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HYDROGEN A RENEWABLE ENERGY PERSPECTIVE SEPTEMBER 2019 Report prepared for the 2 ndHydrogen Energy Ministerial Meeting in Tokyo, Japan© IRENA 2019 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given to IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material.ISBN 978-92-9260-151-5 Citation IRENA 2019, Hydrogen A renewable energy perspective , International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future and serves as the principal plat for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all s of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org Acknowledgements This report benefited from and review of experts Bart Biebuyck The Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking, FCH JU, Gerald Linke and Michael Walter German Gas and Water Association, DVGW, Harmut Krause Head of DBI and Bergakademie Freiberg, Han Feenstra Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy of the Netherlands, Frank Wouters EU-GCC Clean Energy Technology Network, Paul Lucchese IEA Hydrogen TCP and Capenergies and Tim Karlsson The International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in the Economy, IPHE. Roland Roesch, Asami Miketa, Aakarshan Vaid and Sean Ratka IRENA also provided valuable support. IRENA is grateful for the generous support of the Government of Japan. Authors Dolf Gielen, Emanuele Taibi and Raul Miranda IRENA. Available for download www.irena.org/publications For further ination or to provide feedback infoirena.org Disclaimer The designations employed and the presentation of materials featured herein are provided on an “as is” basis, for inational purposes only, without any conditions, warranties or undertakings, either express or implied, from IRENA, its officials and agents, including but not limited to warranties of accuracy, completeness and fitness for a particular purpose or use of such content. The ination contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA, nor is it an endorsement of any project, product or service provider. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. A RENEWABLE ENERGY PERSPECTIVE 3 CONTENTS Abbreviations .4 1. Overview of findings5 2. Hydrogen and renewables .7 3. Strategic considerations .9 3.1 The need for climate action now 9 3.2 Current hydrogen use and future projections 9 3.3 A shift towards production of green hydrogen . 11 3.4 A broadening field of applications 14 3.5 Fossil fuel-based hydrogen as a transition option 15 3.6 The role of gas infrastructure for renewable hydrogen . 19 3.7 The potential of clean hydrogen as a new commodity . 21 4. The role of hydrogen for decarbonisation – the hydrogen / renewable energy nexus 22 4.1 Hydrogen production as a driver for accelerated renewable energy deployment . 22 4.2 Increased power system flexibility through hydrogen production 24 4.3 Hydrogen for seasonal storage of variable renewable electricity 25 5. Competitiveness of renewable hydrogen . 26 5.1 Current hydrogen production cost 28 5.2 Hydrogen logistics cost .30 5.3 Future hydrogen supply cost 34 6. Future hydrogen and hydrogen commodity trade projections 35 6.1 Leveraging remote renewable energy resources to develop a new global commodity . 35 6.2 Electrofuels . 38 6.3 Beyond fuels Trade of energy-intensive commodities produced with hydrogen 40 Policy recommendations 41 References .44HYDROGEN 4 °C degrees Celsius ALK alkaline ATR auto-thermal reing AUD Australian dollar Btu British thermal unit CAD Canadian dollar CCS carbon capture and storage CCUS carbon capture, utilisation and storage CO carbon monoxide CO 2carbon dioxide CSP concentrating solar power DAC direct air capture DRI direct-reduced iron e-fuel electrofuel EJ exajoule EOR enhanced oil recovery EUR Euro EV electric vehicle FCEV fuel cell electric vehicle GJ gigajoule GW gigawatt H 2hydrogen HRS hydrogen refuelling station ICE internal combustion engine IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency km kilometre kW kilowatt kWh kilowatt-hour LCOE levelised cost of electricity LCOH levelised cost of hydrogen LNG liquefied natural gas MCH methyl cyclohexane MM Btu million British thermal units MOST China Ministry of Science and Technology MRV monitoring, reporting and verification Mt megatonne MW megawatt MWh megawatt-hour NDC Nationally Determined Contribution PEM proton exchange membrane PPA power purchase agreement PV photovoltaics R fossil fuel-based hydrogen production combined with carbon capture, utilisation and storage CCUS; blue hydrogen; and hydrogen from renewables green hydrogen. Green hydrogen, produced with renewable electricity, is projected to grow rapidly in the coming years. Many ongoing and planned projects point in this direction. Hydrogen from renewable power is technically viable today and is quickly approaching economic competitiveness. The rising interest in this supply option is driven by the falling costs of renewable power and by systems integration challenges due to rising shares of variable renewable power supply. The focus is on deployment and learning-by-doing to reduce electrolyser costs and supply chain logistics. This will require funding. Policy makers should also consider how to create legislative frameworks that facilitate hydrogen- based sector coupling. Important synergies exist between hydrogen and renewable energy. Hydrogen can increase renewable electricity market growth potentials substantially and broaden the reach of renewable solutions, for example in industry. Electrolysers can add demand-side flexibility. For example, European countries such as the Netherlands and Germany are facing future electrification limits in end-use sectors that can be overcome with hydrogen. Hydrogen can also be used for seasonal energy storage. Low-cost hydrogen is the precondition for putting these synergies into practice. Electrolysers are scaling up quickly, from megawatt MW- to gigawatt GW-scale, as technology continues to evolve. Progress is gradual, with no radical breakthroughs expected. Electrolyser costs are projected to halve by 2040 to 2050, from USD 840 per kilowatt kW today, while renewable electricity costs will continue to fall as well. Renewable hydrogen will soon become the cheapest clean hydrogen supply option for many greenfield applications. Blue hydrogen has some attractive features, but it is not inherently carbon free. Fossil fuels with CCUS require carbon dioxide CO 2 monitoring and verification and certification to account for non- captured emissions and retention of stored CO 2 . Such transparency is essential for global hydrogen commodity trade. 