2019国际能源展望.pdf

September 24, 2019 www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 International Energy Outlook 2019 with projections to 2050 U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration International Energy Outlook 2019 with projections to 2050 September 2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration Office of Energy Analysis U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This publication is on the Web at https//www.eia.gov/ieo This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Ination Administration EIA, the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA s data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other federal agencies. 2U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration International Energy Outlook 2019 is dedicated to the memory of Linda Doman. Linda led or contributed to the development of the International Energy Outlook for more than three decades. 3 U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration 4 Preamble 5 Consumption 16 Industrial 32 Buildings 48 Transportation 64 Electricity 84 Coal 104 Petroleum and other liquids 114 Natural gas 130 Energy-related carbon dioxide 146 References 160 Table of contents PageU.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration Preamble U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination AdministrationU.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration The U.S. Energy Ination Administration’s EIA International Energy Outlook IEO presents an analysis of long-term world energy markets in sixteen regions through 2050. Reference case projections in each edition of the IEO are not predictions of what is most likely to happen, but rather they are modeled projections under various alternative assumptions. The IEO projections are published under the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977, which requires that EIA analyze “international aspects, economic and otherwise, of the evolving energy situation” and “long-term relationships between energy supply and consumption in the United States and world communities.” EIA develops the IEO using the World Energy Projection System Plus WEPS, an integrated economic model that captures long-term relationships among energy supply, demand, and prices across regional markets under various assumptions. Energy market projections are uncertain because the events that shape future developments in technology, demographic changes, economic trends, and resource availability that drive energy use are fluid. The International Energy Outlook 2019 provides long-term world energy projections 7 U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration The Reference case reflects current trends and relationships among supply, demand, and prices in the future. It is a reasonable baseline case to compare with cases that include alternative assumptions about economic drivers, policy changes, or other determinants of the energy system to estimate the potential impact of these assumptions. The Reference case includes some anticipated changes over time – Expected regional economic and demographic trends, based on the views of leading forecasters – Planned changes to infrastructure, both new construction and announced retirements – Assumed incremental cost and perance improvements in known technologies based on historical trends This case does not include some of the potential future changes – Changes to national boundaries and international agreements – Major disruptive geopolitical or economic events – Future technological breakthroughs – Changes to current policies as reflected in laws, regulations, and stated targets that indicate future activity The Reference case provides a baseline to measure the impact of alternative assumptions 8U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration To see the impact of economic growth on energy consumption, EIA adjusted the assumptions about regional factors of growth in the High and Low Economic Growth cases. The resulting compound annual growth rates of global gross domestic product GDP during the projection period 2018–2050 vary from the Reference case as follows – 3.7 per year, High Economic Growth case – 3.0 per year, Reference case – 2.4 per year, Low Economic Growth case The High and Low Oil Price cases address the uncertainty associated with world energy prices. EIA altered the assumptions about both oil supply and demand to achieve higher and lower oil prices, as seen in the 2050 price of North Sea Brent crude oil in 2018 dollars – 185/barrel, High Oil Price case – 100/barrel, Reference case – 45/barrel, Low Oil Price case Side cases address two significant sources of uncertainty 9U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Future oil prices are a key source of uncertainty in the projections 11 World oil prices in three cases real 2018 dollars per barrel World energy consumption in three cases quadrillion British thermal units 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 High Oil Price Reference Low Oil Price High Oil Price Reference Low Oil Price OECD non-OECD history projections Low Oil Price case Reference case High Oil Price case U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration In addition to the Reference case, EIA includes a Low Oil Price case and a High Oil Price case that use different assumptions about future oil prices, based on different views of supply and demand for liquid fuels. In the Low Oil Price case, lower economic activity, especially in countries that are not a part of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development OECD, discourages energy consumption. Simultaneously but independently, greater resource availability and lower extraction costs encourage additional petroleum supplies, despite the reduced economic growth. The resulting lower oil prices encourage liquid fuels consumption and discourage energy conservation and fuel switching. In the High Oil Price case, energy demand increases because non-OECD economies grow more quickly than in the Reference case, despite tighter petroleum supply conditions. Although energy consumption rises, higher oil prices limit the growth in liquid fuels, and consumers conserve or switch to alternative fuels whenever possible. with greater energy consumption differences in non-OECD regions 12U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration Oil prices vary widely across the High Oil Price, Reference, and Low Oil Price cases 13 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2050 Low Oil Price case 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2050 High Oil Price case OPEC crude and lease condensate non-OPEC crude and lease condensate NGPL and other liquid fuels 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2018 2050 Reference case 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 High Oil Price Reference Low Oil Price High Oil