USD 73/MWh DEWA, 2018. A closer look at regional trends indicates a concentration of newcomers in Africa and Western and Central Asia, while other regions are gaining experience in the use of auctions and experimenting with innovative designs to meet objectives such as integrating growing shares of variable renewable energy and maximising the socio-economic benefits of projects. 1 1 USD 6.3 RMB on average in 2018 2 1 USD 53.28 PHP in August 2018 3 1 USD 0.879995 EUR on average in 2017 and 2018 4 The 1.2 GW offshore wind auction in Turkey was later cancelled Figure 2 Breakdown of auctions carried out between January 2017 and December 2018, by region and technology GW Note PV photovoltaic, CSP concentrated solar power Bg y B O w O w V RENEWABLE ENERGY AUCTIONS STATUS AND TRENDS BEYOND PRICE 6 2.2 REGIONAL TRENDS Additional countries in Africa, Asia, and the Pacific adopted auctions in 2017-2018, with a focus on solar PV and onshore wind. Europe remains focused on technology-specific auctions for large- scale projects, while Latin America continues to pioneer and innovate in auction designs, with a continued preference for technology neutrality. Most of the African countries that held auctions in 2017-2018 are newcomers. Their selection of auctions to support their energy transition is driven principally by two characteristics of auctions 1 their potential for price discovery; and 2 the ease with which they can be tailored to a particular context or policy purpose. Along these lines, the positive experience that pioneers such as Morocco, South Africa and Zambia have had, provide many lessons that can be shared IRENA, 2013 and 2018. Auctions in Africa were dominated by solar PV Figure 3, with Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Zambia playing the major roles. Most countries in the Americas have considerable experience with auctions. In Latin America, Brazil and Peru were early adopters; more recently, Argentina, Chile and Mexico have joined the trend of innovating with auction designs. Driven by the success of auctions in neighbouring countries and the conducive structure of its power market, Colombia is the latest country to adopt this instrument. Canada and the United States of America continue using auctions, with increased scope at the subnational level. In terms of technology, the availability of biomass Brazil, hydro Brazil and biogas Argentina allows for a variety of technologies in auctions in the Americas Figure 3. Across the Asian continent, countries’ experience with auctions is varied. In terms of technology, the focus is on onshore and offshore wind, dominated by Turkey’s 1 GW auction, followed by solar PV Figure 3. Most countries in Central and Western Asia are newcomers, but Jordan, Kazakhstan and the UAE have significant experience. Auctions in the Emirates of Abu Dhabi and Dubai are setting the pace for replication in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, notably for CSP IRENA, 2019a. The increased adoption of renewable energy auctions in a region with abundant fossil fuel resources demonstrates the potential of the instrument to result in competitive prices when designed properly. South and East Asia and the Pacific also contain dynamic and heterogeneous markets with a diverse mix of newcomers and countries with established auction experience. Efforts to fuel economic growth have encouraged many newcomers in South and East Asia seeking to take advantage of abundant solar resources and cost competitive PV technology. Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam are good examples IRENA, 2018b. Japan has also adopted auctions in an effort to reduce the cost of support for solar PV. Meanwhile, China and India, the region’s renewable giants, have been holding at least ten renewable auctions per year. In terms of technology, the region is mainly focused on solar PV, followed by onshore wind and, recently, a boom in offshore wind Figure 3. In Europe, auctions were adopted by a large number of newcomers in 2017-2018, including Contracting Parties of the Energy Community e.g. Albania and Montenegro, as well as by countries with extensive experience with auctions e.g. Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain. Contracting Parties to the Energy Community, like the Member states of the European Union, are required to follow the European Commission’s Guidelines on State Aid for Environmental Protection and Energy for 2014-20, which establish auctions as the main instrument of support. The Guidelines are characterised by competition between renewable technologies Figure 3 and assignment to bidders of a larger share of project risks.PRELIMINARY FINDINGS 7 Figure 3 Renewable energy auctions Capacity auctioned by region and technology, 2017-2018 GW Figure 4 Global average prices resulting from auctions, 2010-18 Note PV photovoltaic, CSP concentrated solar power w y w V g 2.3 PRICE TRENDS While prices for solar PV continued to fall in 2018, onshore wind took an interesting turn. Both technologies showed a downward price trend from 2010 to 2017, but the price decrease for solar PV was more marked, reflecting the greater maturity of onshore wind technology at the start of the period. The global average prices dropped from around USD 241 to USD 66/MWh for solar PV -73, while onshore wind prices dropped from around USD 79 to USD 46/MWh -36. Between 2017 and 2018, solar PV prices continued to fall, albeit at a slower pace, reaching USD 62/MWh in 2018. Onshore wind prices edged slightly upward, reaching USD 55/MWh. Figure 4 illustrates global average price results for solar PV and onshore wind auctions carried out between January 2010 and December 2018. SD/Mh S SD/Mh SD/MhRENEWABLE ENERGY AUCTIONS STATUS AND TRENDS BEYOND PRICE 8 As analysed in IRENA’s Renewable Energy Auctions Analysing 2016, many factors shape the prices that emerge from auctions. They can be grouped into four categories 1 country-specific conditions such as resource availability and the costs of finance, land and labour; 2 the degree of investor confidence clear targets, credible off-taker; 3 other policies related to renewable energy grid policies, priority dispatch, local content rules; and 4 the design of the auction itself, taking into consideration the trade-offs between obtaining the lowest price and achieving other objectives Figure 5. Box 1 presents IRENA’s updated framework of auction design and summarises the various design elements in each category. Figure 5 Factors that affect the price resulting from auctions h G fi C h -k v h v k h h h v R h v j h fi v R j G Rk
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