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NAVIGATING THE WAY TO A RENEWABLE FUTURE SOLUTIONS TO DECARBONISE SHIPPING SEPTEMBER 2019 Preliminary findings© IRENA 2019 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given to IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material.ISBN 978-92-9260-150-8 Citation IRENA 2019, Navigating to a renewable future Solutions for decarbonising shipping , Preliminary findings, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future and serves as the principal plat for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all s of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org Acknowledgements This report was prepared under the supervision of Dolf Gielen and authored by Gabriel Castellanos, Carlos Ruiz and Roland Roesch, with valuable support from Sean Ratka. The report benefitted from valuable feedback provided by Till Sebastian ben Brahim and Marie Münster Technical University of Denmark, Kasper Søgaard Global Maritime Forum and Carlo Raucci University College London. 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SOLUTIONS TO DECARBONISE SHIPPING 3 CONTENTS Figures.4 Tables 4 Abbreviations .5 Key messages .6 Introduction 8 Sectoral analysis 9 The transport sector 9 The shipping sector . 10 Ports and bunkering 14 Policy and regulatory framework 16 Renewable fuel pathway analysis .19 Biofuels 21 E-fuels 23» Power-to-liquids . 23» Methanol 24» Hydrogen 25» Ammonia . 26 Battery stored renewable electricity 27 Wind and solar applications 29 Overview and outlook 30 References 31NAVIGATING THE WAY TO A RENEWABLE FUTURE 4 FIGURES Figure 1 Disaggregation of global energy consumption on the transport sector 9 Figure 2 Annual CO 2emissions associated with international shipping 10 Figure 3 Total number of ships worldwide, by ship size 11 Figure 4 Gross tonnage of ships worldwide, by ship size 11 Figure 5 World fleet total number of ships, by age and size .11 Figure 6 Ship size development of various ship types .12 Figure 7 Annual fuel consumption by ship type in 2012 in thousands of tonnes kt .13 Figure 8 CO 2emissions by ship type, 2012 Mt .13 Figure 9 Share of CO 2emissions by flag state, 2013-2015 .14 Figure 10 International shipping bunkering by country, 2017 .15 Figure 11 Total life cycle GHG emissions per kWh of engine output for different fuels 19 Figure 12 Biofuel product cost projections 22 Figure 13 Schematic representation of power-to-X routes 23 Figure 14 e-Methanol product cost projections . 24 Figure 15 Hydrogen product cost projections 26 Figure 16 e-Amonia product cost projections 27 Figure 17 Energy installation costs and cycle lifetimes of battery storage technologies, 2016 and 2030 28 TABLES Table 1 Description of the main infrastructure and equipment in ports 15 Table 2 Comparison of diff erent marine fuels 20 Table 3 Applicability of biofuels by type20SOLUTIONS TO DECARBONISE SHIPPING 5 AD Anaerobic digestion Bio-DME Bio-dimethyl ether CO 2Carbon dioxide EE Energy efficiency EEDI Energy efficiency design index EJ Exajoule FAME Fatty acid methyl ester FT Fischer-Tropsch GDP Gross domestic product GHG Greenhouse gas GJ Gigajoules EJ Exajoules Gt Gigaton H 2Hydrogen gas HFO Heavy fuel oil HP Horsepower HVO Hydrotreated vegetable oil IAPP International Air Pollution Prevention IFO Intermediate fuel oil IMO International Maritime Organisation ISO International Organization for Standardization Kt Thousands of tonnes LNG Liquefied natural gas LPG Liquefied petroleum gas MARPOL Maritime pollution MDO Marine diesel oil MGO Marine gas oil MTEU Million twenty-foot equivalent units m/m Mass by mass MS Medium sized ships Mt Megaton Mtoe Millions of tonnes of oil equivalent MTEU Million twenty-foot equivalent unit NO xNitrogen oxide ODS Ozone depleting substances OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries SO xSulphur oxide SVO Straight vegetable oil SS Small sized ships TEU Twenty-foot equivalent units UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development USD United States dollar VLS Very large ships VOC Volatile organic compounds ABBREVIATIONSNAVIGATING THE WAY TO A RENEWABLE FUTURE 6 The International Monetary Fund forecasts that between 2019-2024, global GDP will grow at an average rate of 3.6 per year. Similarly, global trade volume is estimated to grow at 3.8 per year over the next five years. Under this context, in the absence of suitable mitigation policies, the International Maritime Organisation IMO states that greenhouse gas GHG emissions associated with the shipping sector could grow between 50 and 250 by 2050. In 2017, port container traffic amounted to 753 million twenty-foot equivalent units MTEUs 1of containers, this represented a 6 growth in the container throughput between 2016 and 2017, the highest growth recorded over the last five years. By the end of 2018, the global shipping fleet had a capacity of nearly 2 Gt. Some 40 of this capacity was accounted for by bulk carriers, 30 by oil tankers and 15 by container ships. Global international bunkering for shipping accounts for 8.9 exajoules EJ 2017, with 82 of these energy needs met by heavy fuel oil HFO and the remaining 18 by marine gas and diesel oil. Between 2000 and 2017, the CO 2emissions associated with the shipping sector grew at an average annual rate of 1.87. In 2017, the sector was responsible for emitting 677 megatons Mt of CO 2 . On average, the shipping sector is responsible for 3 of annual global green-house gas GHG emissions on a CO 2 -equivalent basis. International shipping represents around 9 of the global emissions associated with the transport sector. Bulk and container carriers, as well as oil and chemical tankers, represent 20 of the global shipping fleet; together these vessels are responsible for 85 of the net GHG emissions associated with the shipping sector. Seven ports are responsible for nearly 60 of the bunker fuel sales around the world, with Singapore delivering as much as 22 of today’s total bunkering. Accordingly, any shift towards the use of cleaner fuels should consider the needs for infrastructure adjustments at the main bunkering ports. Tightening regulations on sulphur oxide SO x reductions are expected to be the key driver impacting the reduction of CO 2emissions associated with the shipping sector. SO xairborne limits come into eff ect at the beginning of 2020; non-complying ships will face sanctions depending on their registration flag and docking ports. Yet actions taken to reduce SO xwill not necessarily support the CO 2reductions necessary to achieve IMO targets. There are three main routes for reducing the carbon footprint of the shipping sector improve the design of the vessels themselves to reduce their specific fuel consumption; shift from fossil fuels to other alternative fuels and means of propulsion; and improve practices during docking periods by securing cold-ironing 2 . 