1. OVERVIEW OF FINDINGSHYDROGEN 6 Development of blue hydrogen as a transition solution also faces challenges in terms of production upscaling and supply logistics. Development and deployment of CCUS has lagged compared to the objectives set in the last decade. Additional costs pose a challenge, as well as the economies of scale that favour large projects. Public acceptance can be an issue as well. Synergies may exist between green and blue hydrogen deployment, for example economies of scale in hydrogen use or hydrogen logistics. A hydrogen-based energy transition will not happen overnight. Hydrogen will likely trail other strategies such as electrification of end-use sectors, and its use will target specific applications. The need for a dedicated new supply infrastructure may limit hydrogen use to certain countries that decide to follow this strategy. Therefore, hydrogen efforts should not be considered a panacea. Instead, hydrogen represents a complementary solution that is especially relevant for countries with ambitious climate objectives. Per unit of energy, hydrogen supply costs are 1.5 to 5 times those of natural gas. Low-cost and highly efficient hydrogen applications warrant such a price difference. Also, decarbonisation of a significant share of global emissions will require clean hydrogen or hydrogen-derived fuels. Currently, significant energy losses occur in hydrogen production, transport and conversion. Reducing these losses is critical for the reduction of the hydrogen supply cost. Dedicated hydrogen pipelines have been in operation for decades. Transport of hydrogen via existing and refurbished gas pipelines is being explored. This may reduce new infrastructure investment needs and help to accelerate a transition. However, equipment standards need to be adjusted, which may take time. Whether the way ahead involves radical natural gas replacement or gradually changing mixtures of natural gas and hydrogen mixtures is still unclear. A better understanding is needed. While international hydrogen commodity shipping is being developed, another opportunity that deserves more attention is trade of energy-intensive commodities produced with hydrogen. Ammonia production, iron and steel making, and liquids for aviation, marine bunkers or feedstock for synthetic organic materials production so-called electrofuels or e-fuels that are part of a power-to-X strategy seem to be prime markets, but cost and efficiency barriers need to be overcome. This may offer an opportunity to accelerate global renewables deployment with economic benefits. A RENEWABLE ENERGY PERSPECTIVE 7 2. HYDROGEN AND RENEWABLES The G20 Karuizawa Innovation Action Plan on Energy Transitions and Global Environment for Sustainable Growth, released on 16 June 2019, calls on the International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA to develop the analysis of potential pathways to a hydrogen-enabled clean energy future, noting that hydrogen as well as other synthetic fuels can play a major role in in the clean energy future, with a view to long-term strategies. This report has been prepared in response. It is launched on the occasion of the Hydrogen Energy Ministerial Meeting on 25 September 2019 in Tokyo, Japan. The current policy debate suggests that now is the time to scale up technologies and to bring down costs to allow hydrogen to become widely used Hydrogen can help tackle various critical energy challenges. It offers ways to decarbonise a range of sectors – including intensive and long-haul transport, chemicals, and iron and steel – where it is proving difficult to meaningfully reduce emissions. It can also help improve air quality and strengthen energy security. In addition, it increases flexibility in power systems. Hydrogen is versatile in terms of supply and use. It is a free energy carrier that can be produced by many energy sources. Hydrogen can enable renewables to provide an even greater contribution. It has the potential to help with variable output from renewables, such as solar photovoltaics PV. Hydrogen is one of the options for storing energy from renewables and looks poised to become a lowest-cost option for storing large quantities of electricity over days, weeks or even months. Hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels can transport energy from renewable sources over long distances. At the same time, the widespread use of clean hydrogen in global energy transitions faces several challenges Today, hydrogen is almost entirely supplied from natural gas and coal. Hydrogen is already deployed at the industrial scale across the globe, but its production is responsible for annual CO 2emissions equivalent to those of Indonesia and the United Kingdom UK combined. Producing hydrogen from low-carbon energy is currently costly. However, the costs of producing hydrogen from renewable electricity are falling rapidly. Hydrogen must be used much more widely. Today, hydrogen is used mostly in oil refining and for the production of ammonia. For it to make a significant contribution to the clean energy transition, it must also be adopted in sectors where it is currently almost completely absent, such as transport, buildings and power generation. The development of hydrogen infrastructure is a challenge and is holding back widespread adoption. New and upgraded pipelines and efficient and economic shipping solutions require further development and deployment. Regulations currently limit the development of a clean hydrogen industry. Government and industry must work together to ensure that existing regulations are not an unnecessary barrier to investment.HYDROGEN 8 This IRENA report provides a more in-depth perspective on the nexus between hydrogen and renewable energy, on hydrogen supply economics in light of the rapidly falling cost of renewables and the role of hydrogen in the energy transition, as well as on existing challenges that have hampered hydrogen development to date. This report addresses the following questions What are the specific economic characteristics of green hydrogen from renewables and blue hydrogen from fossil fuels with CCUS today and in the future How can hydrogen accelerate the deployment of renewable energy, and how can renewable energy accelerate the deployment of hydrogen What aspects of the “green” hydrogen supply chain should be the main focus of research and development RD and innovation How can hydrogen contribute to the decarbonisation of end-uses in various sectors What will be the characteristics of future hydrogen trade This report builds on the unique IRENA datasets for renewable power generation cost, electrolysers, and future power and energy system configurations. These aspects are critical to understanding the various opportunities associated with hydrogen. The paper has four components Strategic considerations The hydrogen-renewable energy nexus Hydrogen economics Future hydrogen commodity trade in light of emerging applications.
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