2019海上风电展望报告.pdf

Oshore Wind Outlook 2019 World Energy Outlook Special Report Oshore Wind Outlook 2019Offshore Wind Outlook 2019 World Energy Outlook Special ReportThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t David Wilkinson independent consultant; Christopher Andrey and Maxime Chammas Artelys; Kirsten Adlunger German Environment Agency, Philipp Beiter National Renewable Energy Laboratory, United States, Jesper Breinbjerg Ministry of Energy, Utilities and Climate, Denmark, Karsten Capion Danish Energy, Sune Strøm Ørsted, Lukas Wienholt Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency, Germany and Christoph Wolter Danish Energy Agency. Our special thanks to the following organisations, without whose substantial support and co-operation this study could not have been achieved Danish Energy; the Danish Energy Agency; the Danish Ministry of Energy, Utilities and Climate; the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy; and Iberdrola. A high-level workshop on Offshore Wind Outlook, Paris, 13 May 2019 was organised to provide to this report. The participants offered valuable new insights, feedback and data for this analysis. Further details on these events are at www.iea.org/weo/events. IEA. All rights reserved.6 Offshore Wind Outlook 2019 | Special Report Many high-level government representatives and international experts from outside of the IEA have contributed to the process, from early consultations to reviewing the draft at a later stage, and their comments and suggestions were of great value. They include Ben Backwell Global Wind Energy Council GWEC Marco Baroni Independent consultant Harmeet Bawa ASEA Brown Boveri ABB Power Grids James F. Bennett US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management BOEM Fergus Costello Siemens Gamesa Ian Cronshaw Independent consultant Francois Dassa EDF Ruud de Bruijne Netherlands Enterprise Agency RVO Ralf Dickel Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, United Kingdom Giles Dickson WindEurope Jon Dugstad Norwegian Energy Partners NORWEP Fridtjof Fossum Unander Research Council of Norway David G. Hawkins Natural Resources Defense Council, United States Dolf Gielen International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA Bente Hagem ENTSO-E and Statnett Jan Hein Jesse JOSCO Energy Finance and Strategy Consultancy Gunnar Herzig World Forum Offshore Wind Masazumi Hirono Tokyo Gas Stéphane His Agence Française de Développement Takashi Hongo Mitsui Global Strategic Studies Institute, Japan Hu Jiang Beijing Tianrun New Energy Investment Jan Hylleberg Danish Wind Industry Association Hans Ejsing Jorgensen DTU Wind Energy, Germany Markus Klingbeil Shell Oliver Knight The World Bank, Energy Sector Management Assistance Program ESMAP Ken Koyama Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Masaomi Koyama Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan Francisco Laveron Iberdrola Isabel Murray Department of Natural Resources, Canada Esben Baltzer Nielsen Vattenfall Susanne Nies European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity ENTSO-E Karin Ohlenforst Global Wind Energy Council GWEC Pak Yangduk Korea Energy Economics Institute KEEI Jérôme Pécresse, GE Renewable Energy Jean-François Petit RES France Qin Haiyan China Wind Energy Association IEA. All rights reserved.Acknowledgements 7 Sven Reutzel Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy BMWi Manuel Rudolph German Environment Agency UBA Aaron Smith Principle Power Stuart Smith National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority, Australia Christopher Snary Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, United Kingdom James Steel Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, United Kingdom Volker Stehmann Innogy SE Ulrik Stridbæk, Ørsted Bert Stuij Netherlands Enterprise Agency Charlotte Unger Larson Swedish Wind Energy Association Rob van der Hage TenneT Noe Van Hulst Ministry of Economic Affairs Climate Policy, The Netherlands Andreas Wagner Stiftung Offshore-Windenergie Paul Wendring Prognos Masato Yamada MHI Vestas Offshore Wind The individuals and organisations that contributed to this study are not responsible for any opinions or judgments it contains. All errors and omissions are solely the responsibility of the IEA. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed to Laura Cozzi and Brent Wanner Directorate of Sustainability, Technology, and Outlooks International Energy Agency 9 rue de la Fédération 75739 Paris Cedex 15 France Email weoiea.org More ination about the World Energy Outlook is available at www.iea.org/weo IEA. All rights reserved.IEA. All rights reserved. Table of Contents 9 Table of Contents Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 cutive summary 11 Offshore Wind Outlook 2019 Offshore wind power today 15 Current status 15 Market size and key players 17 Offshore wind technology and perance 19 Offshore wind costs for projects commissioned in 2018 24 Offshore wind outlook to 2040 27 Global outlook 27 Regional outlook 28 Offshore wind costs, value and competitiveness 35 Opportunities for faster growth of offshore wind 48 Global technical potential for offshore wind 48 Improved economics for offshore wind 54 Increased demand for renewable hydrogen 55 Public acceptance 56 Uncertainties that could slow offshore wind growth 57 Developing efficient supply chains in new markets 57 Environmental concerns 57 Onshore grid development 58 Implications 61 Achieving environmental goals 61 Synergies with oil and gas activities 62 Enhanced energy security and affordability 64 Anns Annex A. Tables for scenario projections technical potential 67 Annex B. Assessing the technical potential of offshore wind 71 Annex C. Definitions 85 Annex D. References 93 IEA. All rights reserved.IEA. All rights reserved. cutive Summary 11 cutive Summary The need for affordable low-carbon technologies is greater than ever Global energy-related CO 2 emissions reached a historic high in 2018, driven by an increase in coal use in the power sector. Despite impressive gains for renewables, fossil fuels still account for nearly two-thirds of electricity generation, the same share as 20 years ago. There are signs of a shift, with increasing pledges to decarbonise economies and tackle air pollution, but action needs to accelerate to meet sustainable energy goals. As electrification of the global energy system continues, the need for clean and affordable low-carbon technologies to produce this electricity is more pressing than ever. This World Energy Outlook special report offers a deep dive on a technology that today has a total capacity of 23 GW 80 of it in Europe and accounts for only 0.3 of global electricity generation, but has the potential to become a mainstay of the world’s power supply. The report provides the most comprehensive analysis to date of the global outlook for offshore wind, its contributions to electricity systems and its role in clean energy transitions. The offshore wind market has been gaining momentum The global offshore wind market grew nearly 30 per year between 2010 and 2018, benefitting from rapid technology improvements. Over the next five years, about 150 new offshore wind projects are scheduled to be completed around the world, pointing to an increasing role for offshore wind in power supplies. Europe has fostered the technology’s development, led by the United Kingdom, Germany and Denmark. The United Kingdom and Germany currently have the largest offshore wind capacity in operation, while Denmark produced 15 of its electricity from offshore wind in 2018. China added more capacity than any other country in 2018. The untapped potential of offshore wind is vast The best offshore wind sites could supply more than the total amount of electricity consumed worldwide today. And that would involve tapping only the sites close to shores. The IEA initiated a new geospatial analysis for this report to assess offshore wind technical potential country by country. The analysis was based on the latest global weather data on wind speed and quality while factoring in the newest turbine designs. Offshore wind’s technical potential is 36 000 TWh per year for installations in water less than 60 metres deep and within 60 km from shore. Global electricity demand is currently 23 000 TWh. Moving further from shore and into deeper waters, floating turbines could unlock enough potential to meet the world’s total electricity demand 11 times over in 2040. Our new geospatial analysis indicates that offshore wind alone could meet several times electricity demand in a number of countries, including in Europe, the United States and Japan. The industry is adapting various floating foundation technologies that have already been proven in the oil and gas sector. The first projects are under development and look to prove the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of floating offshore wind technologies. IEA. All rights reserved.