《2019风的未来》报告.pdf

FUTURE OF WINDDeployment, investment, technology, grid integration and socio-economic aspectsA Global Energy Transation paper © IRENA 2019Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material.ISBN 978-92-9260-155-3Citation IRENA 2019, Future of wind Deployment, investment, technology, grid integration and socio-economic aspects A Global Energy Transation paper, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.This document presents additional findings from Global Energy Transation A roadmap to 2050 2019 edition available for download from www.irena.org/publications. For further ination or to provide feedback, please contact IRENA at infoirena.org.About IRENAThe International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA is an intergovernmental organisation that serves as the principal plat for co-operation, a centre of excellence, a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge, and a driver of action on the ground to advance the transation of the global energy system. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all s of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity.AcknowledgementsThis report benefited from and review of the following experts Elbia Gannoum and Selma Bellini ABEEólica – Brazil Wind Energy Association, Kaare Sandholt China National Renewable Energy Centre, Qin Haiyan and Yu Guiyong Chinese Wind Energy Association, Lucy Craig, Jeremy Parkes and Vineet Parkhe DNV GL – Energy, Xue Han Energy Research Institute of China, Karin Ohlenforst and Feng Zhao Global Wind Energy Council, Laura Cozzi and Alberto Toril International Energy Agency, Karsten Capion Klimaraadet – The Danish Council on Climate Change, Kihwan Kim Korea Energy Economics Institute, K. Balaraman National Institute of Wind Energy – India, Jeffrey Logan and Mai Trieu National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Yuan Jiahai North China Electric Power University, Aled Moses, Øyvind Vessia and Sune Strøm Ørsted, Ntombifuthi Ntuli South African Wind Energy Association, Yasushi Ninomiya The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, Rina Bohle Zeller Vestas Wind Systems A/S, Ivan Komusanac WindEurope and Stefan Gsänger World Wind Energy Association. Valuable review and feedback were provided by IRENA colleagues Francisco Boshell, Yong Chen, Rafael De Sá Ferreira, Celia García-Baños, Rabia Ferroukhi, Gurbuz Gonul, Carlos Guadarrama, Diala Hawila, Seungwoo Kang, Rodrigo Leme, Paul Komor, Neil MacDonald, Julien Marquant, Thomas Nikolakakis, Bishal Parajuli and Michael Taylor. The editor of this report was Lisa Mastny.Contributing authors This report was developed under the guidance of Dolf Gielen and Ricardo Gorini and authored by Gayathri Prakash and Harold Anuta, with additional contributions and support from Nicholas Wagner and Giacomo Gallina. IRENA is grateful for the generous support of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy of Germany, which made the publication of this report a reality.DisclaimerThis publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein. The ination contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of the Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed, and the presentation of material herein, do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries.2FIGURES 4TABLES 7ABBREVIATIONS 8CUTIVE SUMMARY 91 ENERGY TRANSATION PATHWAYS AND WIND ENERGY 141.1 Pathways for the Global Energy Transation 141.2 The Energy Transation Rationale 151.3 Global Energy Transation The role of wind energy 172 THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF WIND MARKETS 222.1 Evolution of the wind industry 222.2 Onshore wind outlook to 2050 242.3 Offshore wind outlook to 2050 423 TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS AND INNOVATIONS TO INTEGRATE RISING SHARES OF WIND POWER GENERATION 624 SUPPLY SIDE AND MARKET EXPANSION 674.1 Current status of wind supply industry 675 SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND OTHER BENEFITS OF WIND ENERGY IN THE CONTEXT OF ENERGY TRANSATION 705.1 Wind sector employment and local value chain 705.2 Clustering with other low-carbon technologies Hybrid systems 746 ACCELERATING WIND POWER DEPLOYMENT EXISTING BARRIERS AND SOLUTIONS 75REFERENCES 83CONTENTS3FIGURESFigure ES 1. Wind roadmap to 2050 tracking progress of key wind energy indicators to achieve the global energy transation. 