1 TEU Unit typically used in the shipping sector, a twenty-foot equivalent unit TEU is a shipping container whose internal dimensions measure about 20 feet long, 8 feet wide, and 8 feet tall. 2 Cold-ironing Refers to turning off vessels auxiliary engines during shore-side operations in the port area by plugging the vessels into an electricity source offered by the port authority, thus reducing airborne emissions during docking periods. KEY MESSAGESSOLUTIONS TO DECARBONISE SHIPPING 7 A shift from heavy fuel oil HFO to a clean fuel would require many actions and considerations, including» Adjustments to the refuelling structure in around 100 ports these account for 80 of global freight.» The replacement/retrofitting of around 25 000 ships. » If ammonia were picked as fuel at 18.6 gigajoules/t ammonia, 8.9 exajoules EJ bunker fuel would translate into 480 megatons Mt of ammonia – twice today’s global ammonia production volume. To achieve the IMO target of halving CO 2emissions by 2050, alternative fuels will be needed, based on renewable sources and production s, to provide low- or even zero-carbon solutions. Alternative fuel options all have diff erent advantages and disadvantages, and there is no consensus on which option is best. The fuel price and its availability will likely be the decisive factors in the choice of fuel/propulsion technology. Bunker costs can account for 24-41 of total costs with these also including container, administrative and cargo handling costs. Other decisive factors also include infrastructural adaptation costs, technological maturity and sustainability issues e.g. food security, as well as the willingness and ability to pay a premium price for low-carbon products. Some alternative fuel options, like biofuels, are ready to be used, require little to no adjustments to existing infrastructure and can have a considerable, immediate impact on emissions reduction, even as blends. Considering the current state of technology, electric ships powered by batteries are viable for short distance applications, e.g. ferries travelling up to around 95 km. Various solutions are under discussion, with no clear winner to date. On the one hand, there are various advanced liquid and gaseous biofuel options, while on the other, there are hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives, such as methanol, ammonia and power-to-liquids applications. In general, alternative fuels are not yet economically competitive. As their adoption grows and technology improves, however, they are expected to become competitive in the medium- to long- term. Any action focused on reducing GHGs by cutting down on the use of liquid fossil fuels must consider the total life cycle emissions of the alternative renewable options. This is because upstream emissions might limit or even offset the overall reductions achieved through the use of alternative fuels.NAVIGATING THE WAY TO A RENEWABLE FUTURE 8 The present analysis explores the impact of maritime shipping on CO 2emissions, the structure of the shipping sector, and key areas that need to be addressed to reduce the sector’s carbon footprint. Furthermore, this International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA paper reviews the principal, existing policy frameworks that address GHG and airborne emissions. It also looks at the potential clean fuels and renewable-based means of propulsion that can shift historical emissions trends. Overall, this initial framing analysis lays the groundwork for further work to help to create a carbon-free maritime sector. To fully decarbonise all modes of transport, three diff erent approaches are needed. The first approach is to avoid inefficient or unnecessary travel or transport. The second is to shift transport modes to the more efficient modes, and the third is to improve the technologies to make them more efficient and less polluting IRENA, 2018. These approaches are further explored throughout the document to shed light on the technology pathways that have the largest potential to reduce the environmental impact caused by the emissions of shipping sector. At present, maritime shipping represents 80-90 of international trade. With global GDP expected to grow an average of 3.6 per year between 2019-2024, global trade volume could also grow at a similar annual rate i.e. 3.8 over the next five years. Therefore, if no action is taken promptly, demand for marine fossil fuels – and thus the associated carbon emissions – will continue to grow steadily. This would challenge the decarbonisation targets set by the IMO and other private groups and make them impossible to achieve. In fact, in the absence of suitable mitigation policies, the GHG emissions associated with the shipping sector could grow between 50 and 250 by 2050 IMO, 2015. Sea transport is less carbon intensive than other s of transport, on a CO 2per tonne-km basis. Yet, due to the large volumes of freight and long distances travelled, the shipping sector has a significant impact in terms of climate change. In 2017, international shipping accounted for 677.25 Mt of CO 2 ; thus, 3 of all annual global CO 2emissions are associated with this key sector of the world’s economy. If the shipping sector’s emissions were compared to the national CO 2emissions of the largest economies, this sector would be the sixth largest country in the world for CO 2emissions Balcombe et al., 2019. Given the importance of the role that the shipping sector has in reducing global GHG emissions, in April 2018, the IMO established a target of halving the 2008 level of carbon emissions by 2050 IMO, 2018. At the same time, private stakeholders, including one of the largest shipping operators in the world, announced their intention to achieve complete decarbonisation of their operations by 2050. This would be achieved through the deployment of carbon neutral vessels, starting as soon as 2030. There is no clear-cut path to decarbonisation. Cutting CO 2emissions in half is therefore likely to require a combination of approaches, including the use of alternative fuels, upgrading of onshore infrastructure, and reducing fuel demand by improving operational perance. The shipping sector is in a strategic position to tackle climate change and could play a leading role
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