资源描述：
Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019 October 2019 2 | Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019 | IEA 2019. All rights reserved. This is the fourth edition of the Southeast Asia Energy Outlook and it reflects very clearly the deepening relationship that the International Energy Agency IEA enjoys with the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN. The analysis covers energy markets, energy security, climate change and air pollution in a comprehensive way. It also responds directly to the priorities for co-operation that were agreed between ASEAN energy ministers and the International Energy Agency at our meeting in Singapore in October 2018. At this meeting, we focused in particular on the importance of regional power system interconnection, renewables integration, energy efficiency for cooling, investments and digitalisation. Less than a year later, at the meeting of the ASEAN Ministers of Energy in Bangkok in September 2019, I was able to report back with some of the key findings from this Southeast Asia Energy Outlook. The report not only covers the broad outlook for the region to 2040, but also contains insights from the additional in-depth IEA work on our priority topics. As ministers recognised in Bangkok, this underlines the role of the IEA as a key strategic partner of ASEAN, helping the region tackle its energy challenges across all fuels and all technologies. This report also reflects the IEA’s three main priorities under my leadership. Our strong and expanding engagement with the key players in global energy as they seek to meet growing energy demand in a secure, affordable and sustainable manner. Our attention to new risks to energy security even as we remain vigilant about traditional hazards. And our position as a global hub for expertise on clean energy transitions, notably on energy efficiency. Our emphasis – in this report and elsewhere in IEA work – is on real-world solutions to our energy dilemmas and needs. This Southeast Asia Energy Outlook was a collaborative effort under the overall direction of Tim Gould and the World Energy Outlook team, with major contributions from colleagues working on energy efficiency, renewable energy and system integration. I take this opportunity to thank all those, inside and outside the IEA, whose support and expertise helped make it possible. Dr. Fatih Birol IEA cutive Director Foreword Foreword 3 | Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019 | IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Energy in Southeast Asia Today’s energy trends Factors shaping the energy outlook Southeast Asia’s energy prospects to 2040 The Stated Policies Scenario Implications of the Stated Policies Scenario The Sustainable Development Scenario Table of contents Addressing Southeast Asia’s energy priorities The Future of cooling in Southeast Asia Regional power trading in Southeast Asia Investment in reliable, sustainable and affordable Power Annex ... 21 .. 22 .. 41 ..... 55 .... 57 ... 97 ... 105 .. 119 .. 121 ... 137 .. 160 ... 191 Key findings ... 5 4 | Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019 | IEA 2019. All rights reserved. The Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019 is the fourth edition of this World Energy Outlook Special Report. Reflecting its growing partnership with Southeast Asia, the International Energy Agency IEA has conducted these in-depth studies every two years since 2013. The studies highlight the opportunities and risks facing the ten member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN – Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam - as they look to meet rising energy demand in a secure, affordable and sustainable manner. This report does not forecast what the energy sector will look like in Southeast Asia. The aim is to consider different possible futures, and the ways that they could come about. The report considers two main scenarios. The Stated Policies Scenario STEPS assesses where today’s policy frameworks and ambitions, plus continued evolution of known technologies, might take Southeast Asia’s energy sector in the period to 2040. This scenario only takes into account policies that have been announced “stated” and does not take a position on how these policies might evolve in future. The aim is to hold up a mirror to the energy ambitions of today’s decision makers and provide a candid assessment of their implications for energy markets, security and emissions. The Sustainable Development Scenario SDS takes a different approach. Instead of setting out the starting conditions, it fixes the outcomes and works back to the present to see how they can be achieved. The outcomes are the key energy-related components of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals delivering on the Paris Agreement, achieving universal access to modern energy by 2030, and dramatically reducing energy-related air pollution. Whereas the Stated Policies Scenario describes “where the region is heading”, the Sustainable Development Scenario shows “where it would need to go” to meet these internationally agreed goals. This gap between these outcomes can be narrowed, but it will require much stronger policy actions. After a scene-setting discussion in the first chapter, the scenario projections across all fuels and technologies are described in detail in Chapter 2. In Chapter 3, we analyse in detail three key areas the future of cooling in the region; the scope to expand regional electricity trading, and the prospects for investment in the electricity sector. Introduction 5 | Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019 | IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Key findings | outheast A ia Energy utlook 2019 | IEA 2019. All rights reserved. 6 | Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019 | IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Southeast Asia’s economic and energy influence is growing Share of selected global economic and energy indicators in Southeast Asia Note GDP gross domestic product 2018, power purchasing parity [PPP]; CO2 carbon dioxide. 0246810GDP Population EnergydemandCoaldemandOildemandGasdemandCO2emissionsRenewablescapacity200020102018200020102018200020102018200020102018200020102018200020102018200020102018200020102018O2 Key findings 7 | Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019 | IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Any assessment of the outlook for global energy has to reckon with the growing weight of Southeast Asia. Home to nearly one-in-ten of the world’s population, the rapidly growing economies of the region are shaping many aspects of the global economic and energy outlook. Southeast Asia is a very diverse and dynamic region, but one common element is that policy makers across different countries have been intensifying their efforts to ensure a secure, affordable and more sustainable pathway for the energy sector. This includes action to facilitate investment in fuel and power supply and infrastructure, while focusing also on efficiency. The potential benefits of a well-managed expansion of the region’s energy system, in terms of improved welfare and quality of life for its citizens, are huge. There are encouraging indications in many areas, but also some warning signs. Rising fuel demand, especially for oil, has far outpaced production from within the region. Southeast