12Figure 1 Pressing needs and attractive opportunities are driving the transation of the world s energy system 16Figure 2. Renewables and efficiency measures, boosted by substantial electrification, can provide over 90 of necessary CO₂ emission reductions by 2050. 17Figure 3. Wind would be the largest generating source, supplying more than one-third of total electricity generation needs by 2050 19Figure 4. Comparison of scenarios for the global energy transition, with a focus on wind power generation. 20Figure 5. Wind power would contribute to 6.3 Gt of CO₂ emissions reductions in 2050, representing 27 of the overalL emissions reductions needed to meet paris climate goals. 21Figure 6 Overview of key milestones achieved by the wind industry so far since 1982. 23Figure 7 Onshore wind cumulative installed capacity would grow more than three-fold by 2030 and nearly ten-fold by 2050 relative to 2018 levels. 25Figure 8 Asia would continue to dominate global onshore wind power installations by 2050, followed by North America and Europe. 27Figure 9 Global onshore wind power additions would need to grow more than three-fold by 2030 and more than five-fold by 2050 relative to 2018 levels. 28Figure 10 Total installed cost of onshore wind projects have fallen rapidly and is expected to decline further by 2050. 33Figure 11 Total Installed cost ranges and weighted averages for onshore wind projects dropped in many country/region since 2010. 34Figure 12 The global weighted average capacity factor for new turbines has increased from 27 in 2010 to 34 in 2018 and would increase substantially in next three decades. 35Figure 13 Regional weighted average LCOE and ranges for onshore wind in 2010 and 2018. 35Figure 14 The Levelized cost of Electricity for onshore wind is already competitive now compared to all fossil fuel generation sources and would be fully competitive in a few years. 364Figure 15 LCOE and global weighted average values for onshore wind projects, 2010–2020. 37Figure 16 Scaling up onshore wind energy investment is key to accelerate the pace of global onshore wind installations over the coming decades. 38Figure 17 total investments in global onshore annual wind power deployment, including new capacity installations and replacement of end-of-lifetime capacities. 39Figure 18 Ongoing innovations and technology enhancements towards larger-capacity turbines, increased hub heights and rotor diameters would improve energy yields and reduce capital and operation costs per unit installed capacity. 40Figure 19 Offshore wind power deployment to grow gradually to nearly 1 000 GW of total installed capacity by 2050. 43Figure 20 Asia would dominate global offshore wind power installations by 2050, followed by Europe and North America. 44Figure 21 Annual offshore wind capacity additions would need to scale up more than six-fold to 28 GW in 2030 and almost ten-fold to 45 GW in 2050 from 4.5 GW added in 2018. 45Figure 22 The global weighted average installed costs for offshore wind have declined by a modest 5 Ssince 2010 and would decline greatly in the next three decades. 47Figure 23 The global weighted average capacity factor for offshore wind has increased 8 percentage points since 2010, to 43, and upcoming projects would have capacity factors up to higher range of 58 in 2030 and 60 in 2050. 49Figure 24 By 2050, the lcoe of offshore wind would be competitive, reaching lower fossil fuel ranges. 50Figure 25 LCOE and global weighted average values for offshore wind projects, 2010–2025. 51Figure 26 Global offshore annual wind power deployment total investments including new capacity installations and replacements of end-of-lifetime capacities. 52Figure 27 Investments would need to be shifted to emerging offshore wind markets such as Asia and North America followed by stable investments needed in Europe. 53Figure 28 Anticipated timing and importance of innovations in offshore wind technology. 555Figure 29 The average size of offshore wind turbines grew by a factor of 3.4 in less than two decades and is expected to grow to output capacity of 15–20 MW by 2030. 56Figure 30 Offshore Coastal wind power potential of floating offshore wind power – zoom in China 57Figure 31 Offshore wind turbine foundation technologies. 58Figure 32 Higher shares of wind power would be integrated in various G20 countries by 2050 63Figure 33 Additional investments are required in grids, generation adequacy and some flexibility measures such as storage across the entire electricity system to integrate raising shares of variable renewable sources. 64Figure 34 Power system flexibility enablers in the energy sector. 