Price Reference Low Oil Price OECD non-OECD history projections World petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day World petroleum and other liquid fuels production million barrels per day U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration In the Reference case, world production of crude oil and lease condensate increases from about 80 million barrels per day b/d in 2018 to 107 million b/d in 2050. Total liquids production increases from 100 million b/d in 2018 to 127 million b/d in 2050. Liquid fuels consumption increases 45 in non-OECD countries and falls 4 in OECD countries. In the High Oil Price case, world liquid fuels consumption in 2050 is 4 million b/d higher than in the Reference case. Primarily, emerging, non-OECD nations drive faster economic growth, which contributes to higher energy demand. In the High Oil Price case, proportionally higher amounts of crude oil are supplied by countries that are not part of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC. In the Low Oil Price case, world liquids consumption in 2050 is 1 million b/d higher than in the Reference case. Slower non-OECD economic growth assumptions lead to lower energy demand, but the lower prices mean that consumers use more liquid fuels. Low-cost producers located in OPEC countries supply more crude oil and condensate to the global marketplace. affecting where crude oil and condensate is produced 14U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration Energy consumption varies considerably across the High and Low Economic Growth cases 15 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 High Economic Growth Reference Low Economic Growth High Economic Growth Reference Low Economic Growth OECD non-OECD Gross domestic product trillion 2010 dollars history projections 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 High Economic Growth Reference Low Economic Growth High Economic Growth Reference Low Economic Growth OECD non-OECD Energy consumption quadrillion British thermal units U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration From 2018 to 2050, world real GDP increases by 3.0 per year in the Reference case, 3.7 in the High Economic Growth case, and 2.4 per year in the Low Economic growth case. In OECD countries, over the same time period, real GDP increases by 1.5 per year in the Reference case, 2.1 per year in the High Economic Growth case, and 1.1 per year in the Low Economic growth case. In non-OECD countries, during the same time period, growth is 3.8 per year in the Reference case, 4.6 in the High Economic Growth case, and 3.2 in the Low Economic Growth case. In the Reference case, world energy consumption totals 911 quadrillion British thermal units Btu in 2050287 quadrillion Btu in the OECD countries and 624 quadrillion Btu in the non-OECD countries. In the High Economic Growth case, world energy use in 2050 is about 1,090 quadrillion Btu. In the Low Economic Growth case, world energy use in 2050 is about 830 quadrillion Btu. with greater variation across non-OECD regions 16U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration Consumption U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination AdministrationU.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration World gross domestic product GDP trillion 2010 dollars, purchasing power parity PPP 0 50 100 150 200 250 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 non-OECD OECD Economic growth is highest in non-OECD countries in the Reference case – 19 history projections 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2010 2030 2050 OECD non-OECD World per capita GDP thousand 2010 dollars PPP U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration In the Reference case, combined gross domestic product GDP in the countries that are not part of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development OECD grows by 3.8 per year on average between 2018 and 2050, compared with 1.5 per year in the OECD countries. Since 1990, non-OECD countries have led world economic growth, accompanied by strong growth in energy demand in those countries. GDP per person, an indicator of a country s standard of living, increases similarly in OECD and non- OECD regions in absolute terms. However, the proportional increase in non-OECD countries is much larger, more than double a 150 increase between 2018 and 2050, as opposed to less than a 50 increase in OECD countries. where per capita GDP grows rapidly as a result of economic development 20U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 OECD 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 non-OECD Economic growth varies widely across non-OECD regions in the Reference case 21 Average annual percent change in GDP, 2018-2050 percent per year U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration Both OECD and non-OECD regions are diverse, with wide spreads in economic growth. In the non-OECD regions, India, China, other Asia, and Africa grow at an average rate of nearly 4 or higher. These regions were home to about two-thirds of the world’s population in 2018. Japan OECD and Russia non-OECD are the slowest-growing economies, partly as a result of declining populations and aging workforces. The projected GDP growth in China slows considerably compared with its growth from 2000 to 2010, when GDP increased by an average of about 10 per year. with the highest rates occurring in non-OECD Asia and Africa 22U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration World energy consumption quadrillion British thermal units 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 OECD non-OECD history projections World energy consumption rises nearly 50 between 2018 and 2050 in the Reference case 23 U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration In the Reference case, most increases in energy consumption come from non-OECD countries, where strong economic growth, increased access to marketed energy, and rapid population growth lead to rising energy consumption. In OECD countries, growth in energy consumption is slower as a result of relatively slower population and economic growth, improvements in energy efficiency, and less growth in energy-intensive industries. Energy consumption in non-OECD countries increases nearly 70 between 2018 and 2050 in contrast to a 15 increase in OECD countries. with almost all of the increase occurring in non-OECD countries 24U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration Non-OECD energy consumption by region quadrillion British thermal units 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 In the Reference case, non-OECD Asia accounts for most of the increase in energy use 25 history projections Asia Middle East Africa Americas Europe and Eurasia U.S. Energy Ination Administration www.eia.gov/ieo IEO2019 U.S. Energy Ination Administration More than half of the projected increase in g