Asia as a whole is now on the verge of becoming a net importer of fossil fuels for the first time. At the same time, Southeast Asia is well on the way to achieving universal access to electricity by 2030. Millions of new consumers have gained access to electricity since 2000, yet some 45 million people in the region are still without it today and many more continue to rely on solid biomass as a cooking fuel. Southeast Asia’s growth in electricity demand, at an average of 6 per year, has been among the fastest in the world, but a number of power systems in the region are facing significant financial strains. Since 2000, overall energy demand has grown by more than 80 and the lion’s share of this growth has been met by a doubling in fossil fuel use. Oil is the largest element in the regional energy mix and coal – largely for power generation – has been the fastest growing. This has underpinned theregion’s development and industrial growth, but has alsomade air pollution a major risk to public health and driven upenergy-related carbon dioxide CO2 emissions.Southeast Asia has considerable potential for renewable energy, but excluding the traditional use of solid biomass it currently meets only around 15 of the region’s energy demand. Hydropower output has quadrupled since 2000 and the modern use of bioenergy in heating and transport has also increased rapidly. Despite falling costs, the contribution of solar photovoltaics PV and wind remains small, though some markets are now putting in place frameworks to better support their deployment. and the region’s rise so far has been underpinned by fossil fuels Key findings 8 | Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019 | IEA 2019. All rights reserved. With today’s policy settings, energy demand continues to grow strongly to 2040 Change in total primary energy demand in selected regions in the Stated Policies Scenario Note Mtoe million tonnes of oil equivalent. 02004006008001 000Latin America Southeast Asia Middle East Africa China IndiaMtoeKey findings 9 | Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019 | IEA 2019. All rights reserved. prompting Southeast Asia to mobilise all fuels and technologies in response Primary energy demand in Southeast Asia in the Stated Policies Scenario Notes Mtoe million tonnes of oil equivalent. Other renewables include solar PV, wind, geothermal and modern use of bioenergy. Key findings 02004006008001 0001 2002018 2025 2030 2035 2040MtoeCoal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro OtherrenewablesTraditionaluse of solid biomass10 | Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019 | IEA 2019. All rights reserved. In the Stated Policies Scenario, which explores the implications of announced policy targets as well as existing energy policies, Southeast Asia’s overall energy demand grows by 60 to 2040. The region’s economy more than doubles in size over this period, and a rise of 120 million in the population is concentrated in urban areas. The projected rate of energy demand growth is lower than that of the past two decades, reflecting a structural economic shift towards less energy intensive manufacturing and services sectors, as well as greater efficiency. Nonetheless, it still represents some 12 of the projected rise in global energy use to 2040. All fuels and technologies play a part in meeting the growth in demand in this scenario. Southeast Asia’s oil demand surpasses 9 million barrels per day mb/d by 2040, up from just above 6.5 mb/d today. Oil continues to dominate road transport demand, despite an increase in consumption of biofuels. Electrification of mobility, with the partial exception of two and three wheelers, makes only limited inroads. This pathway suggests little change in Southeast Asia from today’s congested roads and poor urban air quality. Southeast Asia is one of a few regions where the share of coal in the power mix increased in 2018 and, based on today’s policy settings, coal demand is projected to rise steadily over the coming decades. This is largely to fuel new and increasingly efficient coal-fired power plants, although the headwinds facing these projects are growing – including increasing difficulty to secure competitive financing for new coal facilities. Natural gas faces competing pressures in Southeast Asia. It appears to be a good fit for the needs of the region’s fast-growing cities and lighter industries, as well as in the of liquefied natural gas [LNG] a way to displace costly oil use in some island communities. However, increasing reliance on imports makes the fuel less price-competitive. In our projections, it is industrial consumers rather than power plants that are the largest source of growth in gas demand. In the Stated Policies Scenario, the share of renewables in power generation rises from 24 today 18 of which is hydropower to 30 by 2040, but this still lags far behind the levels reached in China, India and some other economies in Asia. Wind and solar are set to grow rapidly from today’s low levels, while hydropower and modern bioenergy – including biofuels, biomass, biogas and bioenergy derived from other waste products – remain the mainstays of Southeast Asia’s renewable energy portfolio. Rising incomes, industrialisation and urbanisation are powerful forces behind the expansion of Southeast Asia’s energy system Key findings 11 | Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019 | IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Southeast Asia’s current pathway is heading for rising energy import bills Fossil fuel trade balance in Southeast Asia in the Stated Policies Scenario Key findings -400-300-200-10001002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040Billiondollars2018OilCoalGasTotal nettrade12 | Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019 | IEA 2019. All rights reserved. The pathway that Southeast Asia is on includes the realisation of some major energy policy goals, including the vital task of ensuring universal electricity access and some progress with diversification of the energy mix. Yet our Stated Policies Scenario also highlight some major potential risks. A widening gap between indigenous production and the region’s projected oil and gas needs results in a ballooning energy trade deficit. By 2040, Southeast Asia is projected to register a net deficit in payments for energy trade of over 300 billion per year, almost entirely due to imports of oil. This would also imply growing strains on government budgets, especially if subsidy policies remain in place that shield consumers from paying market-based energy prices. The large increase in imports also raises energy security concerns. In the case of oil, the region’s overall dependence on imports exceeds 80 in 2040, up from 65 today. The consequences of energy-related air pollution on human health remain severe. The number of annual premature deaths associated with outdoor and household air pollution in Southeast Asia rises to more than 650 000 by 2040, up from an estimated 450 000 in 2018. Some 175 million people across the region still remain dependent on the traditional use of solid biomass for cooking in 2040. The projected increase in fossil fuel consumption, particularly the continued rise in coal demand, is felt in a two-thirds rise in CO2emissions to almost 2.4 gigatonnes Gt in 2040. In most other parts of the world, the power sector’s share of t
展开阅读全文