65Figure 35 The Four dimensions of innovation. 66Figure 36 In 2018, Vestas remianed as the world’s largest wind turbine supplier followed by Goldwind and Siemens-gamesa. 67Figure 37 Geared wind turbine systems continue to be the preferred turbine technology based on market size in 2018. 68Figure 38 The onshore and offshore wind industries would employ more than 3.7 million people by 2030 and more than 6 Million people by 2050. 70Figure 39 Women in STEM, NON-STEM technical and administrative jobs in the energy sector 71Figure 40 Materials required for a 50 MW onshore wind plant and a 500 MW offshore wind plant. 73Figure 41 Distribution of human resources and occupational requirements along the value chain 50 MW onshore wind, 500 MW offshore wind. 73Figure 42 Existing barriers in the wind energy sector. 75Figure 43 The policy framework for a just transition. 76 6TABLESTable 1 Offshore wind deployments and targets in countries. 46Table 2 High-potential-impact technologies in approximate order of priority. 54Table 3 Estimated floating wind potential in China for different depths and average wind power densities. 57Table 4 Technical potential for floating wind in major economies. 58Table 5 Country status and forecasts on floating offshore wind power deployment. 59Table 6 Domestic wind markets as of 2018. 69Table 7 Hybrid renewable developments in countries. 74The visualisation illustrates the changes witnessed in temperatures across the globe over the past century and more. The colour of each stripe represents the temperature of a single year, ordered from the earliest available data at each location to now. The colour scale represents the change in global temperatures covering 1.35 °C.Annual global temperatures from 1850–2017 Warming Stripes, by Ed Hawkins, climate scientist in the National Centre for Atmospheric Science NCAS at the University of Reading.7FUTURE OF WINDABBREVIATIONS°C degree CelsiusAC alternating currentCAGR compound annual growth rateCAPEX capital expenditureCMS condition monitoring systemsCO₂ carbon dioxideCSP concentrating solar powerDC direct currentDOE US Department of EnergyEU European UnionEV electric vehicleG20 Group of TwentyGBP British poundGt gigatonneGW gigawattGWEC Global Wind Energy CouncilHVAC high-voltage alternating currentHVDC high-voltage direct currentIRENA International Renewable Energy AgencyIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changekm² square kilometrekW kilowattkWh kilowatt-hourLCOE levelised cost of electricitym² square metreMW megawattMWh megawatt-hourNDC Nationally Determined ContributionsNREL US National Renewable Energy LaboratoryO IEA – World Energy Outlook Sustainable Development Scenario WEO-SDS IEA, 2018a; DNV GL, 2018; Teske, 2019; BNEF, 2018; Greenpeace, 2015 and Equinor, 2018a.The comparison also suggests that the goal of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 °C would be most achievable with lower overall energy demand total primary energy supply, while achieving the 1.5 °C target would also require significant structural and lifestyle changes. However, despite the similarities, differences can also be found in the scenarios in aspects such as the level of electrification in end-use sectors and reductions in CO₂ emissions. The divergence in results can be explained mainly by the different objectives behind the scenarios. For many, the analysis is defined by the need to reduce energy-related CO₂ emissions to limit the temperature increase to between 2 °C and 1.5 °C. Others have modelled the energy system in a more conservative business-as-usual way. With regard to the total installed capacity levels by 2050, IRENA’s REmap Case, with more than 6 000 GW of wind capacity, is in the median range compared to other energy transition scenarios. IRENA’s wind capacity projection for 2050 is well below Greenpeace’s wind capacity projection of more than 8 000 GW and Teske’s 100 renewables scenario with total wind capacity of around 7 700 GW, while higher than the World Energy Council’s projection of around 3 000 GW. zero.tab one.tabzero.tabspace.tabzero.tabzero.tabzero.tab two.tabzero.tabspace.tabzero.tabzero.tabzero.tab three.tabzero.tabspace.tabzero.tabzero.tabzero.tab four.tabzero.tabspace.tabzero.tabzero.tabzero.tab five.tabzero.tabspace.tabzero.tabzero.tabzero.tab six.tabzero.tabspace.tabzero.tabzero.tabzero.tab seven.tabzero.tabspace.tabzero.tabzero.tabzero.tab eight.tabzero.tabspace.tabzero.tabzero.tabzero.tabfive.tabpercent.tabone.tabzero.tabpercent.tabone.tabfive.tabpercent.tabtwo.tabzero.tabper